ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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Rgv20
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#1021 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 7:58 pm

Would not mind upping the totals especially in the Western Valley :P

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Hurricane Ingrid is forecast to make landfall Monday about 200 miles south of Brownsville. The threat of additional heavy rainfall will exist today and Monday, with still a good chance of rain Tuesday through Thursday. Rain chances will begin to taper off Friday and through the weekend. Heaviest rainfall is expected over the extreme Lower Valley with rainfall totals decreasing north and west. -Campbell-
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1022 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:01 pm

:uarrow: Good luck! Those numbers are very encouraging. Though of course you'll need to worry about flooding.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1023 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:13 pm

Clearly blocked to the west and so climbing north very slowly. I'm quite sure based on the satellite loops. And yes there is westerly shear there too which makes it hard to tell how much is steering and how much is shear, but I still think there has to be a track adjustment at 11PM.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1024 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:23 pm

Big hot tower there. Looks right over the center.

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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1025 Postby ROCK » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:30 pm

Agree with OZ on blocked west from Manuel...
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1026 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:39 pm

ROCK wrote:Agree with OZ on blocked west from Manuel...


And from WV sat looks like ridge is breaking down over you in Texas. I am very curious what NHC says in discussion at 11 and in track forecast. God knows they always take a more conservative approach, which I totally agree with, but there has to be an adjustment north. (Yeah I know I've said this enough now, lol.)
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Re:

#1027 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:42 pm

Time_Zone wrote:Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.


TimeZone, meet Earl (1998).

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Hurricane_Earl_02_sept_1998_2028Z.jpg
Last edited by tolakram on Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed hotlinked image
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Re: Re:

#1028 Postby hurricanekid416 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:46 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.


TimeZone, meet Earl (1998).

[ img]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Hurricane_Earl_02_sept_1998_2028Z.jpg[/img]




That looks like Andrea from this year lol
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Re: Re:

#1029 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:47 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.


TimeZone, meet Earl (1998).

[img ]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Hurricane_Earl_02_sept_1998_2028Z.jpg[/img]


Ahhhh my eyes, my eyes!!!!!


In all seriousness though, Ingrid is looking very poor this evening.
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Re: Re:

#1030 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:59 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:
Time_Zone wrote:Could be the messiest looking category 2 hurricane in history.

TimeZone, meet Earl (1998).

Try this, a heavily sheared major hurricane with little or no eyewall

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That's Bonnie of 1998 and was a CAT3 at the time according to Best Track
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1031 Postby Nikki » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:03 pm

ozonepete wrote:
ROCK wrote:Agree with OZ on blocked west from Manuel...


And from WV sat looks like ridge is breaking down over you in Texas. I am very curious what NHC says in discussion at 11 and in track forecast. God knows they always take a more conservative approach, which I totally agree with, but there has to be an adjustment north. (Yeah I know I've said this enough now, lol.)



So this would make the landfall further North into Mexico?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1032 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:03 pm

:uarrow: Yeah, supercane, there are literally dozens of examples, some quite recent, that make Ingrid look really good.
Last edited by ozonepete on Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1033 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:05 pm

Nikki wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
ROCK wrote:Agree with OZ on blocked west from Manuel...


And from WV sat looks like ridge is breaking down over you in Texas. I am very curious what NHC says in discussion at 11 and in track forecast. God knows they always take a more conservative approach, which I totally agree with, but there has to be an adjustment north. (Yeah I know I've said this enough now, lol.)



So this would make the landfall further North into Mexico?


Yes, absolutely. It all depends on when it turns west. That turn is getting overdue. We'll just have to wait for the NHC's explanation discussion at 11PM. They know better than any of us, including that they will say they are not sure what it's doing if they're not. This one is a real forecasting challenge now.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1034 Postby Nikki » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:09 pm

So this would make the landfall further North into Mexico?[/quote]

Yes, absolutely. It all depends on when it turns west. That turn is getting overdue. We'll just have to wait for the NHC's explanation discussion at 11PM. They know better than any of us, including that they will say they are not sure what it's doing if they're not. This one is a real forecasting challenge now.[/quote]

I can honestly say I am glad I don't have to forecast these storms....I am glad it may move far enough away from Manuel not to affect the same area(s) he is affecting!
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#1035 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:22 pm

Shear looked to have lessened some earlier but it appears strong again. The convection over the center is becoming very ill-defined and east-weighted again.

Probably still Manuel. It's producing seriously cold convection just offshore despite being overland.

:roll:
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1036 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:24 pm

I finally see some westward shift in the clouds over northern Mexico. So the turn should start soon, but it's going to come later than forecast earlier so the landfall will probably be shifted north of the last advisory.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1037 Postby tailgater » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:25 pm

Looks to moving about due west now from long range radar.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1038 Postby tolakram » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:36 pm

Live ir loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-94&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10


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#1039 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:46 pm

Looking at VDMs on the recon thread, it looks like Ingrid may be shifting to the WNW slowly.
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#1040 Postby Alyono » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:46 pm

a cat 2... really?

Pressure again rising as the shear is not abating as was forecast. if anything, the shear has increased just a bit this evening. Looking like a landfall of a low end cat 1 now
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