WPAC: PABUK - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 15967
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC
Contact:

Re:

#81 Postby RL3AO » Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:28 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I agree it could be argued at either T4.5 or T5.0. I'd go 5.5 on structure, then the decision could be to either drop 0.5 or 1.0 on relative convective weakness.


Its a 5.0 because the medium or light grey convection isn't wide enough on the western side.
0 likes   
https://twitter.com/codyyeary
Graduate student at NC State studying tropical waves

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#82 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 1:43 pm

What strength is a T5.0?
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 722
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#83 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 24, 2013 3:01 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:What strength is a T5.0?


About 90 knots or 105 mph.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique#Details_of_the_method
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 722
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#84 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 24, 2013 4:53 pm

The JMA needs to wake up, Still a Severe Tropical Storm.
Meanwhile the JTWC has Pabuk a a 100 mph Catageory 2 Typhoon.

JTWC Warning #15

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13098
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#85 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 5:22 pm

Wow now up to 85 knot!

Meanwhile, Dvorak near 100.




CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 947.1mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.1 5.1
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

#86 Postby phwxenthusiast » Tue Sep 24, 2013 7:33 pm

uhm, what is going on with JMA?! I know we're not supposed to criticize any agency on this forum but i'm very perplexed at their persistence on classifying Pabuk as a STS and not a TY... i really hope they increase its intensity on the next warning as it looks like the system may be reaching its peak later today..
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13098
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#87 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:48 pm

strengthens a bit more up to 90 knots. Category 2
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#88 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:58 pm

euro6208 wrote:strengthens a bit more up to 90 knots. Category 2


Nearly a Category 3 in my opinion.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#89 Postby stormkite » Tue Sep 24, 2013 10:05 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:What strength is a T5.0?


CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

I hope this helps you out .
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2594
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Southern Caribbean

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#90 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Sep 24, 2013 10:08 pm

Thanks!
stormkite wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:What strength is a T5.0?


CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

I hope this helps you out .
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

#91 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:40 pm

Still no typhoon...

Image

Image
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6450
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#92 Postby Alyono » Wed Sep 25, 2013 12:48 pm

IMO, JMA needs to look at a satellite image. They're making IMD look competent
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

Re:

#93 Postby Extratropical94 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:19 pm

Alyono wrote:IMO, JMA needs to look at a satellite image. They're making IMD look competent


I wonder what's going on at their office...
I can't imagine that NO ONE says: "Hey guys, don't you think it could be stronger than you believe?"
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

User avatar
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2536
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Location: Marietta,GA

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#94 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 1:47 pm

The JMA has been acting so bizarrely this year that anything won't surprise me right now 8-)
0 likes   

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#95 Postby phwxenthusiast » Wed Sep 25, 2013 8:03 pm

supercane4867 wrote:The JMA has been acting so bizarrely this year that anything won't surprise me right now 8-)


i think you can say that for just about every year.. :lol:

there's always a storm in a season that, for some bizarre reason, JMA will just be one-step behind with the warnings.. there was a storm last year which was never upgraded to a typhoon, same in 2011... etc. Pabuk is somewhat interesting because of the discrepancy with the intensities; i mean, JTWC is at a freaking Cat-2 intensity of 90kt whereas JMA is keeping it at 60kt... :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 13098
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#96 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 8:19 pm

Can we change the RSMC to JTWC, NHC, or even NWS Guam? :lol:

JMA making our season look bad and slow every year. To make it worse someone on wikipedia uses JMA stats. :lol: :roll:
Embarrassing.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 376
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

#97 Postby Grifforzer » Wed Sep 25, 2013 10:48 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/20 ... Y-list.txt

Tokyo Advance Dvorak Technique has been showing T5.5 as Pabuk's peak intensity (normally a JMA 85 kts)
0 likes   

User avatar
Extratropical94
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2737
Age: 23
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#98 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Sep 26, 2013 3:38 am

euro6208 wrote:Can we change the RSMC to JTWC, NHC, or even NWS Guam? :lol:

JMA making our season look bad and slow every year. To make it worse someone on wikipedia uses JMA stats. :lol: :roll:
Embarrassing.


The thing is that although some of JMA's intensity estimates are as far from reality as they can be, they're still official and are therefore legitimately used on Wikipedia.
I posted a while ago in another thread that it would be best IMO if all basins in the world were officially monitored by an agency that is known to be reliable and trustworthy and that has the knowledge and resources to provide the public with informative advisories.
With the help of that, it would be much easier to compare intensities and to classify tropical cyclones instead of always having to calculate wind speeds between 1, 3, or 10 minute averages.

The JTWC is already doing a great job and if they also had the graphics like the ones the NHC publishes then IMO they should be the agency that acts as the RSMC in EVERY basin.
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' North, 9° 9' 20'' East, Station at W-Underground: Link
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2795
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

#99 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Sep 26, 2013 6:51 am

Dry air is one of the reasons why there were only three official typhoons so far...another reason is JMA itself... :lol:
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6450
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: PABUK - Typhoon

#100 Postby Alyono » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:47 am

Extratropical94 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:Can we change the RSMC to JTWC, NHC, or even NWS Guam? :lol:

JMA making our season look bad and slow every year. To make it worse someone on wikipedia uses JMA stats. :lol: :roll:
Embarrassing.


The thing is that although some of JMA's intensity estimates are as far from reality as they can be, they're still official and are therefore legitimately used on Wikipedia.
I posted a while ago in another thread that it would be best IMO if all basins in the world were officially monitored by an agency that is known to be reliable and trustworthy and that has the knowledge and resources to provide the public with informative advisories.
With the help of that, it would be much easier to compare intensities and to classify tropical cyclones instead of always having to calculate wind speeds between 1, 3, or 10 minute averages.

The JTWC is already doing a great job and if they also had the graphics like the ones the NHC publishes then IMO they should be the agency that acts as the RSMC in EVERY basin.


NO NO NO! Good god NO!

JT has had many of the same issues as JMA this year. Plus, their forecasters simply do not have the same level of experience due to the military rotations to different assignments
0 likes   


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests