ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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#981 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:23 pm

The dreaded pinhole eye. Rapid deepening trend?
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#982 Postby TJRE » Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:37 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The dreaded pinhole eye. Rapid deepening trend?


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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp


While typical mature storms have eyes that are a few dozen miles across, rapidly intensifying storms can develop an extremely small, clear, and circular eye, sometimes referred to as a pinhole eye. Storms with pinhole eyes are prone to large fluctuations in intensity, and provide difficulties and frustrations for forecasters.[7]

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eye_(cyclone)


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Last edited by TJRE on Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#983 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:38 pm

[quote="TJRE"]pin hole eye

:uarrow:

That's not a pinhole eye actually. That's the pinnacle of a very cold cloud top on an overshooting top (the thunderstorm top has blown through above the equilibrium level.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#984 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:41 pm

A pinhole eye on satellite would show up dark on visible or RGB and warmer color on the IR satellite images. those IR images have a super cold color at the center. and this is way too weak to have a pinhole eye.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#985 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:46 pm

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-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY

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#986 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 5:52 pm

Been getting some Showers on and off through out the day here in the RGV...Nothing to heavy so far but hey Rain is Rain! :D
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Re:

#987 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:06 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Been getting some Showers on and off through out the day here in the RGV...Nothing to heavy so far but hey Rain is Rain! :D


Any rain is good rain for you guys. :) Hope you get a lot more from this. It's quite possible.

Btw, if you look at HurricaneDrew92's loop just above there, you can see a lot of dying Manuel's moisture is now funneling into Ingrid's south and southeastern flanks. This should help sustain and more likely ramp up the convection. This in turn may make Ingrid the super rain-maker for Mexico that the NHC has been warning about.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#988 Postby TJRE » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:12 pm

ozonepete wrote:
TJRE wrote:pin hole eye

:uarrow:

That's not a pinhole eye actually. That's the pinnacle of a very cold cloud top on an overshooting top (the thunderstorm top has blown through above the equilibrium level.


O.P.
does this relate to any trend in strength???
T-

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#989 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:16 pm

The term pinhole eye is thrown around entirely too much. We've not seen one in the Atlantic since Wilma; they're very rare.

That being said, Ingrid is making an attempt to organize its inner core. Much better defined than earlier.

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#990 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:22 pm

Center looks to be under the strongest convection now. I doubt the 0z satellite estimates will use a shear pattern again. Looks like embedded in black for a DT of 5.0. However, I'm sure they will use a MET of 3.5 or 4.0.

Either way, it looks more organized then it did 12 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#991 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:32 pm

TJRE wrote:O.P.
does this relate to any trend in strength???
T-

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Yes, TJ. An overshooting top on a thunderstorm means that the main updraft is so powerful (strong vertical acceleration) that the air parcels in it punch thru the top of the atmospheric layer past where they should have stopped. Of course they can't get too much further and finally stop, but you can clearly see them on visible and infrared as a kind of super cold mountain peak. Such thunderstorms that do this near the center of a TC circulation are called "hot towers." Recent research in the last 10 years or so have shown that one or more hot towers firing near the COC usually mean intensification is underway. You will almost always see them in RI or in cat 4s and 5s. So this is an indicator that Ingrid may be intensifying again. I'd like to see a few more to be sure.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#992 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:40 pm

I don't know if it's just me but sure seems like Ingrid is moving NW and has not turned west yet. I don't even see any indication the turn is coming soon either, at least by the low and mid-level cloud motion. This could cause landfall further north than the NHC point. I'm not saying a lot further north, but maybe 50 or even more miles north of the current thinking.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#993 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:41 pm

ozonepete wrote:I don't know if it's just me but sure seems like Ingrid is moving NW and has not turned west yet. I don't even see any indication the turn is coming soon either, at least by the low and mid-level cloud motion. This could cause landfall further north than the NHC point. I'm not saying a lot further north, but maybe 50 or even more miles north of the current thinking.


Recon still supports a NW movement.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#994 Postby TJRE » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:41 pm

Yes, TJ. An overshooting top on a thunderstorm means that the main updraft is so powerful (strong vertical acceleration) that the air parcels in it punch thru the top of the atmospheric layer past where they should have stopped. Of course they can't get too much further and finally stop, but you can clearly see them on visible and infrared as a kind of super cold mountain peak. Such thunderstorms that do this near the center of a TC circulation are called "hot towers." Recent research in the last 10 years or so have shown that one or more hot towers firing near the COC usually mean intensification is underway. You will almost always see them in RI or in cat 4s and 5s. So this is an indicator that Ingrid may be intensifying again. I'd like to see a few more to be sure.



thanks for the tutorial Phil


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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#995 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:42 pm

ozonepete wrote:I don't know if it's just me but sure seems like Ingrid is moving NW and has not turned west yet. I don't even see any indication the turn is coming soon either, at least by the low and mid-level cloud motion. This could cause landfall further north than the NHC point. I'm not saying a lot further north, but maybe 50 or even more miles north of the current thinking.

Recon and extended radar from Brownsville both show it's inching northwestward.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#996 Postby ozonepete » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:42 pm

RL3AO wrote:
ozonepete wrote:I don't know if it's just me but sure seems like Ingrid is moving NW and has not turned west yet. I don't even see any indication the turn is coming soon either, at least by the low and mid-level cloud motion. This could cause landfall further north than the NHC point. I'm not saying a lot further north, but maybe 50 or even more miles north of the current thinking.


Recon still supports a NW movement.


Then it better start turning soon or it will miss to the north.
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#997 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:46 pm

Recon says this may not be a hurricane as it has 60kt SFMR and looking at that this may have not been a hurricane at all today as it looks better structurally and seems to have an inner core now

68kt SFMR, this is a hurricane but IMO wasn't earlier

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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#998 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:46 pm

ozonepete wrote:I don't know if it's just me but sure seems like Ingrid is moving NW and has not turned west yet. I don't even see any indication the turn is coming soon either, at least by the low and mid-level cloud motion. This could cause landfall further north than the NHC point. I'm not saying a lot further north, but maybe 50 or even more miles north of the current thinking.


Further North is better for Rain chances in the Valley!...It looks like Recon Fixes does indeed show a NW movement so far.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#999 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:47 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Then it better start turning soon or it will miss to the north.


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Recon fixes plotted against 18z position and track.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Hurricane - Discussion

#1000 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:47 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...INGRID SLOWS DOWN AS IT MAKES A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...
...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 96.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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