ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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Rgv20
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#1001 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID SLOWS DOWN AS IT MAKES A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 96.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


Looks like La Pesca Mx might be the landfall for Ingrid..
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#1002 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:54 pm

Based on that dropsonde, it looks to be up to 70 kt now.
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Re:

#1003 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:55 pm

Rgv20 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID SLOWS DOWN AS IT MAKES A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 96.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


Looks like La Pesca Mx might be the landfall for Ingrid..


I totally agree. That western turn is getting overdue and in a few hours even a sharp turn will miss to the north. Of course it could be sharp and could curve west-southwest but the cloud motions don't show it at all yet.
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#1004 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:55 pm

Recon confirms Ingrid is indeed a hurricane still.

I highly doubt she was earlier this morning though
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Re:

#1005 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:56 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Recon confirms Ingrid is indeed a hurricane still.

I highly doubt she was earlier this morning though


Agreed, it probably was a tropical storm at 1200Z and 1800Z (for the best track).
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#1006 Postby JGrin87 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:58 pm

She sure is an ugly looking hurricane.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1007 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:01 pm

Could be some interaction with Manuel and the terrain is delaying the westward turn. The mountains are so high between them that there is less mid-level interaction (where the steering currents are) than you would normally expect. Still there has to be some interaction from 15,000 feet to 30,000 feet and who knows what that's doing - it's very complex. I'm sure the models take it into account to some degree but I doubt they account for the topography very well at all. So it's also entirely possible that the models expected more interaction between them to cause a western turn in Ingrid but in reality the mountains are delaying the turn.
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#1008 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:02 pm

Supports an intensity of 70 KTS.

Surprising given its appearance. Cat 2 looking possible for landfall tomorrow.

Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.
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Re:

#1009 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:06 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Supports an intensity of 70 KTS.

Surprising given its appearance. Cat 2 looking possible for landfall tomorrow.

Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.

I wouldn't be so sure. Radar, recon, and an earlier microwave pass all support a partial eyewall structure already and we should see more convection and more convective organization as a) wind shear lessens and b) we enter diurnal maximum. I have my bets on it actually looking pretty good.
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Re: Re:

#1010 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:11 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Supports an intensity of 70 KTS.

Surprising given its appearance. Cat 2 looking possible for landfall tomorrow.

Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.

I wouldn't be so sure. Radar, recon, and an earlier microwave pass all support a partial eyewall structure already and we should see more convection and more convective organization as a) wind shear lessens and b) we enter diurnal maximum. I have my bets on it actually looking pretty good.


Ingrids always been a bit of an ugly duckling. :lol:

We'll see how she looks tomorrow! conditions are very good right now.
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Re: Re:

#1011 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:15 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Supports an intensity of 70 KTS.

Surprising given its appearance. Cat 2 looking possible for landfall tomorrow.

Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.

I wouldn't be so sure. Radar, recon, and an earlier microwave pass all support a partial eyewall structure already and we should see more convection and more convective organization as a) wind shear lessens and b) we enter diurnal maximum. I have my bets on it actually looking pretty good.


While I've seen worse it is getting better looking now. And I guess we all have learned at some point in life that looks aren't everything and looks can be deceiving, lol.
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#1012 Postby HurricaneTracker2031 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:20 pm

My forecast on Ingrid and 94L: http://goo.gl/CCIUgI
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1013 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:22 pm

I'm getting pretty certain they will shift the track north at 11PM. I just can't see any west turn coming soon. It's not that the models' forecast turn won't happen, it's just that it looks like that forecasted turn will come significantly later. Look at the water vapor loop. No westward flow ahead of it and looks like it's even blocked a little to the west - quite possibly by Manuel's circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1014 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:24 pm

00z Best Track remains at 65kts.

AL, 10, 2013091600, , BEST, 0, 229N, 961W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 1008, 140, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, D
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1015 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:35 pm

ozonepete wrote:I'm getting pretty certain they will shift the track north at 11PM. I just can't see any west turn coming soon. It's not that the models' forecast turn won't happen, it's just that it looks like that forecasted turn will come significantly later. Look at the water vapor loop. No westward flow ahead of it and looks like it's even blocked a little to the west - quite possibly by Manuel's circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html


This will also allow it to have more time over water, correct? aka more time to intensify.
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#1016 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:36 pm

Ingrid reminds me of Ida (2009). Ugly looking yet surprisingly strong.
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Re:

#1017 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Ingrid reminds me of Ida (2009). Ugly looking yet surprisingly strong.

Not surprising either knowing that this season has pretty much been behaving like an El Nino season.
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Re: Re:

#1018 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:44 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Ingrid reminds me of Ida (2009). Ugly looking yet surprisingly strong.

Not surprising either knowing that this season has pretty much been behaving like an El Nino season.


Um, no. In an El nino season we'd be on the D storm. :lol:
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#1019 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:45 pm

Still has some very cold cloud tops, but is very ragged and disorganized looking.

Image
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1020 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:47 pm

Time_Zone wrote:
ozonepete wrote:I'm getting pretty certain they will shift the track north at 11PM. I just can't see any west turn coming soon. It's not that the models' forecast turn won't happen, it's just that it looks like that forecasted turn will come significantly later. Look at the water vapor loop. No westward flow ahead of it and looks like it's even blocked a little to the west - quite possibly by Manuel's circulation.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html


This will also allow it to have more time over water, correct? aka more time to intensify.


Yup. Also, every degree further north this gets is better for all concerned. Less rain for the parts of Mexico where they don't need it and more for south Texas where they do. I don't mind saying I'm rooting for that. :wink:
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