EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

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#61 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:01 am

Looking at Satellite loops, Looks like Manuel don't what to leave mexico alone. He's moving parallel to the coast.
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#62 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:33 am

Looks like landfall
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 1:02 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...MANUEL NEAR THE COAST CLOSE TO MANZANILLO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 104.3W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF ZIHUANTANEJO EASTWARD TO ACAPULCO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHANTANEJO TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST SOON AND
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
COMPLETELY ONSHORE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO
AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#64 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 15, 2013 1:31 pm

Not forecast to become a Hurricane any more.

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 151450
TCDEP3

TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. A MOSTLY CIRCULAR
DENSE OVERCAST SURROUNDS THE CENTER...WITH A LONG CURVED BAND
EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS
SHOWED A LESS ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...
AND A LITTLE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC WAS 4.0...WITH THE
LATEST ADT VALUE OF 3.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60
KT...GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURES AND RECENT
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE INNER CORE.

SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF MANUEL IS A BIT TO THE
LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATED TO
BE 320/08...WHICH HAS DELAYED LANDFALL. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SOMETIME LATER TODAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
NORTHWESTERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.

WITH THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD FOLLOW WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS
DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD DELAY THE TIME OF
LANDFALL FURTHER AND COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS
A CONSEQUENCE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 18.5N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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#65 Postby zeehag » Sun Sep 15, 2013 1:59 pm

if manuel remains on this course, we are in line for center as we are 20 miles north of manzanillo on the coast and protected by isla navidad and barra de navidad which will sustain more damage to the malecon.
i am bow into the approx wind direction and spiderwebbed into my slip.
thirteen used to be my lucky number---we see if that is still the case.
as this storm system is passing so shallowly inland, would it still weaken or would it be able to enjoy growth and regenerate into something that could well be a problem elsewhere northwestish from here??


i did like it better when i went to bed last night. now it is a little .. here. :eek:

my coordinates:
19.19524 latitude, -104.68211 longitude
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#66 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 15, 2013 2:12 pm

It was probably a hurricane last night but no more, I agree.
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#67 Postby Time_Zone » Sun Sep 15, 2013 2:27 pm

Looks to be taking a beating now.

I think it made landfall as a hurricane.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 3:45 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...MANUEL WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO...
...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 104.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHANTANEJO TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.4 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM N OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO
AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF MANUEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY



TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

AMBIGUITIES FROM A 1618 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF
MANUEL MADE LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PASS
ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CYCLONE ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS CONSERVATIVELY BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...SINCE
STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL WILL DISSIPATE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION
REMAINS INTACT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME
MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING
DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS
SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL
DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 20.3N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/1800Z 21.4N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 6:49 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...MANUEL INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 104.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. MANUEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES...
IS BASED ON MEXICAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO
AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
SHOULD BE SUBSIDING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO.
THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby Macrocane » Sun Sep 15, 2013 8:32 pm

Manuel will probably be upgraded in post season.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#71 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 15, 2013 9:59 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013

MANUEL HAS BEEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MORE THAN 6
HOURS...AND THE LAND INTERACTION IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM.
THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS DECOUPLED...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE
MINIMUM LOCATED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...MANUEL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL IS LOSING STRENGTH...IT CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD REDEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE
SYSTEM NEARS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

THE MAIN HAZARD IS TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...
WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 19.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#72 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 5:08 am

REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO
LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.
THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS
AREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION.

EVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR
SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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#73 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 16, 2013 7:30 am

If it came back in the GOC, i'd be the first regeneration in the EPAC since 2006.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 12:17 pm

Macrocane wrote:Manuel will probably be upgraded in post season.


I agree, given the microwave data compared alongside Ingrid (which had Recon supporting 70-80 kt at the same time).
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#75 Postby zeehag » Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:50 pm

it was lovely to be able to watch as he became a dud to us---pleasant without much wind here---lots of rain--i have literally bucketsful, but that is good.... :sun:
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#76 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Sep 16, 2013 4:34 pm

A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL...IS
CENTERED NEAR LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED
AND DISORGANIZED...AND ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR
AS THE REMNANTS MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
COOLER WATERS WHERE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. THE SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#77 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 5:21 pm

I doubt this will redevelop. Why? Because of that extremely dry air to the west of it.

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#78 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:54 am

Image
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL...
IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE TROUGH...THERE
ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

00Z CMC has it regenerate into a TD before make landfall on Baja
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#79 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:05 am

ABPZ20 KNHC 171130
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MANUEL...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. THERE
ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...
HOWEVER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH...AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#80 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 12:32 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MANUEL...IS LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAS MARIAS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.
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