WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#261 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 3:36 pm

21:00 UTC.

WDPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A
STEADY DECLINE IN DEEP SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
DEFINED WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE INFLOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN IMPACTED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOUR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED OVER TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA, TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TY 17W. THIS INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM MATCHES UP WITH THE DECREASE
IN CONVECTION OBSERVED IN THE EIR LOOP. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEE-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS. THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING
LAND INTERACTIONS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A STEADY DECLINE THROUGH
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE RAPID DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
DISRUPTION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN




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#262 Postby Alyono » Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:04 pm

75 KT at landfall?

Did IMD write this forecast?
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#263 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 4:18 pm

Any surface obs available in the area?
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#264 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:21 pm

Looks a lot better the past few hours. Strong convection around the center and the eye is warming.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#265 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:22 pm

The fact that its eye has long obscured doesn't aid dvorak numbers for Usagi at all
We have to wait till landfall to see if there's any available observation helps determine the actual intensity
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#266 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:25 pm

I see the same thing the guys at SAB do. DT of 4.5, but the MET is higher, which seems more representative.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#267 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:29 pm

Much more organized

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#268 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:35 pm

Eye is warming again...a nice burst of -60 to -80 cloud tops the past 6 hours or so...that's worrisome...however, I do wonder if this will miss Hong Kong to the north a bit...current forecast has it a little further north and I am wondering if this trend will continue...has to go due west at this point to impact Hong Kong directly and the current satellite loops still show a wnw motion...hmmmm...
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#269 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 5:49 pm

If track does trend more north it will cause more impact on Shenzhen than HongKong

Very similar:

Usagi

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Dujuan

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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#270 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:32 pm

00z Best Track stays at 100kts.

17W USAGI 130922 0000 21.8N 117.9E WPAC 100 948
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Re:

#271 Postby Meow » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:33 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:Come on Weather Guys 'n Gals ........we need stats stats and more stats. We need visuals.


Yes. We can read advisories at many websites anytime.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#272 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:39 pm

latest visible loop... looks like it's strengthening again
Image
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#273 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:39 pm

T5.5 from JTWC

TPPN11 PGTW 220032
A. TYPHOON 17W (USAGI)
B. 21/2332Z
C. 21.8N
D. 117.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T5.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET AND PT
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
21/1956Z 21.5N 118.5E MMHS
21/2101Z 21.5N 118.4E SSMS

BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#274 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 21, 2013 7:53 pm

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#275 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 8:05 pm

This is another excellent example of just a slight change in motion can result in a big change in where the core hits! And close to landfall, too!
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#276 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 8:07 pm

Image

CPA to hong kong- 17 miles...
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#277 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 8:51 pm

I saw this on twitter:
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... _china.gif

Looks like the outer eye is starting to shrink! Strengthening?
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Re:

#278 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:19 pm

The core almost always tightens up for most tropical cyclones when they approach land as the friction begins to increase. I think it is holding its own or maybe even beginning to slightly weaken a bit as expected. We have almost lost all of the -80 C cloud tops as of this writing.

brunota2003 wrote:I saw this on twitter:
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... _china.gif

Looks like the outer eye is starting to shrink! Strengthening?
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Re: Re:

#279 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:46 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:The core almost always tightens up for most tropical cyclones when they approach land as the friction begins to increase. I think it is holding its own or maybe even beginning to slightly weaken a bit as expected. We have almost lost all of the -80 C cloud tops as of this writing.


While the greys have disappeared on AVN, the eye has warmed and become more distinct, both on IR and Visible!
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#280 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:54 pm

Image

Image

bad news...strengthening is occuring...
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