EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

[supercane4867]

Since 2010 there've been 30 tropical cyclones directly impacted Mexico, 13E is now the 31th

What a rough ride for them

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 101.8W
ABOUT 145 MI...225 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS RELOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE VERY
NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...AND COULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS
ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[galaxy401]

So if there happens to be deaths in Mexico unfortunately then which storm gets blamed for it?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track. It looks like TS Manuel coming at 2 PM PDT.

EP, 13, 2013091318, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1018W, 35, 999, TS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BALL OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE ABOUT 35 KT...AND THIS IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
WHILE THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS SMALL...THE
CIRCULATION OF MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC
GYRE THAT CONTAINS LOTS OF STRONG WINDS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS STRUCTURE MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST
TRICKY SINCE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
FROM ASCAT...MANUEL SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND
THE NHC PREDICTION IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT THE UPPER END
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

INSTEAD OF A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING...IT SEEMS
LIKE MANUEL IS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/5. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THE STORM SHOULD TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN
RELATIVELY SOON DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS GROWN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE
NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISING
IF FURTHER WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.0N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 102.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[hurricanes1234]

I would give this a 25% chance of becoming a hurricane, because the official NHC forecast calls for some fairly quick deepening right up until landfall. The forecasted peak of 60 mph, even if it doesn't go above that, is just 14 mph away from hurricane strength, so we definitely can't rule out a hurricane. I also find it very unique that this has winds of 40 mph, yet a pressure of 998 mbar, more consistent with a 60 mph storm. When it reaches 60 mph, we may see it with a pressure of 990 mbar or less!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

...MANUEL GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 102.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TONIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL
SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA BY LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA BY MID-DAY SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE
IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND RECENT
PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A SMALL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
EYELIKE FEATURE. FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH ADT ESTIMATES
ARE AROUND 35 KT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KT BASED ON THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYELIKE FEATURE. THE 34-KT WIND
RADII WERE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BASED ON WIND
REPORTS FROM SHIP DFZB2.

IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.
MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH INCLUDES TROPICAL STORM
INGRID LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE ENTIRE GYRE COMPLEX TO SHIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN MANUEL GRADUALLY ASSUMING A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL
IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MANUEL HAS A
SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT TRMM
AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING AN EYELIKE FEATURE. SINCE
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 18-24
HOURS...MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODEL ICON. HOWEVER...IF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.3N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 102.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.1N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 19.1N 103.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS
ORGANIZING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST AND A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER. ALTHOUGH MANUEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT WAS
EARLIER...ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...
SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.

MANUEL HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODELS...THE OVERALL
THEME IS THAT MANUEL...AND THE LARGE-SCALE GYRE THAT IT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN...WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THAT
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE STORM MAKES
LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.

STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD
BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 141150
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...MANUEL NOW MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 102.4W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL IS
NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL MANUEL MAKES
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH...66 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED BY A MEXICAN NAVY STATION IN PUERTO VICENTE GUERRERO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

MANUEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION ON THE
UPSWING. A CURVED BAND IS NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER...WITH AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING. WHILE
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE DUSSELDORF EXPRESS
REPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 997 MB WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF MANUEL OF 994 MB OR SO.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT...A BIT ABOVE THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND NEAR THE KNAFF-ZEHR-COURTNEY WIND-PRESSURE
RELATIONSHIP. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MANUEL COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE 50 KT SHOWN BELOW BEFORE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE STORM IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 355/5. MANUEL SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY OVER MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST PATH...AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.3N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1200Z 20.5N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...MANUEL MOVING CLOSER TO MEXICO BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 102.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.4 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHWEST
MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE UNTIL LANDFALL ON
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A MEXICAN NAVY STATION AT PUERTO VICENTE GUERRERO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 41 MPH...66 KH/M.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[zeehag]

come on guys---keep this thing away from me----i like watching them, but having possibly 2 meet overhead, kinda is a lil wak.....
i have an analog barometer that i use for trending--it has gone down a lot--twice as far as normal, reads 29.61---we gonna be wet n i hope not wild---allshows dissipation before my coordinates, but......
here are my coordinates----
Latitude:19.19524
Longitude:-104.68211
force field being installed as we speak.
the farther away from me that these dissipate, the better i like em...


yeah i am a glutton for punishment--is why i like it here so much....

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Manuel

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF MANUEL HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER.
DVORAK...ADT...AND AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ALL SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOME STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL GIVEN THE WARM WATER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION. MANUEL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO...AND IT COULD EVEN DISSIPATE BY 36H.

THE STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING LEFTWARD...NOW 345/6. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...CAUSING MANUEL
TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT AND ACCELERATE. THERE HAS BEEN
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL MIGHT MAKE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AGAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

THE WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED GREATLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT/SHIP DATA...
ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS/SEAS ARE PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-
SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.8N 102.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 17.7N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 19.1N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/0600Z 20.3N 104.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...MANUEL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE POSSIBLE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 102.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...90 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MANUEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...MANUEL
SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...90 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE
UNTIL LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390
KM...MOSTLY NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...A SHIP LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
MANUEL REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 50 MPH...85 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA SOON.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[supercane4867]

Manuel is currently undergoing some serious intensification, very possible it will become a hurricane in the next advisory

[CrazyC83]

Indeed, looks to be about 60 kt there. Might want to send a Recon plane out that way too...

The Ingrid-Manuel marriage looks to be a nasty one for Mexico!

[CrazyC83]

TXPZ29 KNES 150009
TCSENP

A. 13E (MANUEL)

B. 14/2345Z

C. 16.9N

D. 102.3W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/AMSU

H. REMARKS...RECENT SSMI AND AMSU DATA SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL. A CDO WITH WELL DEFINED EDGES MEASURES 1.75 DEGREES
FOR A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT ARE 3.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

[CrazyC83]

14/2345 UTC 16.9N 102.3W T3.5/3.5 MANUEL -- East Pacific