WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

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#21 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:30 pm

JTWC recurves Man-Yi (16W) south-east of Japan, could impact Tokyo as a weak typhoon though.

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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:50 pm

supercane4867 wrote:WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1318 MAN-YI (1318) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 21.0N 145.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 23.3N 141.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 27.3N 137.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 151800UTC 33.5N 140.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Could I ask where you got that from, supercane? I'd guess its from the JMA, but I cant find it.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 3:53 pm

Hurricane_Luis wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:WTPQ20 RJTD 121800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1318 MAN-YI (1318) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 121800UTC 21.0N 145.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 131800UTC 23.3N 141.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 141800UTC 27.3N 137.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 151800UTC 33.5N 140.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Could I ask where you got that from, supercane? I'd guess its from the JMA, but I cant find it.


http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... .rjtd..txt

If there's more than one active cyclone, replace the '20' in wtpq20.rjtd with '21', '22' and so on.
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#24 Postby RL3AO » Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:43 pm

That is some impressive convection.

Image
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#25 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu Sep 12, 2013 8:54 pm

Expecting a big flabby lumbering brute of a cyclone out of this. I admit I was wrong in thinking this would be a major typhoon, the sharp recurve scenario now forecast should prevent any major development (strong typhoon.) JMA forecast peak of 55kts which could well cause problems for Tokyo if it passes close by.
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Re:

#26 Postby phwxenthusiast » Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:00 pm

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Expecting a big flabby lumbering brute of a cyclone out of this. I admit I was wrong in thinking this would be a major typhoon, the sharp recurve scenario now forecast should prevent any major development (strong typhoon.) JMA forecast peak of 55kts which could well cause problems for Tokyo if it passes close by.


i feel like it's gonna struggle in the short term anyway, even if it doesn't gain latitude... looking at the vis (looping is better), i can kinda make out at least three different low-level centers... very monsoon-depression like, and as we've seen in the past, these can be slow to consolidate...

Image

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Re: Re:

#27 Postby Meow » Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:30 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:i feel like it's gonna struggle in the short term anyway, even if it doesn't gain latitude... looking at the vis (looping is better), i can kinda make out at least three different low-level centers... very monsoon-depression like, and as we've seen in the past, these can be slow to consolidate...

Image

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JTWC said it is a monsoon depression. This kind of storms can cause more damage.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:22 pm

Well my thought on JMA following their model was way wrong, glad to see they used meteorolgoical reasoning trumping just following the model.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:27 pm

Image

287
WTPQ31 PGUM 130348 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAN-YI (16W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP162013
200 PM CHST FRI SEP 13 2013

CORRECTED TYPO IN DISCUSSION

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAN-YI (16W) SLOWLY INTENSIFYING NORTH OF THE
MARIANAS...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.0N 142.1E

ABOUT 320 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 530 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 615 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAN-YI
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.1
EAST.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAN-YI IS MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. MAN-YI IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE SAME FORWARD SPEED WHILE GRADUALLY CURVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE NORTH BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION MAN-YI IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TONIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

WILLIAMS


WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (MAN-YI)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
MULTIPLE VORTICES IN AN OVERALL ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED SYSTEM
WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERIES. A 130005Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS
NOT INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS MULTIPLE
CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO PERSIST WHILE THE CONVECTION IN THE
PERIPHERIES HAS DEEPENED. LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO THE MULTIPLE VORTICES AND THE OVERALL BROAD AND
ELONGATED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS
FROM RJTD AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE POINT-
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO PERSIST TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW TO THE EASTERN
PERIPHERIES WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS
STARTED TO OPEN DISTANCE FROM TD 16W ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 20
KNOTS). TD 16W IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST THROUGH THE NEXT
DAY AS IT CONTINUES TO FURTHER CONSOLIDATE. AFTER WHICH, THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DIG IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO STEER TD 16W
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48. TD 16W WILL THEN RECURVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS IT CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES
FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD. TD 16W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A MINIMAL
TYPHOON (65 KNOTS) BY TAU 72 WHILE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SLIGHTLY RELAXES AND TD 16W GAINS A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96 AS A
STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVE SCENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
JAPANESE ENSEMBLE AND HWRF. THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO TAKE
A TRACK FURTHER WEST AND AT A SLOWER SPEED, SHOWING A MUCH WEAKER
REACTION TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HWRF HAS BECOME ERRATIC AS IT
RAPIDLY ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST INITIALLY AND THEN
RAPIDLY BACK TO NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY INSIDE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THESE
MODELS. DUE TO POOR INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE AND SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENT AND SPEED OF THE RECURVE SCENARIO, LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#30 Postby euro6208 » Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:37 pm

PGTW- 2.0
KNES- 2.0


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.3 /1000.3mb/ 33.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.2 2.2
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:41 am

A video update I put together this morning on this.


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6aMweu1hZg[/youtube]

Plus a brief synoptic setup, why its turning north.. most of us know this but for the non Met person.

Image
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:00 am

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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:34 pm

severe tropical storm MAN-YI...accdg to JMA
all I can say about Man-yi is that she's really large...

STS 1318 (MAN-YI)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 14 September 2013

<Analyses at 14/00 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N24°05'(24.1°)
E137°10'(137.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE650km(350NM)
SW370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 14/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°25'(26.4°)
E135°10'(135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°50'(28.8°)
E134°10'(134.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°20'(34.3°)
E137°50'(137.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 17/00 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N45°00'(45.0°)
E151°05'(151.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 600km(325NM)
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:37 pm

The center is quite dry but the over-all appearance of this large system (feeder bands to its north and east) looks...impressive IMO, given that it's still a TS. I

EDIT: JMA already upgraded Man-yi to a Severe Tropical Storm by the way. I think its shot to be the next official typhoon isn't too shabby.
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:52 pm

Image

another multiple vortex TC...I can't locate the centroid though...hahaha
reminds me of the vortices of tropical storm Leepi earlier this year
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:29 pm

very impressive outer band extending all the way south to guam!

still forecast to intensify into a typhoon :D


WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE DOMINANT CIRCULATION
WITH GROWING CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 132259Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS THE POSITION OF THE LLCC WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE OUTER MOST SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ALONG THE
EASTERN BOUNDARY AND INTO THE INNER WESTERN BOUNDARY. THE CURRENT
POSITION OF THE SYSTEM IS BASED ON THE MSI AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 40 KTS BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AS WELL AS
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION, ALLOWING FOR LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING A REGION OF TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TS 16W, CREATING A REGION
OF UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THIS REGION OF SUBSIDENCE IS HAMPERING
THE DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION FROM FULLY ENCOMPASSING THE LLCC, BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 16W IS TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER THE STEADY INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ASIA WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. THE TROUGH WILL MODIFY THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, ALLOWING TS 16W TO TURN NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN JAPAN. POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS TS 16W
LINKS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE JET AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM WILL REACH TYPHOON
STRENGTH BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WITH MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING THE TURN BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND THE STR, WILL LEAD TO THE
ACCELERATION OF TS 16W TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THE INFLUENCE
OF THE DRY COOLER AIR AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS NEAR TAU 48 WITH
COMPLETE TRANSITION BY TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY INSIDE AND FASTER THAN CONW AT THE
LATER TAUS. THE INITIAL BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM MADE TRACKING THE
LLCC DIFFICULT RESULTING IN GENERALLY POOR CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL
POSITIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. SINCE THE LLCC HAS
CONSOLIDATED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED, THE INITAL POSITIONS HAVE
IMPROVED AND UNCERTAINTY REDUCED, LENDING IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE
EARLY TO MID PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TRACK. BASED ON THE GROUPING
OF MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RECURVATURE SCENARIO
IN THE LATER TAUS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:38 pm

diminishing convection as dry air is slowly being entrained into the system core...rapid intensification unlikely...

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 / 994.3mb/ 39.0kt
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 2:45 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 591 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEFINED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER (NEAR 30N LATITUDE) WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY AND A 141159Z TRMM 37H
IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A 141016Z
SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LARGE SYSTEM, APPROXIMATELY 600
NM DIAMETER, WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 141143Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 140308Z
OCEANSAT IMAGE INDICATE EXPANSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS, EASILY
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL 34-KNOT WIND RADII ESTIMATES OF 120 TO 135
NM, WITH NUMEROUS 40-KNOT WIND VECTORS OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT AND
OCEANSAT DATA AS WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN WITH A HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE CENTER NEAR 25N
145E, WHICH IS PRODUCING WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND POLEWARD VENTING
INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE
TO A NARROW BAND OF CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. TS 16W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 12, TS 16W WILL
TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
EASTERN CHINA. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
NEAR TAU 24 AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE KANTO PLAIN WITH A
FRONTAL SIGNATURE SHOWN IN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELDS. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK SCENARIO AND THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE, EXCEPT GFDN
AND NAVGEM, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, MOST NOTABLY THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES. GFDN AND NAVGEM HAVE REMAINED HIGHLY ERRATIC AND ARE
DISCOUNTED, THEREFORE, THE JTWC TRACK IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THESE TWO OUTLIERS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHALLENGING DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM AND LACK OF CORE CONVECTION. THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS SET
AT 60 KNOTS AT TAU 24 WITH A WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED AS TS 16W
APPROACHES JAPAN AND THE KANTO PLAIN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN 50 TO 55 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE KANTO PLAIN AND SHOULD ALSO
MAINTAIN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE STIPS
GUIDANCE, WHICH PEAKS NEAR 54 KNOTS AT TAU 24.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:33 am

Image

heavy winds and rains impacting japan...landfall in a few hours...
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Re: WPAC: MAN-YI - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:36 am

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 31.6N 135.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.6N 135.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 35.0N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 39.5N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 32.4N 135.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z,
160300Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (MAN-YI) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (MAN-YI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE CENTER OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 151006Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A
WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH, ALONG WITH RJTD RADAR FIXES,
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 151125Z
PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM (APPROXIMATELY 600 NM DIAMETER). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD VENTING AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS DIGGING INTO KOREA AND WESTERN JAPAN.
CONSEQUENTLY, CORE CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY AND THE SYSTEM
HAS INTENSIFIED. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO
30 TO 35 KNOTS, TS 16W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHERLY SHEAR VECTOR, WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY REDUCING THE IMPACT OF
THE STRONG VWS AND ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TS 16W IS
ACCELERATING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL JAPAN AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AS DEPICTED IN MODEL FIELDS, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE KANTO PLAIN WITH A
CLEAR FRONTAL SIGNATURE SHOWN IN THE 1000-500MB THICKNESS FIELDS.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK SCENARIO AND THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF DYNAMIC GUIDANCE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH HAS REMAINED HIGHLY ERRATIC AND IS THE
SOLE OUTLIER. AT 16/03Z (CPA TO TOKYO), THERE IS ONLY A 65 NM SPREAD
IN SOLUTIONS. THE PEAK INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 60 KNOTS; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS,
PRIOR TO LANDFALL, DUE TO FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
50 TO 55 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE KANTO PLAIN
AND SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS AS IT TRACKS
BACK OVER WATER.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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