ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion - 70% - 90%

#601 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:40 am

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE HUMBERTO...LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES...HAS REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...ADVISORIES COULD BE
RE-INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
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#602 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:56 am

Image

latest visible
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion - 70% - 90%

#603 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:49 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A
DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THAT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
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#604 Postby ninel conde » Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:11 pm

it collapsed for a second time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion - 70% - 90%

#605 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:18 pm

8PM TWO: 80%-90%

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INCREASING
AND DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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#606 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:43 pm

Is it regenerating cause I don't see it on the map above anymore?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#607 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:29 pm

They're probably fixing the map. By the way, what are you guys thinking Humberto will peak as? I see the most aggressive model is back up to 115 mph.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#608 Postby Macrocane » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:31 pm

Humberto looks good right now with convection right over the center, if it maintains the convection I guess advisories will be initiated at 3 am (central american time).
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#609 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:21 pm

Looks better than Ingrid thats all I have to say. :lol:
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#610 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:28 pm

Looks like its at least try to wrap around the western side despite the heavy shear.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#611 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 5:34 am

Will the wind shear ever abate? Because according to the first TWO, it should have abated since yesterday.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion - 80% - 90%

#612 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:38 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion- Is renumbered

#613 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:57 am

We have once again Humberto.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942013_al092013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309161329
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion

#614 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:31 am

AL, 09, 2013091612, , BEST, 0, 271N, 426W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 160, 0, 0, 100, 1015, 140, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Ex HUMBERTO - Discussion

#615 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:39 am

Well, this should stir up some excitement around here!
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#616 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:48 am

Another zombie storm. I mean, how many this year? Goodness gracious....
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#617 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:57 am

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...
...FORECAST TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WHILE TURNING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 43.2W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Re:

#618 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:02 am

Tireman4 wrote:Another zombie storm. I mean, how many this year? Goodness gracious....

It's a mighty zombie as forecast to become a hurricane again unlike what we had before :P
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#619 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:14 am

VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO
RELAX SOME AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND SHIFTS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OF
THE CYCLONE. THE RELATIVE RELAXATION IN SHEAR FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS...ALONG WITH A TRACK OVER WARMER WATERS...SHOULD
ALLOW HUMBERTO TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
A POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON
DAYS 3-5 IS LIKELY TO SPEED UP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO HAVE OCCURRED BY DAY 5. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND
LGEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 27.2N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 28.2N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 29.5N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 30.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 31.1N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 33.1N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 36.7N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 44.7N 32.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#620 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:31 am

The NASA Global Hawk will go on Tuesday and Wednesday.

GLOBAL HAWK NA871 TO FLY HUMERTO TUESDAY WITH
A TAKEOFF OF 17/1400Z. GLOBAL NA872 WILL FLY HUMBERTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A TAKEOFF OF 18/1400Z. DROPS TO BE MADE.
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