EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#101 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:12 am

Look at that

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#102 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:55 am

Back to TS strength

EP, 13, 2013091812, , BEST, 0, 232N, 1078W, 35, 1000, TS
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:44 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 107.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA OF CORTEZ
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...
55 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. MANUEL IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY
LATE THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT A BAND OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOSELY WRAPS AROUND MUCH OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER 72
HOURS...LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANUEL TO WEAKEN AND THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

THE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER
FORECASTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD BECOMES
QUITE LARGE...WITH THE HWRF LYING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE...SHOWING
LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY
OR SO. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS MANUEL BECOMING
STATIONARY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE TURNING WEST AND MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT
LEAST PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED DEPTH OF MANUEL...SINCE A
DEEPER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING
THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR
NOW...THE NHC FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A BEND TO THE WEST AS THE
SYSTEM WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FOREAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.4N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#104 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:50 am

Image

looks pretty nice on radar
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:59 am

Organizing nicely

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:07 am

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.4N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Extremely conservative forecast

I see no reason for it not to become at least a strong TS
windshear is nonexist right now
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:25 am

supercane4867 wrote:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.4N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Extremely conservative forecast

I see no reason for it not to become at least a strong TS
windshear is nonexist right now


I think the initial intensity is also very conservative and this is closer to 50 to 55 kts looking at radar and microwave satellite pics

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:04 pm

...MANUEL QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18
Location: 23.6°N 107.9°W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:04 pm

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MANUEL
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO RAISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST
INTENSITY. BASED ON SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND
SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR
AND WARM WATERS...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
INNER CORE INTERACTS WITH LAND. SINCE THE UPDATED INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MANUEL TO APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN
IT NEARS THE COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO.

MANUEL CONTINUES MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER
FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS MANUEL MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS
THAT NOW TAKES MANUEL INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED IF SOME
OF THE OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1800Z 23.6N 107.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:06 pm

RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MANUEL
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING

wow

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:11 pm

Finally they realized it's not just a weak tropical storm, there's plenty of data that suggested Manuel was much stronger and I still think 50 knots is conservative based on microwave data.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#112 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:24 pm

Can anyone tell me what is the farthest north into the GOC that a tropical system has traveled?
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#113 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:30 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Can anyone tell me what is the farthest north into the GOC that a tropical system has traveled?

Hurricane Katrina of 1967 traveled all the way up to colorado river

Image

This is a really cool track and I wish to see one do that again :lol:
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#114 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:32 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Can anyone tell me what is the farthest north into the GOC that a tropical system has traveled?

Hurricane Katrina of 1967 traveled all the way up to colorado river

Image

This is a really cool track and I wish to see one do that again :lol:


I bet they got some pretty substantial rains in the SW with that system
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#115 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:52 pm

Another zombie storm. What in the world? LOL
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Re:

#116 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:58 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Another zombie storm. What in the world? LOL

zombie storm lol

Image

Even Katrina was zombie storm :wink:
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#117 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:14 pm

Manuel looks good on visible Floater.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#118 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:54 pm

Yes, it looks very good right now, it even has an "eye". Probably very near or at hurricane strength.

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#119 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:49 pm

New advisory peaks at 75kts. Hurricane Warning issued.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL QUICKLY STRENGTHENS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 107.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL WILL APPROACH THE WEST-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE
THURSDAY.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL COULD
BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. MANUEL IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. A
RAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE
PICTURES. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. GIVEN THE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER...
MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING. SINCE THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.

THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
GFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER
TO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS
WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE
COAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OFFSHORE. MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER
EASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY.

BECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COAST. RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD
PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#120 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:55 pm

I wouldn't be too surprised if this is stronger than expected at landfall. Am I correct about saying that Manuel intensified by 30 mph in 6 hours? From the lower threshold of TS strength, to the upper threshold just 6 hours later. And with an eye as well. :eek:

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