EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

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Extratropical94
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#121 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:57 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL QUICKLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 108.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL WILL APPROACH THE WEST-
CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHEN IS FORECAST AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...
AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. MANUEL IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR
THE CENTER IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#122 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:02 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I wouldn't be too surprised if this is stronger than expected at landfall. Am I correct about saying that Manuel intensified by 30 mph in 6 hours? From the lower threshold of TS strength, to the upper threshold just 6 hours later. And with an eye as well. :eek:

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You're correct. The preliminary data in the advisories has Manuel at 35kts / 40 mph at 8am PDT and currently (2 pm PDT) at 60 kts / 70 mph, so it's a 25 knot / 30 mph increase in 6 hours.
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#123 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:08 pm

Manuel is pulling a Kiko 89 IMO. I have a feeling this will become a major before it's all sudden done. Call me crazy if you want :P

Regarding Katrina 67, that's was a very very bad storm for San Feliple. It also did some rain to the US not as much as Octave 83/Norma 70/Nora 97 though.
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Re:

#124 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:57 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Manuel is pulling a Kiko 89 IMO. I have a feeling this will become a major before it's all sudden done. Call me crazy if you want :P

Regarding Katrina 67, that's was a very very bad storm for San Feliple. It also did some rain to the US not as much as Octave 83/Norma 70/Nora 97 though.


For this to happen, Manuel must increase its wind speed by more than 40 mph in 24-36 hours. But then again, if it increased by 30 mph in only 6 hours, then far less for 24-36! Does anyone else support possibly major hurricane status? :lol:

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Re: Re:

#125 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:16 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Manuel is pulling a Kiko 89 IMO. I have a feeling this will become a major before it's all sudden done. Call me crazy if you want :P

Regarding Katrina 67, that's was a very very bad storm for San Feliple. It also did some rain to the US not as much as Octave 83/Norma 70/Nora 97 though.


For this to happen, Manuel must increase its wind speed by more than 40 mph in 24-36 hours. But then again, if it increased by 30 mph in only 6 hours, then far less for 24-36! Does anyone else support possibly major hurricane status? :lol:

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I don't think it's gonna happen, it's just a feeling. When I was referring to Kiko 89, I meant how it's intensifying over the GOC.
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Re: Re:

#126 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:23 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Manuel is pulling a Kiko 89 IMO. I have a feeling this will become a major before it's all sudden done. Call me crazy if you want :P

Regarding Katrina 67, that's was a very very bad storm for San Feliple. It also did some rain to the US not as much as Octave 83/Norma 70/Nora 97 though.


For this to happen, Manuel must increase its wind speed by more than 40 mph in 24-36 hours. But then again, if it increased by 30 mph in only 6 hours, then far less for 24-36! Does anyone else support possibly major hurricane status? :lol:

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I don't think it's gonna happen, it's just a feeling. When I was referring to Kiko 89, I meant how it's intensifying over the GOC.


What do you think Manuel will peak as? I would say between 85 and 100 mph.

EDIT: I posted Kiko instead of Manuel. :P

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EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#127 Postby galaxy401 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:32 pm

Becomes a hurricane after all.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL ALREADY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 108.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM...SW OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...115 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#128 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:34 pm

Center very near the coast and continue moving due north
Next advisory maybe the final chance for Manuel to become a hurricane

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#129 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:35 pm

galaxy401 wrote:...MANUEL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...NORTHERN EYEWALL ALREADY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...

Here ya go! :lol:
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#130 Postby Ntxw » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:35 pm

Looks like a cane, very close to shore.

Image

Edit: Saw the posts above, is a cane!
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#131 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:45 pm

That's gotta be tearing things up pretty good. What's the population along there? Terrain?
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#132 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:00 pm

This must have catch people there off guard at big time, since it was only a "weak TS" in the morning and forecated to head west

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#133 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:17 pm

Looks stronger than 65 kt IMO.
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Re:

#134 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:19 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks stronger than 65 kt IMO.


Agreed, it has an eye.

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#135 Postby psyclone » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:19 pm

boy that was quick. too bad we can't get some rapid development like that in the atlantic basin.
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#136 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:37 pm

The intensity for Manuel has been severely underestimated for the past day. It had a clear eye on microwave last night. It was visible on conventional satellite all of this morning.

This is why I wish NHC scheduled recon flights into East Pacific storms like they do Atlantic storms...especially since this one is making landfall.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#137 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:54 pm

SSD needs to make up its mind...

TXPZ29 KNES 190030
TCSENP
A. 13E (MANUEL)
B. 19/0000Z
C. 24.3N
D. 107.9W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/TMI/AMSU
H. REMARKS...CONFLICTING INFORMATION ON INTENSITY DEPENDING UPON THE
PATTERN USED TO DETERMINE THE DT. PBO RAGGED EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY
WHICH SUGGESTS THE EYEWALL IS OPEN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHERN HALF MEASURES 6/10 ON A TIGHT LOG10 SPIRAL USING VIS IMAGERY
FOR A DT OF 3.0. APPLYING EYE PATTERN TO EIR IMAGERY HOWEVER YIELDS
A DT OF 4.5 BASED ON AN OW EYE EMBEDDED IN MG AND SURROUNDED BY MG.
IN THE FACE OF SUCH CONFLICTING INFORMATION THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT
OF 3.0 WHICH IS CONSTRAINED. MET OF 2.5 IS BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
18/1844Z 23.9N 108.0W TMI
18/2050Z 24.1N 108.1W AMSU

...TURK
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Re:

#138 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:05 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The intensity for Manuel has been severely underestimated for the past day. It had a clear eye on microwave last night. It was visible on conventional satellite all of this morning.

This is why I wish NHC scheduled recon flights into East Pacific storms like they do Atlantic storms...especially since this one is making landfall.


They do, just not as often.
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Re:

#139 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:13 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The intensity for Manuel has been severely underestimated for the past day. It had a clear eye on microwave last night. It was visible on conventional satellite all of this morning.

This is why I wish NHC scheduled recon flights into East Pacific storms like they do Atlantic storms...especially since this one is making landfall.

They definitely should. It's not like it's situated in the middle of the Pacific. It's very close to home...
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#140 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:57 pm

...MANUEL HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18
Location: 24.6°N 108.0°W
Moving: N at 3 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/190253.shtml
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