ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Maybe the September 11 record of the latest first hurricane will stay after all?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Weather enthusiast have our faith on this system, it's our best shot to have a hurricane. Of course we don't want it to be a hurricane near the Cape Verde islands but after that it can go as strong as it wants. Interesting days are ahead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
wouldn't be surprised if they upgrade this to at least a TD if not a TS so they can start issuing warnings and watches for the CV Islands. This system seems interesting, but hard to really jump on board with anything this season.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
For the record,here is the 2 AM EDT TWO.
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE REQUIRED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.
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Gustywind
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2013
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N17W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 1418W TO 10N17W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
W 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 25W AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER
IS OBSERVED IN THE STATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 18W-21W.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2013
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N17W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 1418W TO 10N17W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING
W 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 25W AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER
IS OBSERVED IN THE STATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 18W-21W.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
8 AM TWO=70%-90%
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED IF A DEPRESSION FORMS. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY LATER TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH TOWARD THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED IF A DEPRESSION FORMS. REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY LATER TODAY.
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Gustywind
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Tropical System Brewing in the Eastern Atlantic
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... t/17524311
Following short-lived Tropical Depression 8, another tropical system is showing signs of brewing in the far eastern Atlantic.
Odds favor a vigorous tropical low emerging off the African coast becoming the next tropical depression or storm in the Atlantic Basin.
What makes this low different from its predecessors that hinted at development but failed to do so is the atmosphere the low is moving into.
The low is tracking south of the disruptive wind shear and dry air that has kept this hurricane season relatively quiet thus far.
Without those hindrances in place, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects the low to gradually strengthen over the next couple of days.
The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will acquire the name Humberto.
How strong the system gets will depend on how long it maintains a westward heading. Eventually, it will make a sharper turn to the north and could encounter the drier air, stronger wind shear and even cooler water.
The longer the low delays that turn to the north, the more opportunity it has to strengthen. If it manages to become a hurricane before Thursday, it would prevent 2013 from setting the record for the formation of the latest first Atlantic hurricane in a season.
That record, for storms in the satellite era, is currently held by 2002 when Gustav reached hurricane status on September 11, according to AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
The low is expected to definitely make that northward turn prior to reaching the central Atlantic, sparing the Caribbean islands from being impacted.
Farther down the road, it appears that the system should not reach the United States.
The worst impacts to land will come over the Cape Verde Islands. Potentially flooding rain threatens to spread across the islands Monday through Tuesday. Depending on when the low takes its northward turn, the drenching could last through Wednesday.
Damaging winds and rough surf will become greater concerns if the low is a developing or strengthen tropical storm as it crosses or passes very close to the islands.
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... t/17524311Following short-lived Tropical Depression 8, another tropical system is showing signs of brewing in the far eastern Atlantic.
Odds favor a vigorous tropical low emerging off the African coast becoming the next tropical depression or storm in the Atlantic Basin.
What makes this low different from its predecessors that hinted at development but failed to do so is the atmosphere the low is moving into.
The low is tracking south of the disruptive wind shear and dry air that has kept this hurricane season relatively quiet thus far.
Without those hindrances in place, the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects the low to gradually strengthen over the next couple of days.
The next tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin will acquire the name Humberto.
How strong the system gets will depend on how long it maintains a westward heading. Eventually, it will make a sharper turn to the north and could encounter the drier air, stronger wind shear and even cooler water.
The longer the low delays that turn to the north, the more opportunity it has to strengthen. If it manages to become a hurricane before Thursday, it would prevent 2013 from setting the record for the formation of the latest first Atlantic hurricane in a season.
That record, for storms in the satellite era, is currently held by 2002 when Gustav reached hurricane status on September 11, according to AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
The low is expected to definitely make that northward turn prior to reaching the central Atlantic, sparing the Caribbean islands from being impacted.
Farther down the road, it appears that the system should not reach the United States.
The worst impacts to land will come over the Cape Verde Islands. Potentially flooding rain threatens to spread across the islands Monday through Tuesday. Depending on when the low takes its northward turn, the drenching could last through Wednesday.
Damaging winds and rough surf will become greater concerns if the low is a developing or strengthen tropical storm as it crosses or passes very close to the islands.
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Gustywind
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Next Named Storm Possible
September 08, 2013; 5:38 AM
An impressive tropical wave off the African coast is expected to become Humberto by early this week.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362
September 08, 2013; 5:38 AM
An impressive tropical wave off the African coast is expected to become Humberto by early this week.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 1683763362
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Gustywind
- Category 5
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- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2013
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 17N18W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N18W TO 11N18W. WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING W 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 25W AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 18W-22W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IF A DEPRESSION FORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS BY LATER TODAY...EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT
FORM.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2013
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 17N18W
THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 13N18W TO 11N18W. WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING W 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE E ATLC E OF 25W AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N
BETWEEN 18W-22W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IF A DEPRESSION FORMS.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS BY LATER TODAY...EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT
FORM.
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Extratropical94
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hurricanes1234
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (70%/90%)
No Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued yet? Strange... 
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (70%/90%)
ASCAT only caught the eastern part of circulation. Pass was made at 7:06 AM EDT.
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WeatherGuesser
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion (70%/90%)
Both the Euro and GFS move this west at 192 hours +
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Both west and weaker once westward movement begins. Euro still takes this over Cape Verde, GFS south and west.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Both west and weaker once westward movement begins. Euro still takes this over Cape Verde, GFS south and west.
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