WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#241 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:31 am

Image

CPA to hong kong- 5 miles...


WTPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 120.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 120.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.2N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 21.7N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.2N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 22.6N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.5N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 120.2E.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM SOUTHWARD OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#242 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 21, 2013 6:48 am

Video update just posted, two deaths and two people missing now in the Philippines. A tornado reported in Bago city and winds up to 172kph seen in southern Taiwan.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAt8_F0F4g8[/youtube]
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#243 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:44 am

USAGI making world headlines-has the lead story on Drudge Report................."SUPER TYPHOON UNLEASHED"
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#244 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 8:26 am

12z Best Track at 110kts.

17W USAGI 130921 1200 21.1N 119.7E WPAC 110 941
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#245 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:30 am

WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM HAS NOW
BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL AFTER DRAGGING ACROSS THE NARROW LUZON
STRAIT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
TY 17W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY USAGI IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS
IT BEELINES TOWARDS HONG KONG THEN MAKES LANDFALL INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SLIGHTLY INCREASING
VWS BUT WILL STILL BE A STRONG TYPHOON WHEN IT IMPACTS HONG KONG AND
CHINA. AFTER LANDFALL, 17W WILL RAPIDLY DECAY TOWARDS FULL
DISSIPATION DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#246 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:44 am

Love this line:

A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#247 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:08 am

Footage out of Southern Taiwan

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgajKc-uaE4[/youtube]
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#248 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:10 am

Wall Street Journal covering USAGI and a Hong Kong hit.......(see Drudge)
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#249 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:55 am

How strong would it have to hit Hong Kong directly to do major damage?
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#250 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:02 am

Crazy-that's a great question-135 winds or 121?

It's all a little mysterious to me being on the other side of the world.......don't know much about their infrastructure etc.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#251 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:35 am

EWRC fail...

Right now both eyewalls have collapsed

Image
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#252 Postby madness » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:41 am

Typhoon Wanda (1962) made landfall in Hong Kong with a central pressure of 953HPa during high tide. The resulting storm surge and destructive winds in the 1962 event killed 434 people and left 11,000 homeless.

Based on the JMA forecast it is reasonable to predict 955HPa this time at landfall.
Comparing two typhoons is difficult and this is an estimation only.

3-sec gusts of about 200km/hr is going to cause problems in anyone's language

High tide at Hong Kong on Sunday night will be at 10.58pm local time
JWTC has predicted landfall at 2am Monday morning, so the storm surge should not be as bad as 1962 and today the city is much better prepared.

I expect Hong Kong to be mostly shutdown for Monday and close to normal by Tuesday

Edit: just saw the previous post about the EWRC fail - good.
Anything that weakens this typhoon before landfall is good
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#253 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 21, 2013 12:13 pm

supercane4867 wrote:EWRC fail...

Right now both eyewalls have collapsed

Image


Taiwan radar is showing that the EWRC may be completing

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

system seems to have become better organized in the past few hours, since that microwave image was taken
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#254 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 21, 2013 12:15 pm

madness wrote:Typhoon Wanda (1962) made landfall in Hong Kong with a central pressure of 953HPa during high tide. The resulting storm surge and destructive winds in the 1962 event killed 434 people and left 11,000 homeless.

Based on the JMA forecast it is reasonable to predict 955HPa this time at landfall.
Comparing two typhoons is difficult and this is an estimation only.

3-sec gusts of about 200km/hr is going to cause problems in anyone's language

High tide at Hong Kong on Sunday night will be at 10.58pm local time
JWTC has predicted landfall at 2am Monday morning, so the storm surge should not be as bad as 1962 and today the city is much better prepared.

I expect Hong Kong to be mostly shutdown for Monday and close to normal by Tuesday

Edit: just saw the previous post about the EWRC fail - good.
Anything that weakens this typhoon before landfall is good


with a system this large, low/high tide often does not matter. In fact, landfall after high tide can be worse. What can happen is that the high tide comes in when winds are of TS intensity. The peak tidal surge then comes inland on top of the trapped high tide. Happened in North Carolina with Fran that actually struck at low tide
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#255 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sat Sep 21, 2013 12:25 pm

James Reynolds just loaded his footage from Saturday morning in Taiwan. Incredible stuff.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0ZP-UJee4g[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#256 Postby beoumont » Sat Sep 21, 2013 1:07 pm

RobWESTPACWX wrote:Footage out of Southern Taiwan

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgajKc-uaE4[/youtube]


Looks like quite a steep drop off from that shoreline, as the waves are breaking so close to the shore.
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#257 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:06 pm

the eye is becoming visible again on satellite imagery. This is NOT good at all
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#258 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 2:30 pm

18z Best Track down to 100kts.

17W USAGI 130921 1800 21.4N 118.9E WPAC 100 948


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#259 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:03 pm

the weakening is over now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

latest satellite data still has 110 kts
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#260 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:06 pm

Come on Weather Guys 'n Gals ........we need stats stats and more stats. We need visuals.
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