EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

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Macrocane
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#141 Postby Macrocane » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:36 pm

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#142 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:28 pm

Intense convection blow up due to topographic interaction

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#143 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Sep 18, 2013 11:42 pm

Maybe 70 knts at 6z then?
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#144 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:53 am

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MANUEL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SERIES OF MICROWAVE
PASSES AND RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER
HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS
BEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED
SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED
A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE
CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE OFFSHORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 65 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/03. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE STEERING...
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD. THE NHC
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND SHOW THE CENTER OF MANUEL
MOVING SLOWLY INLAND NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS GENERAL IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND HWRF
MODELS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF
MANUEL COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND
LINGER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AS
SHOWN BY THE UKMET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW
IN THE TRACK FORECAST.

AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER LAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. WITH THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWING THE
CYCLONE REMAINING INLAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
STEADY WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. IF THE
CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE CIRCULATION COULD PERSIST
LONGER AND WEAKEN SLOWER THAN SHOWN HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 24.8N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 25.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 20/0600Z 25.5N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 20/1800Z 25.6N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/0600Z 25.7N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#145 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:59 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

...MANUEL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 108.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
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#146 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Sep 19, 2013 7:20 am

Not too long ago, they had the 5-Day track taking it west out over the Baja. Now they have it doing basically the opposite.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#147 Postby lukem » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:18 am

What impact might this new track have on Texas? I know we are getting quite a bit of moisture from Manuel right now, but could we potentially have the remnants of the storm over us late this weekend as well?
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#148 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:37 pm

Manuel down to Tropical Storm.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

...MANUEL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 107.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF ALTATA MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Hurricane

#149 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 19, 2013 12:37 pm

lukem wrote:What impact might this new track have on Texas? I know we are getting quite a bit of moisture from Manuel right now, but could we potentially have the remnants of the storm over us late this weekend as well?


Most if not all of the remaining moisture/remnant of Manuel is going to get absorbed by the front and come through Texas. It's the main reason why we're going to see a slow soaker vs quick hitting squall line from the front.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#150 Postby lukem » Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:35 pm

Thanks Ntxw. I’m a long time lurker of the site and have always appreciated your opinion of the weather, especially as it relates to Texas.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#151 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:39 pm

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF MANUEL HAS
DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO
40 KT. MANUEL WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST-CENTRAL
MEXICO SHORTLY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN....
AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE CYCLONE
IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MANUEL DISSIPATES.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 25.7N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 26.3N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#152 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:47 pm

Down to TD.


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

...MANUEL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TONIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
WESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 106.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST.
MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
STATES OF DURANGO AND CHIHUAHUA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#153 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:36 pm

REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
MANUEL HAS LOST ORGANIZATION AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.

HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
FARTHER INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
MANUEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 26.2N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS
12H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#154 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:01 pm

Manuel R.I.P

And now we can enjoy a week of no activity :lol:
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#155 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:44 pm

May or may not be the last storm of the season IMO. But, see ya Manuel, maybe you'll get retired.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#156 Postby Macrocane » Fri Sep 20, 2013 3:01 pm

DEATH TOLL KEEPS RISING IN MEXICO

The number of people killed by Manuel (most of them) and Ingrid has risen to at least 100 in Mexico, 68 are still missing after a landslide in the town of Atoyac and more than 200 000 have been left homeless. A record rain of 987 mm (38.86 inches) has accumulated in the last week in Guerrero state.

Some of the sources:

Cifras de la tragedia (in Spanish)

CNN Mexico (Translated)

155 municipalities in Mexico under state of emergency (Translated)

Manuel should be retired IMO.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#157 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Sep 20, 2013 10:03 pm

Macrocane wrote:Manuel should be retired IMO.


I think it has a good shot. Acapulco was hit pretty hard. Manuel reminds me of Hurricane Pauline in 1997.
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#158 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:49 pm

How many TC's have died and regenerated in the E. Pacific over the years? I know it has been very common in the Atlantic recently. :lol:
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