ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

From Dr. Maue......

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 13m

@BigJoeBastardi upper-level shear has abated, quite favorable conditions for a TD

[NDG]

Shear might be less but still getting fairly sheared to the east.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=4

[Dean4Storms]

If it wraps or develops deeper convection around the western periphery we have liftoff IMO!

[MGC]

Visible loop this morning shows a tight circulation. The west side of the circulation is sucking in the cooler dry air from Texas (Yes Rock, Texas has done it again) with all the warm juicy air and convection on the east side.....clearly a frontal low. Small chance it could transition to warm core as the front slowly washes out. Dewpoints are down in the mid 60s here on the coast this morning, time to pull the jacket out the closet....MGC

[ScottNAtlanta]

Shear might be less but still getting fairly sheared to the east.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=4

...but that shows a pretty vigorous LL circulation on the edge of the convection

[ROCK]

Not bad looking for a frontal low...

[SouthernMet]

Still bares watching imo

[NDG]

Visible loop this morning shows a tight circulation. The west side of the circulation is sucking in the cooler dry air from Texas (Yes Rock, Texas has done it again) with all the warm juicy air and convection on the east side.....clearly a frontal low. Small chance it could transition to warm core as the front slowly washes out. Dewpoints are down in the mid 60s here on the coast this morning, time to pull the jacket out the closet....MGC

Just because dewpoints are in the 60s along the coast it does not mean that the low pressure area is sucking it, dewpoint are well into the 70s and even low 80s all around the immidiate low pressure area.

[cycloneye]

NHC mentions this low again at 2 PM TWO but with 0% chance.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well that should settle that. Another case of looks much better on satellite than actually is. Sounds familiar

[LaBreeze]

Well that should settle that. Another case of looks much better on satellite than actually is. Sounds familiar

The same old same old.

[NDG]

I don't know about calling it a broad low,Auvergne elongated but it is very well defined.

[ronjon]

Any low pressure at 1002 mb in the GOM in Sept bears watching. NHC really downplaying it but should they? Seems like an overreaction to getting burnt on their 80% chance earlier with 95L.

[NDG]

Any low pressure at 1002 mb in the GOM in Sept bears watching. NHC really downplaying it but should they? Seems like an overreaction to getting burnt on their 80% chance earlier with 95L.

Great point.

[NDG]

Too bad it missed most if the circulation.

[NDG]

The COC is naked now, it continuous to get affected by NW shear.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... duration=7

[bamajammer4eva]

Latest from JB on this

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h
Spinning centers over the gulf in Late September dont warrant a mention, but if it were near the Azores it would

[tolakram]

Enough of this please. I hesitated before, but the JB NHC bash is icing on the cake.

If you disagree say so, but do it respectfully. Accusing them of downplaying the storm because they got burnt before is not respectful and adds nothing to the conversation.

[Hurricaneman]

Enough of this please. I hesitated before, but the JB NHC bash is icing on the cake.

If you disagree say so, but do it respectfully. Accusing them of downplaying the storm because they got burnt before is not respectful and adds nothing to the conversation.

I think all Joe Bastardi quotes on his ideas on tropical development are OK but if the post he gives has a bash on the NHC should be removed or at least the bash part removed preferably by the poster so thanks for reminding of no bashing of the NHC

as for this it never really had a chance as the front was too close and shear too high but is still a wet system for pretty much the entire gulf coast

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LaBreeze]

Still have not seen the sun in two days - I thought that today we would seem some, but the clouds are hanging in quite heavily. Local met mentioned the "possibility" of a low in the western GOM maybe heading north.