EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E - Ex Manuel - 60%-60%

#81 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 1:15 pm

Similar track, maybe also the intensity? :lol:

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E - Ex Manuel - 60%-60%

#82 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 17, 2013 2:01 pm

Up to 60/60%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
MANUEL...IS LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAS MARIAS.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E - Ex Manuel - It has been renumbered

#83 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 17, 2013 2:46 pm

Manuel is Back!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep912013_ep132013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309171920
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#84 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 17, 2013 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

...MANUEL REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 107.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SAN EVERISTO SOUTHWARD TO
CABO SAN LUCAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF MANUEL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND BASED ON THESE
DATA ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON MANUEL. THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND A
COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 25 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER
EARLIER TODAY. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE
BAJA PENINSULA AND THE INGESTION OF STABLE AIR FROM WEST OF THE
PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN
WESTWARD AFTER IT WEAKENS. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE
TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.6N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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#85 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:04 pm

I knew this thing would come back.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Remnants

#86 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:04 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I doubt this will redevelop. Why? Because of that extremely dry air to the west of it.

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It's still a bit away from the dry air and in the GOC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E - Ex Manuel - 60%-60%

#87 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:27 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Similar track, maybe also the intensity? :lol:

Image


Definitely a similar track, not too sure about it attaining Category 2 status. :lol: Only Henriette was able to do that so far. :lol: :lol:

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E - Ex Manuel - 60%-60%

#88 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:34 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Definitely a similar track, not too sure about it attaining Category 2 status. :lol: Only Henriette was able to do that so far. :lol: :lol:

That's actually a Category 3 major hurricane, which I'm starving to track one right now
Though is something nearly impossible this year :P

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kiko_(1989)
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E - Ex Manuel - 60%-60%

#89 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:09 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:Definitely a similar track, not too sure about it attaining Category 2 status. :lol: Only Henriette was able to do that so far. :lol: :lol:

That's actually a Category 3 major hurricane, which I'm starving to track one right now
Though is something nearly impossible this year :P

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kiko_(1989)


Actually, Usagi is poised to strengthen in wPac, possibly to major strength. Though it won't be a hurricane, but rather a typhoon.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 91E - Ex Manuel - 60%-60%

#90 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:53 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Similar track, maybe also the intensity? :lol:

Image


Definitely a similar track, not too sure about it attaining Category 2 status. :lol: Only Henriette was able to do that so far. :lol: :lol:

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GOC is really warm, so it can do it IMO. Problem is IMO: land.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#91 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 6:21 pm

Do you think it could make it to hurricane strength?

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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#92 Postby ravyrn » Tue Sep 17, 2013 6:45 pm

I posted this in Ingrid's thread, and since most of the articles discuss both storms, I thought I'd share it in this one too. If that is against the rules, please just delete this one.


Here's some photos and articles I've found relating to Ingrid's (and Manuel's) catastrophic flooding in Mexico.

Image
Image
Image
Image
Image

I pulled all the pics from the following articles. Death toll listed at 47 now cited from the Washing Post, though that seems to be a death toll inclusive of both Manuel and Ingrid.

The Washington Post Article citing 47 dead - 9/17/2013
World News Views article from 9/17 citing 42 dead.
ABC News article from 9/17 citing 41 dead.
Older article from Yahoo News, from 9/15, citing 20 dead.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#93 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 17, 2013 6:50 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

...MANUEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 107.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVERISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THEN APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#94 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 6:55 pm

These floods look TERRIBLE. I can't imagine the horror going through these people right now.

On the other hand, will Manuel bring beneficial rains to the Baja California Peninsula, which I think is going through a drought right now?
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#95 Postby zeehag » Tue Sep 17, 2013 7:44 pm

mazatlan and baja are in drought-- rain is celebrated and needed.
those pix show some impressive land re arrangement--i have yet to go to barra to see if they are ok.
we just had rain stop here about 4 hours ago
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#96 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:54 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Do you think it could make it to hurricane strength?

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Yes.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#97 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:59 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:These floods look TERRIBLE. I can't imagine the horror going through these people right now.

On the other hand, will Manuel bring beneficial rains to the Baja California Peninsula, which I think is going through a drought right now?


Not as bad as Texas's drought AFAIK.
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#98 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 17, 2013 9:57 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013

INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE MODEST EASTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM MAZATLAN BRINGING IN DRY AIR FROM THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING FEATURES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THE INNER-CORE
CONVECTION WEST OF MAZATLAN HAS BEEN DECREASING. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T1.0/25 KT FROM SAB...T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...AND A
UW-CIMSS ADT VALUE OF T2.4/34 KT.

MANUEL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...OR 315/05 KT. A
SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS MANUEL MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BY
48-72 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF OF THE COASTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE STEERING FLOW TO
ALSO WEAKEN. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO
THE COLD WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C SSTS. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE RUGGED TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE
GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER PASSING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA...MORE RAPID
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WITH MANUEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96
HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANUEL COULD PEAK AT A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 23.0N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 23.4N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 23.9N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 24.3N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 24.6N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 22/0000Z 23.9N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#99 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 5:12 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

MANUEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT RAGGED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW A LOT OF CURVATURE...AND DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR
AND WARM SSTS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD RESULT
IN WEAKENING AROUND THAT TIME. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER THE MUCH COOLER PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF
THE PENINSULA...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/04.
MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TONIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER
WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A
RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN BY 36 TO 48
HOURS. AS A RESULT...MANUEL WILL SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD
BY 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS AS A WEAK RIDGE
REBUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE
RIGHT DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE
GFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN
MANUEL REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NHC
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT WITH A MORE GRADUAL BEND IN
THE MOTION...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...OF THOSE AIDS AT
DAYS 3 AND 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 23.2N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: MANUEL - Tropical Depression

#100 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:54 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013
500 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

...MANUEL SLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 107.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAZATLAN TO ALTATA
* CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. MANUEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...5 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATE
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT
MANUEL IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. MANUEL IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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