ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Cloud tops are quite cool at the moment, let's see if it stays like this, and doesn't collapse over the water.

Infrared Unenhanced:
http://imageshack.us/f/202/d3w5.jpg/

AVN Image:
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/203/m2nl.jpg/

I personally think that this would be significantly stronger than past Cape-Verde storms thus far in 2013, but I don't see it passing Category 1 status right now. Of course all of this can change in an instant.

By the way, I really do not remember how to post these images correctly, so please, anyone, correct me where I went wrong.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

convection is really building now

[hurricanes1234]

INFRARED UNENHANCED


AVN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Cloud tops are quite cool at the moment, let's see if it stays like this, and doesn't collapse over the water.

Infrared Unenhanced:
http://imageshack.us/f/202/d3w5.jpg/

AVN Image:
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/203/m2nl.jpg/

I personally think that this would be significantly stronger than past Cape-Verde storms thus far in 2013, but I don't see it passing Category 1 status right now. Of course all of this can change in an instant.

By the way, I really do not remember how to post these images correctly, so please, anyone, correct me where I went wrong.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

To post an image, just put "[img]" (without the quotation marks) on the left side of the image link and "[/url]" (without the quotation marks) on the right side. Just be sure not to do this for animations as it slows the page loading time down.

[RL3AO]

If this doesn't become a hurricane, it will be an amazing statement about the global tropics in 2013. This should be that open Atlantic storm that really racks up some ACE.

[hurricaneCW]

I was hoping we could get the latest hurricane record but I have a feeling this one could develop quickly and we could fall just short.

[gatorcane]

18Z RAL update:

At 1800 UTC, 07 September 2013, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL91) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.5°N and 17°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al912013/

[hurricanes1234]

Cloud tops are quite cool at the moment, let's see if it stays like this, and doesn't collapse over the water.

Infrared Unenhanced:
http://imageshack.us/f/202/d3w5.jpg/

AVN Image:
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/203/m2nl.jpg/

I personally think that this would be significantly stronger than past Cape-Verde storms thus far in 2013, but I don't see it passing Category 1 status right now. Of course all of this can change in an instant.

By the way, I really do not remember how to post these images correctly, so please, anyone, correct me where I went wrong.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

To post an image, just put "[img]" (without the quotation marks) on the left side of the image link and "[/url]" (without the quotation marks) on the right side. Just be sure not to do this for animations as it slows the page loading time down.

Thanks very much. I also saw that you could obtain a direct link, which is how I posted those IR and AVN images in the second post. Anyway, talking about 91L, it would really be something if it ends up like Erin, Dorian, or even Chantal. But I think it would at least make it to 65 or 70 mph as a solid-looking storm, and not a dried out one.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WeatherGuesser]

I was hoping we could get the latest hurricane record but I have a feeling this one could develop quickly and we could fall just short.

One of those "Missed it by THAT much" things.

[cycloneye]

There was a wind shift early this morning in Dakar,Senegal when the low pressure passed near that city. Also,the pressure went doen to 1007 mbs.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

40%/80%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Gustywind]

First appearence as a special feature...


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2013

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N17W TO 19N16W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED A LONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N17W AND
REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MOTION ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CONVECTION AS THE WAVE EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 17W-19W WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 12W-20W.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013090800, , BEST, 0, 135N, 176W, 20, 1007, DB

[cycloneye]

Saved image. Deep convection bloosoming. Those who live in the CV islands may have to prepare for bad weather.

[hurricanes1234]

Here's the IR unenhanced image as well. This wave is different to nearly all of the previous waves this season, because convection blossomed over water, rather than collapsed. I really think this has a good shot at hurricane status, if not, something at least a little stronger than what we've been having so far.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

60%/90%

UPDATED...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS
COULD BE NEEDED. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS BY MONDAY REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.

[hurricanes1234]

Okay, this is definitely developing! I would estimate a tropical depression by midday tomorrow if these trends continue. Maybe the season is now kick-starting!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

I thought that considering this system has the best chance to be the first hurricane of the 2013 season,this 91L thread would be active with comments.

[pgoss11]

We've all been burned one too many times this season. Hard to get excited about anything the models foresee. I for one think this will be our first hurricane this year.
Not an official forecast.

[CrazyC83]

A lot of people are being cautious - waiting for proof.

Maybe Hurricane Watches and Warnings will be needed for Cape Verde?