ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:52 am

Wave emerging Africa.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309071650
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2013, DB, O, 2013090712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912013
AL, 91, 2013090712, , BEST, 0, 131N, 159W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this African area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115599&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9254
Age: 52
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 07, 2013 11:59 am

great model support for this one....might be our first cane of the season! I am excited about it...
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2297
Age: 28
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

#3 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:00 pm

IMO, this wave will affect how we feel about this season. Could be a powerful hurricane or this will bust.
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re:

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:20 pm

galaxy401 wrote:IMO, this wave will affect how we feel about this season. Could be a powerful hurricane or this will bust.

If this does become our first hurricane I don't expect it to become more than a upper-end Cat.1 or lower-end Cat.2 at best.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9594
Age: 46
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

#5 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:21 pm

Good chance at likely becoming our first hurricane but highly unlikely to impact anyone other then the capeverdes.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#6 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:32 pm

Cape Verdes are not used to significant TCs... could cause probs there
0 likes   

User avatar
pgoss11
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 702
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 3:55 pm

#7 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:37 pm

I'm hopeful this one will be our first cane of the season! :D Unlikely to affect anyone but please for the love of God can I see a beautiful cane spinning out in the Atlantic this year! :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 975
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:39 pm

0 likes   
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support

Florida1118
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1805
Age: 27
Joined: Sat Jun 19, 2010 12:57 pm
Location: Tampa, Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:48 pm

A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALREADY SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN A FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23499
Age: 46
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#10 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:55 pm

I certainly think this system has a decent chance of becoming our first hurricane of 2013. Hopefully this invest won't cause too much of an issue for the Cape Verde Islands. Once it gets past there, hopefully it will become a hurricane and we can track it knowing it likely won't impact anybody.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#11 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:00 pm

Mid-level dry air should not be an issue for several days:

700-500 MB RH 78 78 80 80 79 79 74 74 70 69 68 66 66

Little shear:

SHEAR (KT) 7 11 9 6 7 9 9 5 7 4 4 8 5

SSTs don't begin to go unfavorable until day 5:

SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.6 26.1

Though vertical instability is a little below average (should limit the intensity of convection):

TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6

No reason to suggest this won't become a hurricane other than the fact that it's 2013.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#12 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:02 pm

So many other systems have had model support and organization and gone poof, and this one like the rest is already losing convection as it comes off. Personally at this point I won't believe any individual wave will become anything more than a Dorian/Erin repeat until I actually see it.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:20 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013090718, , BEST, 0, 135N, 170W, 20, 1006, DB
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 07, 2013 1:26 pm

:darrow: Here's the latest instability as of today for the Tropical Atlantic, which once again is starting to go below normal.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
weathernerdguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Age: 21
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:44 pm

#15 Postby weathernerdguy » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:17 pm

Um..... :?: will this truly become a hurricane.?
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#16 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:30 pm

I'm still skeptical given the shear map...any signs that it is really relaxing?
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 26
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

Re:

#17 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'm still skeptical given the shear map...any signs that it is really relaxing?

:?:

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        10     6     5     7     6     9     7     6     5     8     2     5     3
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#18 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:52 pm

The models, especially the statistical ones, have a habit of developing systems too quickly. I highly doubt Cape Verde will get a cat 2 hurricane, but they could get an intensifying tropical storm.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

#19 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 07, 2013 5:11 pm

If anything it would become a hurricane right after passing the Cape Verde islands but even that seems too quick IMO.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

#20 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sat Sep 07, 2013 5:22 pm

30/80, but whatever it does, I hope it waits until after the 11th.
0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests