ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

It does appear to have more of a overall spin to it...


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[Airboy]

I think this will be a TD or TS before it hits the Yucatan

[Sanibel]

I think the MJO and season have finally turned on. Things are starting to cook up. This is like Fernand II with beefier convection. These Caribbean home brews might be a bad sign for making up for the early season.

[Aric Dunn]

latest microwave show what could be a weak circ developing. clearly a good mid level rotation at the moment. the low flow at least indicates broad circ.

[BigA]

The 850 mb vorticity is still fairly disorganized/weak, but 93L has increased in organization throughout the day. It has the look of a system beginning to get its act together, though there appears to be nothing at the surface just yet. Interesting question as to whether it develops a closed circulation before it reaches the Yucatan. Though the models have near-consensus on development, they don't develop it until it reaches the BOC.

[Aric Dunn]

The 850 mb vorticity is still fairly disorganized/weak, but 93L has increased in organization throughout the day. It has the look of a system beginning to get its act together, though there appears to be nothing at the surface just yet. Interesting question as to whether it develops a closed circulation before it reaches the Yucatan. Though the models have near-consensus on development, they don't develop it until it reaches the BOC.

agreed, the increased timing on organization may allow it gain a little more latitude during the next few days.

[MGC]

93L looks to have organized this afternoon. Good bit of midlevel spin. Hopefully moves inland before anything gets going at the surface.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

If this can form an LLC before first landfall and hold it into the Yucatan, this could be a doozy.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I do believe we will see a tropical storm out of this once it reaches the Bay of Campeche (maybe before the Yucatan given how it's organizing) but I doubt it becomes very intense overall. This is expected to be a monsoonal-type gyre as depicted by the global models, and these types of disturbances generally need many, many days to organize significantly. 93L will have 2-3 days.

Heavy rainfall will be the main threat.

[Wx_Warrior]

From JB Twetter (@BigJoeBastardi)

"Ingrid to be will cross Yucatan tom and probably spin up to a hurricane in s Gulf. My track s of Texas, but heavy rain threat LRGV"

[cycloneye]

Will it track like Hermine of 2010? It would be very welcomed in Texas for sure.

[Ntxw]

Will it track like Hermine of 2010? It would be very welcomed in Texas for sure.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2010H/HERMINE/track.gif

It would be very welcomed by us Texans. South Texas Storms did mention a Hermine like track possibility, 12z and 18z GFS sure does follow suit.

[Alyono]

Hermine is an inappropriate analog as it was a fast mover. This will be a slow mover

[Kalrany]

Hermine is an inappropriate analog as it was a fast mover. This will be a slow mover

Does that increase the likelyhood of a more northbound track?

[Hammy]

Judging by low cloud movement the winds appear to be offshore at Belize and out of the west north of Roatan, so there is at least some surface spin there. Does anyone know when the next scatterometer overpass over the NW Gulf is?

[Aric Dunn]

looking pretty good for so early on in development. its looking like it might end up being a TD before the yucatan if it keeps up the trend throughout the night.

latest scat.. show broad rotation at the surface if it can become more defined overnight may be looking at a td late tomorrow

[Alyono]

Hermine is an inappropriate analog as it was a fast mover. This will be a slow mover

Does that increase the likelyhood of a more northbound track?

Not sure... but I'm thinking more of a Frances-like flood event

[HurriGuy]

I know Texas needs rain, but this thing needs to throw a band to south central Louisiana.Starting to wonder where the rain went. The ground is very dry and grass is scortched. Just a band of rain.....

[Ptarmigan]

Not sure... but I'm thinking more of a Frances-like flood event

I am thinking this storm could be like Frances as well as forecast models show a large storm. Hermine of 2010 was more of an average sized tropical storm.

[ROCK]

I know Texas needs rain, but this thing needs to throw a band to south central Louisiana.Starting to wonder where the rain went. The ground is very dry and grass is scortched. Just a band of rain.....

Not sure where that is at but I have SW LA to Tampico right now...I know that is a big area but I think that ridge is going to break down with that short wave even more so than progged. The GFS, FIM8, FIM9 have a handle on it to some extent. The NAVGEM lost it on 18Z. The EURO hasnt come around I think...hope to see it tonight...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.