ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

looks like a 4.5 at most

?? Even conservative CIMSS ADT has it at 4.6.

that is very near a 4.5

[ozonepete]

looks like a 4.5 at most

?? Even conservative CIMSS ADT has it at 4.6.

that is very near a 4.5

Lol, yeah. I was saying that when CIMSS says 4.6 on a TC like this I think 5.0.

[ozonepete]

Pretty sure it's been moving NNE (maybe 15 degrees or so) the last few hours.

[supercane4867]

11pm advisory still at 75kt but pressure down to 982mb

[Macrocane]

It looks to me like Humberto has intensified a bit tonight with colder cloud tops, a "thicker" CDO and the eye trying to show on IR.

[fci]

Well, Mother Nature made us wait seemingly forever, but she has finally given us a full fledged hurricane to track in the Atlantic basin.

Humberto has become a large and rather formidable tropical cyclone. It looks as if will be around for quite some time to come. I will be interested to see what happens in about 5 days after the storm finishes traverses over cooler SSTs and moves into the Central Atlantic.

Maybe mother nature saved the best for last this season.

Oh, this is far from last.
The season is just starting and the next 6 weeks or so could be a roller-coaster ride.
I have no scientific data to support me but Mother Nature doesn't take a season off and thus far we have had a fluky quiet season.
There is a lot of heat out there and she has to expend a lot of energy before she shuts down the season.
This is not the last one.....

[RL3AO]

Still looks like a 4.5, which is what SSD went with. Once you get into the eye pattern, it becomes much less subjective.

[Blown Away]

Very rare to have a cane in this area...Strange year so far...

[RL3AO]

Light gray surrounds eye = 5.0

Eye adjustment: Dark gray eye surrounded by light gray = 0. However, subtract 0.5 for poorly defined eye.

Final DT = 4.5

[RL3AO]

TXNT22 KNES 121217
TCSNTL

A. 09L (HUMBERTO)

B. 12/1145Z

C. 21.2N

D. 28.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DG EYE EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY LG FOR DT=4.5.
MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

----------

Guys from SSD see the same thing so I'm not going crazy.

I think Humberto has just about peaked. South side is starting to look worse with each frame.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 75kts.

AL, 09, 2013091212, , BEST, 0, 214N, 290W, 75, 982, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1011, 400, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, D

[CrazyC83]

Probably peaked at 0000Z. Starting to weaken it appears.

[cycloneye]

...HUMBERTO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 29.0W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

Read 11 AM Discussion here.

[CrazyC83]

A wall of shear awaits...rapid weakening probably will be taking place in the next 12-24 hours unless it can somehow insulate itself.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 75kts on 18z Best Track.

AL, 09, 2013091218, , BEST, 0, 225N, 291W, 75, 982, HU

[hurricaneCW]

Humberto's current look reminds me of a typical storm/minimal hurricane that goes up the east coast of the U.S, almost like an Irene type.

[cycloneye]

Interesting intensity forecast at 5 PM going up on days 4-5.

INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Hammy]

Interesting intensity forecast at 5 PM going up on days 4-5.

INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Fairly surprising, they aren't forecasting the level of weakening they were before. Could the large size and moisture envelope be insulating it somewhat from the drier air as it passes through in a few days?

[MaineWeatherNut]

From the 5pm Discussion:

LATER ON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE
WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
RELAX A LITTLE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HINTS AT
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING BY LATE IN PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED
HERE AT DAYS 4-5.

[hurricanes1234]

I have a strange feeling that if Humberto re-strengthens, it would be even stronger than its primary peak intensity of 85mph/982 mbar. I wouldn't rule out a Category 2 hurricane. The most aggressive model here is showing a peak of 115 mph, a minimal major hurricane. This storm could end up being our #1 contestant for ranking up the below-average ACE. Should be interesting.

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