ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
jeff
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 830
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 6:14 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1041 Postby jeff » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:50 pm

ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Good luck! Those numbers are very encouraging. Though of course you'll need to worry about flooding.


Not sure there will be much flooding on the TX side of the river. Bigger issues may come along the Rio Grande from what falls in MX and dumps down on the river although flood control systems are running in the 10-25% range given the extended drought in the area..so the a better capability to handle the rainfall than in ALEX (2010). Although if 10-15 inches does verify within the MX part of the Rio Grande basin some flooding along the river would be possible.

Problem in S TX would be from training of bands moving inland off the Gulf and flat low lying terrain which makes ponding the big issue.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1042 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:53 pm

jeff wrote:
ozonepete wrote::uarrow: Good luck! Those numbers are very encouraging. Though of course you'll need to worry about flooding.


Not sure there will be much flooding on the TX side of the river. Bigger issues may come along the Rio Grande from what falls in MX and dumps down on the river although flood control systems are running in the 10-25% range given the extended drought in the area..so the a better capability to handle the rainfall than in ALEX (2010). Although if 10-15 inches does verify within the MX part of the Rio Grande basin some flooding along the river would be possible.

Problem in S TX would be from training of bands moving inland off the Gulf and flat low lying terrain which makes ponding the big issue.


Thanks for the local detail. Makes a lot of sense.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1043 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 10:42 pm

I doubt this will strengthen anymore, the wind shear is refusing to abate, as someone pointed out. Maybe 80 mph if anything.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4449
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1044 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 10:56 pm

:uarrow: Agreed. It's done remarkably well with all of the shear and will probably maintain until landfall but there is no room here for any more than a slight strengthening. As has been forecast al along, the real threat is the really heavy, flooding rain which will soon get onshore and could continue for a few days.
0 likes   

MaineWeatherNut
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Joined: Sun Sep 01, 2013 5:06 pm

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1045 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Sun Sep 15, 2013 10:59 pm

I believe the Eye is clearing out...

Image
0 likes   
The content of this post does NOT constitute official forecast and should not be used as such. They are the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or Storm2K. For official information, please refer to the local meteorological centers of respective areas.

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2026
Age: 20
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1046 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:54 pm

MaineWeatherNut wrote:I believe the Eye is clearing out...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg

The center is embedded within the purples in the western convective blob you see on this image.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9071
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1047 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 16, 2013 12:38 am

so much for a Monday landfall....Manuel wont let her attm...IMO....she might not make it and be pushed back south if she doesnt make a run at the coast.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6450
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1048 Postby Alyono » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:18 am

MaineWeatherNut wrote:I believe the Eye is clearing out...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg


an eye?

nighttime visible shows the center is nearly exposed
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17554
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1049 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 5:40 am

Ingrid is making landfall very shortly:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 109464
Age: 61
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1050 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:00 am

Makes landfall.

...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR LA PESCA...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 97.8W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wkwally
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 205
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Humble, Texas

Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1051 Postby wkwally » Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:20 am

Light rain here in Brownsville. All of the schools have been closed due to the possibility of flooding.
0 likes   

User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9071
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1052 Postby ROCK » Mon Sep 16, 2013 9:20 am

I was looking at the wrong blob..:))...hope it's not too bad down there.
0 likes   

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2224
Age: 31
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#1053 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:28 am

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
832 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...RAIN BANDS OF INGRID INCREASING FLOOD RISK...

.RAIN BANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUES OVERNIGHT.

TXZ252>257-162145-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FF.A.0001.130916T1332Z-130917T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-
COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...
EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
832 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL CAMERON...COASTAL
WILLACY...HIDALGO...INLAND CAMERON...INLAND WILLACY AND STARR.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* SOIL CONDITIONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY REMAIN VERY SATURATED.
URBAN AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE AREAS OF STANDING WATER ON ROADWAYS
AND IN FLOOD DITCHES. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WOULD LIKELY
LEAD TO URBAN OR FLASH FLOODING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$

JGG




SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
800 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

TXZ248>257-161700-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...
PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
800 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS. ANY
FUNNEL CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SHOULD NOT REACH THE GROUND.
HOWEVER...YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IN THE UNLIKELY
EVENT A FUNNEL DOES REACH THE GROUND.

$$

54
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3398
Age: 34
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

#1054 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:48 am

Landfall as a tropical storm, I've had a feeling for days that it wouldn't be a hurricane at landfall. Models always forecast the shear to relax, and have a horrible track record with this as often it will increase, and this was running head-on into moderate to strong shear the entire time. Hopefully Texas can at least receive some needed rain out of this.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17554
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1055 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:56 am

Just some scattered showers/storms for south Texas today. Good thing they closed schools in Brownsville. The kids can go out and play in the rain, something not too common down there lately.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26792
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1056 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:34 am

Landfall intensity was 50-55 kt I would guess? The data does suggest it was a hurricane last night, but definitely not at landfall.
0 likes   

User avatar
baytownwx
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:38 am

Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1057 Postby baytownwx » Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:58 am

Can a pro-met explain why Ingrid appears to have split in two? I know her main center already made landfall, but is there any chance the second blob to her southeast could develop? Isn't this what the GFS suggested could happen with a low pressure sinking back down into the boc? Thanks!
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

CrazyC83
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 26792
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1058 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 12:09 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

NOT OFFICIAL - but here is what I would have as the BT for Ingrid (I didn't change any points, and ignored the wind field sizes, but otherwise in HURDAT2 format)

Code: Select all

AL102013,            INGRID,
20130912, 1200,  , TD, 19.5N,  92.7W,  25, 1006,
20130912, 1800,  , TD, 19.7N,  93.7W,  30, 1004,
20130913, 0000,  , TD, 19.7N,  93.8W,  30, 1003,
20130913, 0600,  , TS, 19.7N,  94.5W,  35, 1001,
20130913, 1200,  , TS, 19.3N,  95.2W,  40,  999,
20130913, 1800,  , TS, 19.1N,  95.3W,  45,  996,
20130914, 0000,  , TS, 19.3N,  95.2W,  50,  992,
20130914, 0600,  , TS, 19.6N,  95.2W,  55,  991,
20130914, 1200,  , HU, 20.3N,  94.6W,  65,  987,
20130914, 1800,  , HU, 21.0N,  94.5W,  75,  984,
20130915, 2100, I, HU, 21.4N,  94.6W,  80,  982,
20130915, 0000,  , HU, 21.7N,  94.7W,  80,  984,
20130915, 0600,  , HU, 22.2N,  95.2W,  70,  986,
20130915, 1200,  , TS, 22.4N,  95.6W,  60,  989,
20130915, 1800,  , TS, 22.7N,  95.9W,  60,  990,
20130916, 0000,  , HU, 23.0N,  96.2W,  70,  986,
20130916, 0600,  , HU, 23.4N,  96.9W,  65,  989,
20130916, 0900, S, TS, 23.7N,  97.7W,  60,  991,
20130916, 1130, L, TS, 23.7N,  97.7W,  55,  993,
20130916, 1200,  , TS, 23.7N,  97.8W,  55,  993,


Some notes:

* I estimate that the peak intensity - 80 kt with a 982 mb pressure - was at 2100Z September 14 (Saturday afternoon) when the NOAA plane recorded 82 kt winds from a dropsonde and SFMR readings 75-80 kt.
* Also included are the landfall time (1130Z September 16) and a point to clearly show it weakened to a tropical storm (0900Z September 16).
* I estimate it also weakened to a tropical storm for a time on September 15, but briefly returned to hurricane intensity.
0 likes   

Airboy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 240
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 10:41 am

#1059 Postby Airboy » Mon Sep 16, 2013 12:55 pm

Almost looks like the blob of convection south of the main body is detaching itself to create a new entity.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 17554
Age: 60
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1060 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:31 pm

Amazing, the ASCAT satellite had a direct hit on Ingrid just before noon today. It never passes over a developing disturbance when we don't know if there's a circulation or not. ;-) No TS winds indicated in the Gulf. I expect a downgrade shortly. Remnant low this evening.

Image
0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests