WPAC: PABUK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:32 pm

00z Best Track stays at 50kts.

19W PABUK 130922 0000 21.2N 143.2E WPAC 50 985

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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#42 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 8:11 pm

still forecast to become our 7th typhoon of the season...
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:56 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED WITH ONLY WEAKLY DEFINED CENTRAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE WELL ORGANIZED LLCC, EVEN THOUGH
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC, BUT TROUGHING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE SYSTEM IS CREATING WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND HAS BEEN ADVERSELY
AFFECTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. AS THE ANTICYCLONE
DEVELOPS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS (05 TO
10 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH STEADY
SUPPORT OF THE LLCC WILL LEAD TO AN INTENSITY INCREASE THROUGH TAU
72. THE TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 72 AS
A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STR,
CREATING A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THIS
WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW TS 19W TO MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
EVENTUALLY TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AND STR CREATE AN ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW IN
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG, THE INFLUENCE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AROUND
TAU 120. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT THE
RECURVATURE POINT FOR TS 19W, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN


TXPQ21 KNES 212117
TCSWNP

A. 19W (PABUK)

B. 21/2032Z

C. 21.1N

D. 143.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...INNER CORE REMAINS VERY LARGE WITH NUMEROUS INNER VORT
LOBES ROTATING AROUND CENTRAL HUB. THIS IS DENOTED WELL BY MHS 1815Z AMSU
PASS...WHICH HAS A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION CENTER. LIKEWISE...THE
SWIR LOOP TRANSFERRING OVER TO VIS ALSO GIVES CLEAR INDICATION OF SW TO
NE MOTION VERY NEAR THIS AMSU PASS LOCATION ONLY 2HRS PRIOR. SO QUITE A
DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE. SIMILARLY THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT PARTICULARLY
CLEAR CUT WITH WELL CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING .65 ON LOG10 ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS BAND IS VERY WARM BUT FIRST VIS
IMAGE DOES SHOW CUMULIFORM TOPS TO THE CONVECTION INDICATIVE OF SOME
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE BAND.
AS SUCH DT IS 3.0. MET IS 3.0. PT IS 3.0 FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/1550Z 20.5N 144.0E AMSU
21/1815Z 20.7N 144.1E AMSU


...GALLINA
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Meow

#44 Postby Meow » Sun Sep 22, 2013 1:59 am

Now Pabuk is a severe tropical storm.

Image

STS 1320 (PABUK)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 22 September 2013

<Analyses at 22/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°00'(22.0°)
E142°40'(142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E141°40'(141.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°40'(23.7°)
E140°40'(140.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°25'(25.4°)
E139°25'(139.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°40'(27.7°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 2:44 am

19W PABUK 130922 0600 22.2N 142.7E WPAC 50 985

Best Tracks remains at 50 knots...
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#46 Postby stormkite » Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:20 am

No.20 PABUK

Issued at(KST) : 2013.09.22. 16:00
Date(UTC) Position Central Pressure (hPa) Maximum Sustained
Wind(m/s) Radius of 15 m/s(km) Intensity Scale Moving Direction Moving Speed(km/h) Radius of 70% probability(km)
Lat
(N) Lon
(E) m/s km/h
2013.09.22. 06:00 Analysis 22.1 142.8 985 27 97 330
(SW 250) Normal Medium NNW 15
2013.09.23. 06:00 Forecast 23.9 140.8 975 34 122 370
Strong Medium NW 12 140
2013.09.24. 06:00 Forecast 25.9 139.1 970 36 130 400
Strong Medium NW 12 230
2013.09.25. 06:00 Forecast 28.0 138.7 965 38 137 450
Strong Medium NNW 10 320
2013.09.26. 06:00 Forecast 31.2 140.6 970 36 130 400
Strong Medium NNE 17 500
2013.09.27. 06:00 Forecast 34.9 145.1 985 27 97 330
Normal Medium NE 24 650
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:39 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 23.8N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 24.5N 140.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 25.3N 139.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 26.2N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 28.5N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 30.5N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 32.4N 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 141.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A VERY BROAD AND RAGGED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW. HOWEVER,
A SLOW CONSOLIDATION APPEARS TO BE TAKING PLACE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER, THIS IS OFFSET BY LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR AS THE STR WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
GENERATED BY INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL
PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, PEAKING
AT 75 KNOTS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS PABUK IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE CYCLONE GETS EMBEDDED IN
THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 19W WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY TAU
120. CONCURRENTLY, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WILL CAUSE ITS STEADY DECAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE - EVEN THOUGH ALL
MEMBERS INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE BEFORE ANY IMPACT TO
JAPAN - REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD AT THE TURN, HENCE, THE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#48 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 3:04 pm

Still at 50 knots as of 2100 UTC.
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#49 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:41 pm

I don't know but it's hard to think that it will make it to TY status (especially as per JMA) with a lack of deep convection. But we'll see, models are cranking up this system especially the Euro...


BTW, if you look at the GFS model, it looks like Pabuk will "open up" the ridge south of Japan that causes all vorticities to track eastward/northeastward. Is that even possible?
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:54 pm

Upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA.

WTPQ20 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1320 PABUK (1320)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 23.8N 141.6E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 25.3N 139.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 250000UTC 27.1N 138.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 260000UTC 29.8N 140.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#51 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:56 pm

What is the latest Best Track and how do I access the wPac best track page? Thanks.
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 22, 2013 8:01 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:What is the latest Best Track and how do I access the wPac best track page? Thanks.


What I have is this site where not only WPAC files are updated but from all the basins. Right now only Usagi and Paduk are active.

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/sectors/atcf_sector_file
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#53 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 8:16 pm

It's very near typhoon strength. Just 4 mph to go...
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#54 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:51 pm

I have a question. Can that small island inside the eye cause weakening? It's very tiny compared to the eye.
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Re:

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:53 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I have a question. Can that small island inside the eye cause weakening? It's very tiny compared to the eye.


No,is very small to cause any weakening.
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#56 Postby euro6208 » Sun Sep 22, 2013 10:34 pm

on the verge of becoming the 7th typhoon of the season...


WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) STRUCTURE HAS UNDERGONE
STEADY IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS A BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY HAS BEEN BUILDING FROM
THE EAST, ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM AND IN TOWARDS THE
CORE OF THE LLCC. A RECENT 222251Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS THE LLCC IS
NEARLY ENCOMPASSED BY THE BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A CONSOLIDATING
EYEWALL FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE INCREASING
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS, AND IS PART OF
THE REASONING BEHIND THE RECENT INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION NEAR
THE LLCC. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A RIBBON OF DRY AIR
PENETRATING TOWARDS THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY; HOWEVER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THIS FEATURE HAS STARTED
TO WEAKEN AS THE WARM TROPICAL AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH REMAINS THE
DOMINANT INFLOW SOURCE. A REGION OF STRONGER SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR
REMAIN ON THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF TS 19W, BUT IS CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN CHINA RE-ORIENTS THE STR TO BRING THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN KEPT TO THE EAST OF THE
CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE BASED ON THE TRACK TRENDING EASTWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW INTO
THE POLEWARD CHANNEL WILL KEEP TS 19W ON A POSITIVE INTENSITY CLIMB
THROUGH TAU 48, REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU
48 THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE, LEADING TO A
SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS PABUK IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE CYCLONE
GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 19W WILL BECOME A COLD
CORE LOW BY TAU 120. CONCURRENTLY, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL CAUSE A STEADY DECAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE -
EVEN THOUGH ALL MEMBERS INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE BEFORE
ANY IMPACT TO JAPAN - REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD AT THE TURN, HENCE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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RL3AO
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#57 Postby RL3AO » Sun Sep 22, 2013 10:56 pm

SAB gives it a T4.0
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stormkite
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#58 Postby stormkite » Sun Sep 22, 2013 11:04 pm

Image[/url]
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phwxenthusiast
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#59 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:42 am

Iwo To (RJAW) reported 32G64KT about 3 hours ago with a pressure of 965hPa...
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#60 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:54 am

Still a STS at 12:00 UTC JMA forecast.

WTPQ20 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1320 PABUK (1320)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 25.1N 140.8E GOOD
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 27.4N 138.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 251200UTC 29.8N 140.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 261200UTC 33.5N 145.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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