WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

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Meow

WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#1 Postby Meow » Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:29 pm

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South China Sea

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 114E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:35 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 113.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 160226Z METOP-B DEPICTS WEAK,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 160227Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH QUADRANT AND ALSO DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
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WPAC: INVEST 90W

#3 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:37 pm

In the South China Sea. 915 km West of Manlia, Philippines.

15kts 1010mb 162.0N, 113.1E

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RE: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#4 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Sep 16, 2013 4:54 pm

JMA Tropical Depression

Image

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 16.3N 113.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 160226Z METOP-B DEPICTS WEAK,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WEST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO
THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 160227Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTH QUADRANT AND ALSO DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, JUST SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Hang on, I made this thread, yet, there is posts above mine.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 16, 2013 4:58 pm

:uarrow: There was already a 90W thread made by Meow so I merged the thread you made with this one.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:10 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3N
113.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 112.5E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. A 161541Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND
ALSO DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, JUST
SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 17, 2013 10:30 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3N
112.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 112.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
A 170205Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH SPARSE CONVECTION WHILE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
HAS NOT CHANGED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#8 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:59 pm

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 172030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 112.4E TO 16.2N 107.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
171732Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N
111.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
112.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SHOW A DECREASE IN SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF ALMOST 3 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. A RECENT 171817Z AMSU-
B IMAGE SHOWS EVIDENCE OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AS
WELL AS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) (15 TO 20 KNOTS). HOWEVER, EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH
SPEED DIVERGENCE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH OF AN EXHAUST MECHANISM TO
SUSTAIN ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. DUE TO THE CURRENT MODERATE VWS THE
CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED BUT THE SHEAR TENDENCY OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED OVER THE LLCC AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, RANGING FROM 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
RUNS THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD TOWARDS
VIETNAM. IF THE SYSTEM REACHES WARNING STATUS, IT WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE A SHORT-LIVED, WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DUE TO THE
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182030Z. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:01 am

20130918 0232 17.0 -111.0 T1.0/1.0 90W 90W
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 90W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:45 am

Image

18th tropical cyclone of the year but will only be short lived...

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172021Z SEP 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 110.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 110.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 16.4N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.1N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 109.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 172021Z SEP 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 172030). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 17W (USAGI) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD BUT CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION
WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES. AN 180231Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH AN 180450Z OSCAT PASS
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO
CONSOLIDATE, EVEN AS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS
POOR. THE CURRENT POSITION HAS BEEN POSITIONED ON THE CENTER OF THE
BROAD CIRCULATION WHICH IS CLOSE TO POSITION FIXES FROM RJTD AND
PGTW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER DATA AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED AND
FLARING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND
EASTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TD 18W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS
WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL CHINA. TD 18W WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AS IT PROCEEDS WEST INTO THE
VIETNAMESE COAST WITH DISSIPATION FORECASTED BY TAU 24 DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LANDFALL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
LOSING THE VORTEX WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS DUE TO ITS WEAKENED
STATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:27 am

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED AND FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PERIPHERIES. AN 181016Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED WITH A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND A THIN BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS IN
THE AREA AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND EASTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW.
TD 18W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY TO THE WEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS
WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL CHINA. TD 18W WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAINTAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AS IT PROCEEDS WEST INTO THE
VIETNAMESE COAST WITH DISSIPATION FORECASTED BY TAU 24 DUE TO THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LANDFALL. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
LOSING THE VORTEX WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS DUE TO ITS WEAKENED
STATE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 18W

#12 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:44 pm

Already well inland

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