ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 20% - 70%

#41 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:40 pm

70% is good....wont be long now...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 10% - 60%

#42 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:45 pm

ROCK wrote:with that 12Z NAVGEM run I think FL should be worried.... :lol:


lol that is funny... see if any of ensemble memembers for the gfs do that.. hey I would get to chase !! been way too long..
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:47 pm

The more time it spends over water, the more intense it might get...the curse of the I might strike again...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 10% - 60%

#44 Postby TexWx » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:53 pm

Houstonia wrote:
TexWx wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Jim Cantore might actually have a tropical weather assignment this year (lol)..


I don't want Cantore anywhere near my house, if you get my drift.


Don't say DRIFT!!! :lol:

*out-of-staters, I am apologizing in advance for myself and all my fellow Texans. The idea of a large rainfall is making all of us a bit... punchy with glee. :sun:



Where Cantore goes, storms don't.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 20% - 70%

#45 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:55 pm

:uarrow:

Yeah, exactly ... hope TWC sends Cantore to Tampico.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 10% - 60%

#46 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:56 pm

[
Where Cantore goes, storms don't.[/quote]


What about the Oklahoma tornadoes in May? Not sure you can say that all the time..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 10% - 60%

#47 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 12:57 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ROCK wrote:with that 12Z NAVGEM run I think FL should be worried.... :lol:


lol that is funny... see if any of ensemble memembers for the gfs do that.. hey I would get to chase !! been way too long..



:D they dont..well at least not yet anyway :wink:

that NAVGEM run just obliterates that ridge with 2 short waves. If that was the EURO I would be worried...well sort of... :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 20% - 70%

#48 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:00 pm

NAVGEM and FIM are poor, IMO et al
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#49 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:00 pm

Any chance this could spin up before reaching the Yucatan?
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Re:

#50 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:01 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Any chance this could spin up before reaching the Yucatan?


20% chance... :lol: it looks good right now....but then again it looked good yesterday at this time also...
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#51 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:03 pm

I'm surprised they didn't go 30% with 48 hour chances.
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Re:

#52 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:06 pm

Hammy wrote:I'm surprised they didn't go 30% with 48 hour chances.


Is close to Yucatan Penninsula.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 10% - 60%

#53 Postby Houstonia » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:09 pm

TexWx wrote:
TexWx wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Jim Cantore might actually have a tropical weather assignment this year (lol)..


I don't want Cantore anywhere near my house, if you get my drift.


Don't say DRIFT!!! :lol:

*out-of-staters, I am apologizing in advance for myself and all my fellow Texans. The idea of a large rainfall is making all of us a bit... punchy with glee. :sun:

Where Cantore goes, storms don't.


That's what I meant. Don't drift away, as-yet-unnamed-storm!! :wink:
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#54 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:12 pm

good bit of news is that the models are not indicating a very strong system and are keeping this broad. That said, models do often underdo the intensity.

The flooding remains concerning, however
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#55 Postby Dave C » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:24 pm

Running the visable loop seems like around 18n and 86 looks like possible circulation?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 20% - 70%

#56 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:31 pm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

thats where the best vort is currently.....low level convergence is spread out all over the place...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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#57 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:34 pm

10/1745 UTC 18.0N 85.8W TOO WEAK 93L -- Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 20% - 70%

#58 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:37 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2013091018, , BEST, 0, 180N, 861W, 20, 1009, DB 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 10% - 60%

#59 Postby Kalrany » Tue Sep 10, 2013 1:51 pm

Houstonia wrote:
TexWx wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Jim Cantore might actually have a tropical weather assignment this year (lol)..


I don't want Cantore anywhere near my house, if you get my drift.


Don't say DRIFT!!! :lol:

*out-of-staters, I am apologizing in advance for myself and all my fellow Texans. The idea of a large rainfall is making all of us a bit... punchy with glee. :sun:


Eh..... Only (ONLY) if this stays weak and just a rainy event. I have NO desire to deal with the Gulf of Mexico in my living room ever again! :) However, it would be nice to put a dent into the congoing drought. So let's ba a bit careful on what we wish for, ok?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion - 20% - 70%

#60 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Sep 10, 2013 2:15 pm

It does look like a circulation might be getting organized.

Image
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