WPAC: PABUK - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#61 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 23, 2013 8:45 am

Image

Pabuk becomes the 7th typhoon of the season


WTPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 19W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 25.2N 140.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 140.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 26.2N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 27.2N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.7N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.3N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 34.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 41.7N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 25.5N 140.4E.
TYPHOON 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM NORTHWEST OF IWO TO,
JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. //
NNNN



19W PABUK 130923 1200 25.2N 140.7E WPAC 65 974
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 23, 2013 8:49 am

TPPN10 PGTW 231210

A. TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK)

B. 23/1132Z

C. 25.1N

D. 140.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 1.4 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG


TXPQ21 KNES 230906
TCSWNP

A. 19W (PABUK)

B. 23/0832Z

C. 24.9N

D. 141.0E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU/SSMI

H. REMARKS...OW EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN MG FOR EYE NO. OF 4.5. NO ADJUSTMENT
IS MADE AS RING IS MG AS WELL...SO DT IS 4.5. MET IS 5.0. PT IS 4.5. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

23/0436Z 24.4N 141.1E AMSU
23/0520Z 24.8N 140.9E AMSU
23/0539Z 24.8N 141.1E SSMI


...GALLINA


CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR PABUK (19W) 2013
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2013092306
SATCON (3mem): MSLP = 961 hPa MSW = 76 kt
ADT: 995 hPa 41 kt Scene: CRVBD
CIMSS AMSU: 964 hPa 81 kt Bias Corr: 0 (JTWC)
SSMIS: SSMISP hPa SSMISW kt
CIRA AMSU: 952 hPa 89 kt Tmax: 6.7


majority of 4.0 and higher...
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#63 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:08 am

WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 41 NM NORTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE
BANDS HAVE MAINTAINED OVERALL DEPTH BUT HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER AROUND A
BROAD AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND REFERENCED FROM THE
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO TO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY SURFACE PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO TO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM
IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE SAME RIDGE IS
ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A TRANSITORY TROUGH TO
THE NORTH IS ALSO ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THESE OUTFLOW CHANNELS
ARE HELPING SUSTAIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ALIGNED OVER THE LLCC. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST RIM OF THE STR
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL A SECONDARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WEAKENS THE STR. THIS WILL DRIVE THE
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, TY 19W WILL ACCELERATE AND BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE INTO THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INTENSIFY THE
CYCLONE, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS. TY 19W WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW BY
TAU 72 AS IT GETS EMBEDDED DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY PABUK IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. CONCURRENTLY, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL CAUSE A STEADY DECAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS
SOME SPREADING AT THE TURN BUT HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#64 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:31 pm

Image

Image

Typhoon Pabuk looking impressive...65 knots seems a bit low given the impressive structure and defined eye...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/19W/19W_floater.html
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#65 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 23, 2013 4:45 pm

2100 UTC prognostic reasoning states that slight weakening has been occurring. Maybe it peaked. :(

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#66 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:20 pm

Why is this thread named Pabuk-Typhoon?
Per JMA, this is still a severe tropical storm and that's the official classification right now.
JTWC = unofficial
JMA = official
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#67 Postby stormkite » Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:55 pm

Little band of uniform cold cloud around the eye wall is the only feature worth noting at present on the above image.
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#68 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 23, 2013 8:03 pm

JMA still has it as Severe Tropical Storm at 00:00 UTC.

WTPQ20 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1320 PABUK (1320)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 25.8N 139.9E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 90NM NORTHEAST 60NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 325NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 28.5N 138.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 260000UTC 32.2N 142.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 270000UTC 38.7N 150.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#69 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:44 am

19W PABUK 130924 0000 25.9N 139.6E WPAC 65 974

Best Track remains at 65 knots...
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#70 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:49 am

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT TY 19W HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 232238Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
THE SSMI IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE IS PRODUCING WEAK TO
MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 65 KNOTS (T4.0) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 19W IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 19W IS FORECAST TO TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS AND BEGINS TO RE-CURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH ONLY A 100 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72. TY 19W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU
36 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AFTER TAU 36, TY 19W WILL
ACCELERATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS, WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TY 19W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT DYNAMIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GROUPING.//
NNNN


4.0- PGTW

TXPQ21 KNES 240312
TCSWNP

A. 19W (PABUK)

B. 24/0232Z

C. 26.0N

D. 139.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.5/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...LARGE RAGGED OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN DG FOR EYE NO OF
4.5...SURROUNDING RING OF MG IS A ZERO EYE ADJ. CF OF 4.5 IS LOWERED A
.5 DUE TO LARGE/RAGGED APPEARANCE. DT IS 4.0...BUT GIVEN NATURE OF EYE
FEATURE DT IS REJECTED IN FAVOR OF MET. MET IS STEADY TREND OF 4.0. PT
IS 4.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

23/2033Z 25.6N 139.9E SSMIS
23/2238Z 25.8N 139.7E SSMIS


...GALLINA


Maintaining typhoon strength...
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:13 am

Image

Latest...
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#72 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:57 am

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 SEP 2013 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 26:42:35 N Lon : 139:01:17 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 958.3mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.9 4.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 34 km

Center Temp : +2.0C Cloud Region Temp : -58.6C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 105km
- Environmental MSLP : 1001mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.9 degrees


Pabuk looking mighty impressive tonight...
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#73 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:58 am

19W PABUK 130924 1200 26.6N 139.1E WPAC 70 970

strengthens to 70 knots...
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#74 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:17 am

Is JMA asleep?
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#75 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:03 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (PABUK) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 26.6N 139.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 139.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 28.2N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 30.1N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 32.7N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 36.2N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 44.7N 158.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 27.0N 139.1E.
TYPHOON 19W (PABUK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN
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euro6208
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Severe Tropical Storm

#76 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:11 am

Pabuk trying to become annular...?

Image

looking more impressive each hour, i wouldn't be surprised if this was stronger than 70 knots......90 knots seems reasonable...
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#77 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:36 am

Yeah, convection isn't that strong, but it is very well organized. I'd have it at 85 kt personally.
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Re:

#78 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 10:20 am

'CaneFreak wrote:Is JMA asleep?


another fail for jma...

There've been like this this entire season not upgrading storms with EYES...This is already the 7th typhoon but to them, we only had 4...the other 3 had eyes lol...go on wikipedia and you will see...

i guess the only way for this to get upgraded is if it strengthens into a category 3 typhoon (1 min winds)... :roll: because they have a problem with minimal typhoons (1 min winds)...
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Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#79 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:30 am

wow numbers from KNES at 5.0!

Image

Image

unbelivable! pabuk surely beating the forecast continued warming of the eye....this looks like a category 3 typhoon right now...not 70
knots...annular perhaps...

2013SEP24 153200 5.3 949.6 97.2 4.9 4.9 4.9 NO LIMIT ON FLG 6.73 -58.24 EYE/L 49 IR 57.8 27.12 -138.70 SPRL MTSAT2 32.4

Current Satellite Estimate
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#80 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 11:57 am

I agree it could be argued at either T4.5 or T5.0. I'd go 5.5 on structure, then the decision could be to either drop 0.5 or 1.0 on relative convective weakness.
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