EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

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TropicalAnalystwx13
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#41 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:44 pm

0z ATCF update

EP, 13, 2013091500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 1025W, 55, 988, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 30, 0, 0, 1002, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MANUEL, D,
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 7:58 pm

TAFB:T4.0

EP, 13, 201309142345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1670N, 10260W, , 2, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, SS, VI, 3, 4040 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, little motion past 6 hours as center remains embedde
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#43 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 8:08 pm

Based on that update, 65 kt might be most reasonable, since SAB also makes a 4.0 mention.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED AS MANUEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 102.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...
AND MANUEL COULD BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...ALMOST
5 INCHES...122 MM...OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN HUATULCO MEXICO.

WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY SUNDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL
HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. AN ELONGATED CDO FEATURE HAS FORMED AND CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER
EYE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND A 14/2215Z
CIRA AMSU OVERPASS...AND T3.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE
DATA AND THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN
STRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT...BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES.
MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...BUT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT
MANUEL HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY NORTHWARD COURSE FOR THE PAST 5
HOURS. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. WESTWARD OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO...FORCING MANUEL TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT OTHERWISE
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING
A HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...VERY WARM
WATER...MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE PRESENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED EYE. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ONCE THE CYCLONE
MOVES INLAND...HOWEVER...RAPID WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD SHOULD
OCCUR OWING TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE SO DISRUPTED THAT
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON SHIP REPORTS IN THOSE QUADRANTS.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 17.2N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 19.4N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/1200Z 20.6N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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#45 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:49 pm

They do mention it is possibly conservative. Perhaps now was the time to upgrade to Hurricane Manuel?
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#46 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Sep 14, 2013 9:54 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Indeed, looks to be about 60 kt there. Might want to send a Recon plane out that way too...

The Ingrid-Manuel marriage looks to be a nasty one for Mexico!


Reminds me of Larry and Olaf 03.
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#47 Postby Zanthe » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:37 pm

Really cold cloud tops now. Jeez.
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Re:

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:47 pm

Zanthe wrote:Really cold cloud tops now. Jeez.


Indeed.

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#49 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:56 pm

Impressive blow up

saved loop
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#50 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:08 pm

Undoubtedly at least 65 knots right now. Probably stronger.

Wish we had recon. Not sure why the NHC didn't schedule any flights for the system.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#51 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:13 pm

Deep convection and an open eyewall to the W just like Ingrid....

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#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:30 pm

They look like twins! I would say their intensities are similar too - probably now up to about 70-75 kt for Manuel.
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#53 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:00 am

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Undoubtedly at least 65 knots right now. Probably stronger.

Wish we had recon. Not sure why the NHC didn't schedule any flights for the system.


IMO because it was not suppose to become a hurricane prior to landfall like it is now.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#54 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:48 am

Still no hurricane yet

...MANUEL DOUSING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14
Location: 17.5°N 102.5°W
Moving: NNW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#55 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:50 am

How is Manuel not a hurricane, it looks more impressive than Ingrid right now.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#56 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 15, 2013 1:22 am

hurricaneCW wrote:How is Manuel not a hurricane, it looks more impressive than Ingrid right now.


Ingrid has recon, but I'd agree with a cane for Manuel.
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#57 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 3:49 am

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...CENTER OF MANUAL APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 102.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150841
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. IN FACT...THE MOST
RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE MAY NOT BE QUITE
AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS LAST EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM
SAB...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE EAST LAST EVENING...MANUEL HAS TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7 KT...TOWARD A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MANUEL IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOON...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFTER LANDFALL...
KEEPING THE CENTER OF MANUEL OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY
OR TWO.

SINCE THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IS QUICKLY DWINDLING. NONETHELESS...THE HURRICANE
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE CENTER
HAS REACHED LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS...BUT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD CONTINUE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL
BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.

ASCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
WIND FIELD OF MANUEL HAS DETACHED FROM THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL
STORM AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO ISOLATE THE
STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION AND WAVE FIELD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 17.9N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/0600Z 19.9N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/1800Z 20.6N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:48 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...CENTER OF MANUEL VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 103.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...14 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THAT MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVE INLAND BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA...GUERRERO...AND
MICHOACAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
LESSER BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND JALISCO. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER OF MANUEL REACHES
THE COAST.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#59 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:53 am

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
DENSE OVERCAST SURROUNDS THE CENTER...WITH A LONG CURVED BAND
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS
SHOWED A LESS ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
AND A LITTLE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC WAS 4.0...WITH THE
LATEST ADT VALUE OF 3.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60
KT...GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURES AND RECENT
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE INNER CORE.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF MANUEL IS A BIT TO THE
LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/08...WHICH HAS DELAYED LANDFALL. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SOMETIME LATER TODAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.

WITH THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD FOLLOW WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS
DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD DELAY THE TIME OF
LANDFALL FURTHER AND COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS
A CONSEQUENCE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 18.5N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#60 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 15, 2013 10:14 am

Any chance this could make it into the GOC in a few days and Calvin?
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