WPAC: PABUK - Post-Tropical

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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:32 am

735
WWMY80 PGUM 200310
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
110 PM CHST FRI SEP 20 2013

GUZ001>004-201400-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
110 PM CHST FRI SEP 20 2013

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE MARIANAS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN NEAR 14
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 147 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING
SLOWLY AND ERATICALLY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY
NORTHWARD. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARIANAS OVER THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING WAS ALREADY REPORTED ON GUAM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY. OFFSHORE SEAS OF 10 FEET OR MORE CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT.

THIS SYSTEM SHOWS STRONG POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

STANKO
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 7:18 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 146.3E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 200326Z AMSU IMAGE
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUAM SHOWS AN
IMPROVING LLCC WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER; THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM GUAM INDICATE SLP NEAR 996 MB WITH NORTHWESTERLY
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS. THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A SECONDARY BROAD LLCC LOCATED NEAR 17.5N
148.6E. A 200009Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A BAND OF GALE-FORCE WINDS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION WITH WEAKER CORE
WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THESE TWO AREAS WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE DISTINCT SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS,
WHICH WILL THEN TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE COMPLEX
SITUATION AND CLOSE PROXIMITY (ABOUT 285 NM SEPARATION DISTANCE),
BOTH AREAS ARE COVERED UNDER THIS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#23 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 20, 2013 12:55 pm

Another TCFA:

WTPN21 PGTW 201700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191651Z SEP 13//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
275 NM RADIUS OF 16.7N 146.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 201132Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BANDING
DISPLAYED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS WRAPPING INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP CONVECTION AREA. A 201115Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED, NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH OVER MARIANA ISLANDS
WITH WINDS 05 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE CENTER AND 30 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OVER 30 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
WHILE VWS REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE CENTER
OF THE DISTURBANCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MODERATE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211700Z.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#24 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:08 pm

Image

huge blowup of convection over the marianas...more heavy rains for us...
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#25 Postby euro6208 » Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:09 pm

925
WWMY80 PGUM 201400 CCA
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1200 AM CHST SAT SEP 21 2013

GUZ001>004-202300-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
1200 AM CHST SAT SEP 21 2013

CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MARIANAS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO BE THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THE HEAVIEST RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE MARIANAS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF HEAVY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND WILL BE MARKEDLY DRIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD.

OFFSHORE SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT WILL STEADILY INCREASE TO
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 FEET BY MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS SYSTEM SHOWS STRONG POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. STAY INFORMED ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN FOR ANY
FURTHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

WILLIAMS
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#26 Postby Alyono » Fri Sep 20, 2013 1:34 pm

One problem


the well defined LLC is located well to the north with the other invest. That IS the TD, no matter what JTWC and JMA call the TD. It's near 19N and 146.5W
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#27 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 20, 2013 9:43 pm

NRL took off 91W so this is TD 19W.

WTPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201651Z SEP 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 145.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 145.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 22.2N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 23.4N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 24.6N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.2N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.6N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 30.2N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 145.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM
NORTHWARD OF ANDERSEN AFB,GUAM HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
210000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND
220300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 201651Z SEP 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 201700). REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#28 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:12 am

expecting another typhoon out of this...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#29 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:18 am

Hello, Pabuk! JMA just upgraded this to a TS, and is expected to be the 4th official typhoon of the season. I wonder if it has a shot to make at least a Cat3.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#30 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:29 am

Image

upgraded to tropical storm pabuk...

WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.3N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.7N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 23.1N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 24.3N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 25.2N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 26.9N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 28.5N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 30.6N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 144.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
SOUTHEASTWARD OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 19W

#31 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:10 am

166
WTPQ31 PGUM 210947
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PABUK (19W) ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP192013
800 PM CHST SAT SEP 21 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PABUK...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.7N 144.7E

ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 390 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF TINIAN
ABOUT 455 MILES NORTH OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL
STORM PABUK WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 144.7 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM PABUK IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 11 MPH. PABUK IS
FORECASTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL COURSE WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TAKING PABUK AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM PABUK
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM PABUK WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON SUNDAY MORNING AT 2 AM.

$$

MCELROY
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#32 Postby stormkite » Sat Sep 21, 2013 6:03 am

TS 1320 (PABUK)
Issued at 09:55 UTC, 21 September 2013

<Analyses at 21/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°40'(19.7°)
E145°00'(145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 22/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°00'(23.0°)
E142°55'(142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N24°40'(24.7°)
E141°35'(141.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°25'(27.4°)
E140°10'(140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 8:26 am

12z Best Track at 40kts.

19W PABUK 130921 1200 20.6N 144.4E WPAC 40 993
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#34 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 21, 2013 8:49 am

I have no clue what, if anything, JTWC is looking at. An ASCAT had 50 KT winds overnight

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds255.png
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:28 am

WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SUSTAINED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE AND CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE TOWARDS CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A 211030Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS
STRONG NORTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW IS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR
A STEADY INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS PABUK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE STR
BEGINS TO MODIFY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE TROUGH PROPAGATES
EASTWARD, THE STR WILL BUILD BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH, TRIGGERING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. BY THE END OF FORECAST, TS
19W WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BUT WITH NOTABLE
VARIATIONS IN THE RECURVATURE. IN VIEW OF THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS
LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. //

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#36 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:48 am

except that forecast has the wrong initial intensity. Saying it will reach 50 KT in 24 hours when the data clearly shows it is already 50 kts?
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:30 pm

18z Best Track up to 50kts.

19W PABUK 130921 1800 20.6N 143.7E WPAC 50 985
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Re:

#38 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:08 pm

Alyono wrote:except that forecast has the wrong initial intensity. Saying it will reach 50 KT in 24 hours when the data clearly shows it is already 50 kts?

JTWC tends to ignore anything other than dvorak :lol:
For example their best track has Megi at 903mb even with recon confirmed sub-900 pressure
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:38 pm

21:00 UTC: Pabuk will help kick up the ACE for WPAC even more after Usagi is gone.

WDPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS STEADILY IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS WITH
BROKEN BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED
ON A RECENT 211058Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC
WITH 45 TO 50 KNOT WIND BARBS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD DID NOT APPEAR TO REPRESENT THE SYSTEM ACCURATELY AS THEY
INDICATED A 35 KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT SLOWLY WEAKENS, ALLOWING IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE IMPROVING UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DECREASES TO MODERATE
VALUES (10 TO 15 KNOTS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ALL POSITIONS HAVE SEEN AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY, WITH A MAXIMUM
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
B. TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. AN IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH STEADY
SUPPORT OF THE LLCC WILL LEAD TO AN INTENSITY INCREASE THROUGH TAU
72. THE TRACK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 72 AS
A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STR,
CREATING A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THIS
WEAKNESS WILL ALLOW TS 19W TO MOVE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
EVENTUALLY TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 19W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH AND STR CREATE AN ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW IN
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STR.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG, THE INFLUENCE OF
THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AROUND
TAU 120. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT THE
RECURVATURE POINT FOR TS 19W, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS LOW.//


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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:27 pm

Is this looking subtropical? Or is it just me? :lol:

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