ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#641 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:00 pm

TXNT22 KNES 170007
TCSNTL

A. 09L (HUMBERTO)

B. 16/2345Z

C. 26.6N

D. 43.4W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...EXPOSED LLCC SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO CONVECTION
BEING GREATER THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM THE LLCC. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL
BULLETIN UNLESS A T1.0 IS WARRANTED
.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#642 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Guys, do NOT be alarmed, if this is the end of Humberto. I am not saying it is going to happen, but the LLC is weakening.

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#643 Postby galaxy401 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:48 pm

What does the best track say?
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Re:

#644 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:49 pm

galaxy401 wrote:What does the best track say?


AL, 09, 2013091700, , BEST, 0, 269N, 433W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 90, 1014, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, M,
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#645 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:05 am

Some discussion that they would have reclassified it Subtropical Storm Humberto, but they felt it wasn't going to last in its current form. This was what the models were indeed thinking...

The 40 kt intensity is probably too low IMO; Dvorak is useless with these kind of systems.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#646 Postby TheEuropean » Tue Sep 17, 2013 11:26 am

I can't rule out, this system may become something like Epsilon in 2005. showers are wrapping around, looks better now, I think.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#647 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 17, 2013 1:55 pm

Found this from a few Hours ago.

20130917 1745 29.8 42.7 Subtropical 09L HUMBERTO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/HUMBERTO.html
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#648 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 2:06 pm

Humberto currently doesn't look like that subtropical-ish IMO
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#649 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:04 pm

TheEuropean wrote:I can't rule out, this system may become something like Epsilon in 2005. showers are wrapping around, looks better now, I think.


Nice comparison. You could be right.

Luis, this could be our first annular cane in a while if it makes hurricane again, which a lot of the models still say it will. Starting to look annular already. Since an annular form is very stable, it has a better chance of holding on and getting to hurricane again with this structure. But first it needs to get more symmetrical again. Way too asymmetrical at the moment.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#650 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:05 pm

:uarrow: Yeah oz. It has been a few years that there has not been an annular cane in North Atlantic basin. :)
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#651 Postby ozonepete » Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:19 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: Yeah oz. It has been a few years that there has not been an annular cane in North Atlantic basin. :)


I can't remember the last one. Anyone have an idea? I will try to look later this evening.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#652 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:23 pm

ozonepete wrote:
cycloneye wrote::uarrow: Yeah oz. It has been a few years that there has not been an annular cane in North Atlantic basin. :)


I can't remember the last one. Anyone have an idea? I will try to look later this evening.


The last bona-fide annular hurricane here may have been Isabel in 2003.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#653 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:14 pm

Humberto's best track has been downgraded to 35 knots. Sorry to say, but it looks really bad right now.

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#654 Postby TheEuropean » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:30 am

Yes, yesterday it looked much better, now it is nothing compared to Epsilon.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#655 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:02 pm

Continues to look very sad right now, unless something drastic happens, I anticipate no further strengthening, beyond possible brief 5 mph fluctuations. :crying:

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#656 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:55 pm

Best Track down to a TD. I must remark that this doesn't even look like a tropical cyclone to me, just an area of small clouds with some rotation. :(

AL, 09, 2013091900, , BEST, 0, 321N, 435W, 30, 1009, TD,

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#657 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:48 pm

R.I.P

AL, 09, 2013091918, , BEST, 0, 330N, 425W, 30, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HUMBERTO, S,
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#658 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:55 pm

NHC has been struggling lately in predicting wind shear to become favorable. The shear remained strong for Humberto, Ingrid, and 95L.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#659 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 2:03 pm

Weak low-level swirl appears to have dissipated. Humberto is being absorbed by the approaching front...

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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#660 Postby hurricanes1234 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:29 pm

Just reminds us of how hostile the conditions are out here.

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