WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

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#281 Postby RL3AO » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:56 pm

Still looks like a T5.5/100kt
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#282 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:57 pm

Yeah the eye is more visible right now compared several hours ago. Looks like the inner eyewall won against the outer.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#283 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 9:57 pm

WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RESURGENCE
IN THE EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST THREE TO SIX HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF CHINA. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS FROM THE 211800Z FORECAST WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED OVER TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA, TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TY 17W. THIS INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTHS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A
RAPID WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS DISRUPTED BY MAINLAND CHINA.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#284 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:04 pm

Any strengthening occured should be minor and I don't expect much change in intensity from this point through landfall
Clearly visible concentric eyewall structure, it still under an eyewall replacement

Image
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#285 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:06 pm

If it stays on a west-northwest track, it will miss Hong Kong by 80-100 miles! DOH?! :eek:

TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG KONG

euro6208 wrote:WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RESURGENCE
IN THE EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST THREE TO SIX HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF CHINA. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS FROM THE 211800Z FORECAST WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED OVER TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA, TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TY 17W. THIS INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTHS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A
RAPID WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS DISRUPTED BY MAINLAND CHINA.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#286 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:13 pm

triple concentric eyewall
Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#287 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:22 pm

An oil platform about 150km offshore currently reporting 979mb with 10-min sustained wind of 56kt

Image
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#288 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:33 pm

TXPQ27 KNES 220314
TCSWNP

A. 17W (USAGI)

B. 22/0232Z

C. 22.1N

D. 117.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...0045Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS. MG EYE IS
EMBEDDED IN B FOR A ENO OF 5.5. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY A COLD RING OF W
RESULTS IN NO EYE ADJUSTMENT MAKING THE DT A 5.5. PT IS 5.5 AND MET IS
5.5 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/2101Z 21.5N 118.3E SSMIS
21/2210Z 21.6N 118.1E SSMIS
22/0045Z 21.8N 117.8E SSMIS


...TURK
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#289 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:34 pm

remove
Last edited by Annie Oakley on Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#290 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:35 pm

Yeah...definitely not strengthening...maintaining strength but tightening the core would be a good way of putting it I think...

euro6208 wrote:TXPQ27 KNES 220314
TCSWNP

A. 17W (USAGI)

B. 22/0232Z

C. 22.1N

D. 117.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...0045Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS. MG EYE IS
EMBEDDED IN B FOR A ENO OF 5.5. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY A COLD RING OF W
RESULTS IN NO EYE ADJUSTMENT MAKING THE DT A 5.5. PT IS 5.5 AND MET IS
5.5 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/2101Z 21.5N 118.3E SSMIS
21/2210Z 21.6N 118.1E SSMIS
22/0045Z 21.8N 117.8E SSMIS


...TURK
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#291 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:43 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:If it stays on a west-northwest track, it will miss Hong Kong by 80-100 miles! DOH?! :eek:

TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG KONG

The new forecast track has already shifted to the east and Usagi is still heading north of it

Image
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#292 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:48 pm

My PERSONAL guess for a landfall point was 22.8N and 115.4W (roughly). I'm not sure what that spit of land is, other than it is a peninsula.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#293 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:50 pm

Typhoon Usagi continues to enhance the southwest monsoon, bringing a lot of rain here in southern Luzon...
I'm in the orange area... non-stop rain here since dawn!!
Image
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#294 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:56 pm

I don't see any orange area in your post.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#295 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:59 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:I don't see any orange area in your post.


or maybe yellowish orange he meant? :lol:
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#296 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:00 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:I don't see any orange area in your post.

It's north of the P in Philippines. Light blue over the P, dark blue north of that, then water and the next island has a dot of orange on it.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#297 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:00 pm

Look harder...it's there...northern Philippines, southern Luzon

Annie Oakley wrote:I don't see any orange area in your post.
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#298 Postby euro6208 » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:01 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:If it stays on a west-northwest track, it will miss Hong Kong by 80-100 miles! DOH?! :eek:

TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG KONG

The new forecast track has already shifted to the east and Usagi is still heading north of it



wow so with each warning, landfall keeps going further north...maybe good news for hong kong...
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#299 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:05 pm

WOW...did you figure that out all by yourself? Everyone give him a round of applause :clap:

Sorry, I had to do it...you left yourself wide open... :lol:

Lord, I apologize for that there and be with the pigmes in New Guinea. Amen.

euro6208 wrote:wow so with each warning, landfall keeps going further north...maybe good news for hong kong...
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Re: WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

#300 Postby Annie Oakley » Sat Sep 21, 2013 11:14 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
Annie Oakley wrote:I don't see any orange area in your post.

It's north of the P in Philippines. Light blue over the P, dark blue north of that, then water and the next island has a dot of orange on it.



Ahhh....thank you for your sharp eye and CaneF's intel. I see it now.
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