ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[jeff]

Hermine is an inappropriate analog as it was a fast mover. This will be a slow mover

Does that increase the likelyhood of a more northbound track?

Not sure... but I'm thinking more of a Frances-like flood event

I could see a Hermine wound system only bigger and much slower. Impacts will be long lasting and far reaching across much of the W/NW Gulf. ET surge is pushing 2ft on the upper coast by Friday using GFS wind grids with assumption of a TD in the far southern Gulf. Long fetch is going to bring a lot of water toward the TX coast and slow movement is going to allow tidal piling over many high tide cycles along with long period swells producing wave run-up. Think the tides will end up higher on the upper coast than ET surge is showing probably closer to 3-4 ft over the weekend. 4.0 ft is when we start to get into problems on the barrier Islands and on the west sides of both GLS and Matagorda Bays. If the GFS or the FIM runs come close to verifying surge is going to be a problem on the upper coast...could easily see Frances levels.

Rainfall is another topic...18Z GFS is impressive with totals up to and over 10 inches across much of coastal, central into N TX. Regardless of the drought this magnitude rainfall will cause serious flooding

Then again it could end up well south into MX, but I am not biting just yet that this goes into MX like all the rest so far this season.

[cycloneye]

No change in the % at 8 PM TWO:

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT...AND
ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES OVER LAND...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Hermine is an inappropriate analog as it was a fast mover. This will be a slow mover

Does that increase the likelyhood of a more northbound track?

Yes. The longer this system meanders, the more the ridge positioned over the South will break down and allow for a weakness to develop to pull a storm north.

[ROCK]

Not sure... but I'm thinking more of a Frances-like flood event

I am thinking this storm could be like Frances as well as forecast models show a large storm. Hermine of 2010 was more of an average sized tropical storm.

1998 Frances was huge extending all the way to LA....came in around CC....seems like a good track. I do think it has potential to make cane status...

[TheStormExpert]

What about Hurricane Alex from 2010? Strength-wise no, but size-wise seems like a good analog, and track could be similar as well.

[jeff]

Not sure... but I'm thinking more of a Frances-like flood event

I am thinking this storm could be like Frances as well as forecast models show a large storm. Hermine of 2010 was more of an average sized tropical storm.

1998 Frances was huge extending all the way to LA....came in around CC....seems like a good track. I do think it has potential to make cane status...

Frances (98) was moving WNW at landfall out of the central/NW Gulf...she did not come up from the Bay of Campeche. Current GFS track is closest to Hermine only slower and larger. FIM tracks would be a rare NW to NNW to N to NNE track kind of rounding the entire TX coast. That has happened before, but not in the recent past decades.

[jeff]

:uarrow: What about Hurricane Alex from 2010? Strength-wise no, but size-wise seems like a good analog, and track could be similar as well.

Not sure I see this getting as strong as Alex. Could easily see a minimal hurricane and a large area of TS/gale force winds. Could be a classic case of a large weak hurricane producing some decent storm surge.

[KatDaddy]

Invest 93L looking better organized and a rather large system that will become TS Ingrid in the GOM this weekend. Models are showing shift further N will a possible landfall between Tampico, MX and Brownsville, TX. A few models are further N toward the Corpus Christi area. Still many days out and not even in the GOM yet however very well needed tropical rains may become reality for a large part of TX early next week. Interesting days ahead.

[ronjon]

Well katdaddy, rock, and other texas posters, I hope you guys get some decent rains outta future Ingrid. I know it's been a long hot summer with that heat ridge near you. Thinking cat 1 or 2 storm coming in near corpus now. But being 5-6 days out, it'll change no doubt.

[Annie Oakley]

Jeff-what is "ET' surge? sorry if that is a stupid question ha ha

Evening Tide lol?

Thanks

[Houstonia]

Any idea what the tides will be like in Galveston this weekend? I've got family visiting - they are driving back north on Monday. We plan to go to Galveston on Sunday - it would be nice to take them on the ferry and have it be a bit of a thrill ride for them.

[Javlin]

Hey I hope we all get some rain but not buying serious development with three (big)ULL's floating around in the Atlantic/Carib ATTM.These are spawning like cat litters!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[Nikki]

Houstonia,

I read somewhere between 7 and 9 feet by Sun night...don't know how accurate that is.

[ROCK]

Hey I hope we all get some rain but not buying serious development with three (big)ULL's floating around in the Atlantic/Carib ATTM.These are spawning like cat litters!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

ULL's can also help vent and create outflow channels.....


here is another analog storm "Audrey"....if 93L is going to make a run at a hurricane in 2013 conditions why not try to be all it can be!!!

[HurriGuy]

Looks like it developing before reaching the Yucatan is quickly diminishing. Anyone know when this is scheduled to emerge back over open water once done with land?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 93, 2013091100, , BEST, 0, 180N, 868W, 20, 1008, DB

[Annie Oakley]

cyclone comin' thru! As usual.........nice

[stormlover2013]

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore Watch the western US/Canada ridge flip to trough. Texas ridge dies and shifts eastward. 6-10 z500 anomaly http://t.co/f36AJKzhsH

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore If there is a TC in position to come north, yes. 93L may do just that if it doesn't form too quickly.

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore -PDO w/ warm NPAC forces trough into the continent as wavelengths get longer in the Fall. This is forcing the TX ridge out.

[Nikki]

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore Watch the western US/Canada ridge flip to trough. Texas ridge dies and shifts eastward. 6-10 z500 anomaly http://t.co/f36AJKzhsH

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore If there is a TC in position to come north, yes. 93L may do just that if it doesn't form too quickly.

@TropicalTidbits: @JimCantore -PDO w/ warm NPAC forces trough into the continent as wavelengths get longer in the Fall. This is forcing the TX ridge out.

Thank you! I appreciate it!

[jeff]

Jeff-what is "ET' surge? sorry if that is a stupid question ha ha

Evening Tide lol?

Thanks

Et surge = extra-tropical storm surge modeling which is run off the GFS forecast model. It is mainly used for large extra-tropical systems in the winter time such as Nor'easter and did very well with Sand last year and Ike in 2008. For large wind field tropical systems like Ike and Sandy the effect from storm surge can behave very much like a large mid latitude system and ET surge can pick up on this if what the GFS is feeding it is correct. Wont have any SLOSH runs until we are within about 48 hours of landfall.

Tidal piling and wave run-up is already in place on the TX coast due to the long ESE to E fetch over the central/N Gulf for the past few days. This will gradually build swell action which piles more water on the beaches. Backing surface winds (NE or ENE) on the N side of any southern Gulf tropical system results in the transport of sea water toward the coast (Ekman Transport) and helps trap the high tides on the coast. Even if the system stays well south both of these processes are going to increase the tides on the TX coast...upper coast would be most favored for increased tides with ENE winds while longer period swells are aimed at the lower TX coast. With tides high those high energy swells will deliver their energy into the base of the dunes and likely result in some erosion at high tide.