ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

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#621 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:39 am

Looks like one heck of an extratropical transition in store...could be a very deep, intense storm by then.
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#622 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:42 am

This is the third storm to redevelop this season. Adds to the weirdness of this season.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#623 Postby Iune » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:07 pm

Similar to this year, 2001 had four storms redevelop; Chantal, Dean, Erin, and Felix.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#624 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:22 pm

18z Best Track up to 40kts.

AL, 09, 2013091618, , BEST, 0, 272N, 434W, 40, 1003, TS
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#625 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:45 pm

Are the Azores likely to be affected by this in any way?
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#626 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:45 pm

Convection getting blown off again. Center seems to be moving south now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif
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#627 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:49 pm

galaxy401 wrote:Convection getting blown off again. Center seems to be moving south now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif


Looks more like it was ejected south...like it was shot out of a convective gun :wink:
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#628 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:51 pm

Looks like another under-performer--just two days ago models had this eventually becoming a Cat 3, and now its being pummeled with shear that is again increasing contrary to what the models show. Very likely that Humberto part II will remain a sheared minimal to moderate tropical storm from what I'm seeing.
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Re:

#629 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:53 pm

Hammy wrote:Looks like another under-performer--just two days ago models had this eventually becoming a Cat 3, and now its being pummeled with shear that is again increasing contrary to what the models show. Very likely that Humberto part II will remain a sheared minimal to moderate tropical storm from what I'm seeing.


Is it just me, or have the models been particularly bad this year?
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Re: Re:

#630 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 16, 2013 2:02 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
Hammy wrote:Looks like another under-performer--just two days ago models had this eventually becoming a Cat 3, and now its being pummeled with shear that is again increasing contrary to what the models show. Very likely that Humberto part II will remain a sheared minimal to moderate tropical storm from what I'm seeing.


Is it just me, or have the models been particularly bad this year?


They've been terrible this year. I remember last year the GFS was spot-on in predicting Beryl as well as with Debby's track, and the Euro did quite well on several other storms. It seems that whatever upgrade the models were given this year have utterly destroyed whatever reliability that most of the models used to have, and now they seem to overreact and take weaker storms (or non-existent storms) to major hurricane or simply not develop things that end up developing.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#631 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 16, 2013 2:45 pm

Saved loop.

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#632 Postby Riptide » Mon Sep 16, 2013 2:57 pm

Damn, what happened to the circulation; looks like it's rotating around a broader vortex.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#633 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:05 pm

man, it looks like the center of low level circulation just got chucked south of the "smokestack" of convection
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#634 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:26 pm

Thats one of the cooler sheared TC loops I've ever seen.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#635 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:31 pm

I now have a slight (just a slight) feeling this shear will increase, like Pewa earlier this year. The models were forecasting all sorts of strange intensities for Pewa, and one even went up to nearly Category 5 status. Time and time again, the official forecasts had to be lowered, because the TUTT hampering it refused to abate. Eventually, the storm perished in the face of strong shear. What was Pewa's peak strength? 75 mph.

In no way am I insulting or degrading the models, in fact, they are extremely useful and a necessity for the official forecasts, but I am once again outlining the pattern of the wind shear in this erratic season. Please do NOT mistake my post for wishcasting.

Remember, I still think Humberto could strengthen, and potentially past storm force, but as Hammy rightfully pointed out, we should not be too surprised if only modest deepening takes place, assuming wind shear does not abate.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#636 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 4:05 pm

Future intensification phase rely mostly on interaction with the trough
As long as Humberto can maintain some structure it will have the opportunity to become a non-tropical look hurricane
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#637 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 5:11 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Future intensification phase rely mostly on interaction with the trough
As long as Humberto can maintain some structure it will have the opportunity to become a non-tropical look hurricane


Can there be non-tropical hurricanes? Will the NHC still issue advisories on it if it becomes non-tropical?
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#638 Postby HenkL » Mon Sep 16, 2013 5:48 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Can there be non-tropical hurricanes? Will the NHC still issue advisories on it if it becomes non-tropical?

Extratropical storms with hurricane force winds are not unusual on higher latitudes, but they will not be named as a hurricane and the NHC will not issue advisories.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#639 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 6:36 pm

Riptide wrote:Damn, what happened to the circulation; looks like it's rotating around a broader vortex.

"SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN
CIRCULATION CENTER OF HUMBERTO TODAY...MAKING AN ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION MORE DIFFICULT THAN NORMAL."

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/al09/al092013.discus.026.shtml?
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#640 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:15 pm

What do you all think about Humberto? Do you all think it has much more time as a tropical cyclone?

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