WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:26 am

WDPN33 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT TS 22W HAS CONTINUED TO FURTHER
CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AND DEEPEN AROUD THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION CAN
ALSO BE SEEN IN A 300423Z TRMM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45
KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE SAME VALUE FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A
POINT SOURCE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS ALLOWING
FOR FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TS 22W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) THAT IS LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND GOOD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH A POLEWARD TRACK TROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME VARIANCES AS MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFER IN THE EXTENT OF THE NER AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY NORTH.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NER
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF
JAPAN. INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT TAU 120 WHILE THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF KOREA. MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING ENSEMBLES AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT, AS A BIFURCATION HAS DEVELOPED PAST TAU 72. THE WESTERN
GROUPING, WHICH INCLUDES NAVGEM, EGRR, JGSM AND GFDN, SHOWS A STRONG
STR BUILDING IN, WHICH WOULD TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE
EASTERN AND MORE POLEWARD GROUP, WHICH INCLUDES ECMWF, GFS, HWRF,
AND COAMPS-TC, SHOWS A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM AND A WEAKER STR, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY
TAUS AND FAVORS THE EASTERN GROUPING IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS THIS
GUIDANCE HAS PROVED MORE CONSISTENT. OVERALL, DUE TO THIS
BIFURCATION, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:56 am

WDPN33 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 661 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
REVEALS THAT TS 22W HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO BUILD AND DEEPEN AROUD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP AND POSITION FIXES
FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES DUE TO THE
CONTINUALLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A POINT SOURCE IS
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TS 22W IS TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) THAT
IS LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND GOOD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
100 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN, WITH A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE FIRST 72 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES AS
MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFER IN THE EXTENT OF THE NER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
GENERALLY NORTH. NAVGEM AND GFDN SHOW A MUCH SHARPER TURN TO THE
WEST WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT ORIENTATION OF THE
NER AND THE SYSTEMS RECENT MOTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NER
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF
JAPAN. INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT TAU 120 WHILE THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF KOREA. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, AS A BIFURCATION CONITINUES TO
PERSIST PAST TAU 72. THE WESTERN GROUPING, WHICH INCLUDES NAVGEM,
EGRR, JGSM, AND GFDN, SHOW A STRONG STR BUILDING IN, WHICH WOULD
TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARDS TAIWAN. THE EASTERN AND MORE POLEWARD GROUP,
WHICH INCLUDES ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC, SHOWS A WEAKER STR,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE POLEWARD TRACK TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE
EARLY TAUS AND FAVORS THE EASTERN GROUPING IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY
OF A POLEWARD TRACK VICE A TURN TO THE WEST AS WELL. OVERALL, DUE TO
THIS BIFURCATION, LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:00 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THAT TS 22W HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND
DEGREE OF WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND CLOSELY-SPACED POSITION
FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 50 KNOTS IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND
KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A POINT SOURCE THAT IS
ENHANCING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TS 22W IS TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
THAT IS LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFDN,
WITH A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES AS MODELS SLIGHTLY DIFFER IN THE EXTENT OF THE
NER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS GENERALLY NORTH. NAVGEM AND GFDN SHOW A MUCH
SHARPER TURN TO THE WEST WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY CONSIDERING THE CURRENT
ORIENTATION OF THE NER AND THE SYSTEMS RECENT MOTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT FROM THE NER
TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN SOUTH OF
JAPAN. INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM IN THE EXTENDED TAUS AS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT TAU 120 WHILE THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, JUST SOUTH OF KOREA. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, AS A BIFURCATION CONTINUES TO PERSIST
PAST TAU 72. OVERALL, DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS,
LOW CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. //
NNNN
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#24 Postby stormkite » Tue Oct 01, 2013 8:17 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2013

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM FITOW ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 131.3E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- -------
12UTC 02.10.2013 18.9N 130.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2013 20.2N 130.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2013 21.1N 130.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2013 21.9N 130.3E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2013 22.4N 129.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.10.2013 22.8N 127.8E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.10.2013 22.7N 126.0E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.10.2013 22.3N 123.6E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2013 22.0N 121.6E INTENSE ITENSIFYING RAPIDLY
/tmp/fileG15neP


Image
Last edited by stormkite on Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:15 pm

Looks really good right now.
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:42 pm

Up to 60 knots, 9th typhoon of the season looming.


WDPN33 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DEVELOPING EYE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, TS 22W HAS MEANDERED A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY HAVE
ACCOMPANIED THIS DEVIATION IN TRACK. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND TRACK SPEEDS
ARE SLOWER THAN REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TO THE EAST, TOWARD THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE INTENSIFICATION RATE SHOULD DECREASE AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND ALONG TRACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT BEGINS TO DECREASE. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AFTER TAU 48 AND
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, CARRYING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 AND DIVERGES
THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SECOND STEERING RIDGE.
INTENSITY SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER IN THIS PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
AFTER TAU 72, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARD THE YELLOW SEA. THE
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NAVGEM DETERMINISTIC
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. GIVEN CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODELS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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#27 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:18 pm

JTWC now brings this storm within 29 NM of Kadena AFB here in a few days...I miss being in Okinawa during this season only because them buildings bring you no fear in the storms. Seems though these WPAC threads have gotten quiter. But going back to topic I have been in Okinawa when Storms come like this at the last minute do a wobble either way and it misses the Island..hopefully it doesn't get to bad if it does come close.
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:15 am

My latest video on this.

Really looks like a eye setting up on Vis Imagery now as well. I wouldnt be totally caught off guard if we have a Typhoon by this evening.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IE5uA2IcvSs[/youtube]
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#29 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:00 am

From the Kadena Weather team...I don't know of any folks ok Okinawa any more but just in case heres what they are forecasting..And if you are new I was there in 2011 When we had a memorial day typhoon come through names Songda and it was reported we had winds gusting up to 130 mph good thing is the got great building and windows there nothing to worry about.

2. IF TROPICAL STORM FITOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AS FORECAST, DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS OR GREATER (SUSTAINED) ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR FROM 05/0200L TO 05/1900L. THE STRONGEST WINDS ON OKINAWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AT 90 KNOTS WITH 110 KNOT GUSTS AT 05/1000L.

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#30 Postby StormingB81 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:30 am

As it continues the projected path has the turn more sharp and now has it turning before Okinawa missing it by 46 NM gotta see if this trend continues
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby beoumont » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:27 am

06z GFS even a sharper west turn within 48 hrs, bringing the center 130 miles south of Okinawa; but near Miyak-jima and Ishigaki-shima then over Taipei and toward the China mainland. 90 hr. GFS prog below. But still within (western edge of) the huge JTWC cone.

Image
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#32 Postby beoumont » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:28 am

06z GFS even a sharper west turn within 48 hrs, bringing the center 130 miles south of Okinawa; but near Miyako-jima and Ishigaki-shima then over Taipei and toward the China mainland. 90 hr. GFS prog below. But still within (western edge of) the huge JTWC cone.

Image
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#33 Postby stormkite » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:51 am

Severe Tropical Storm FITOW at 08:00 HKT 02 October 2013
Forecast Positions and Intensities

Date time Position Classification Maximum sustained wind near centre
08:00 HKT 03 October 2013 20.7 N 130.1 E Typhoon 120 km/h
08:00 HKT 04 October 2013 23.0 N 130.1 E Typhoon 140 km/h
08:00 HKT 05 October 2013 25.4 N 128.4 E Severe Typhoon 155 km/h

Image
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My 2 cents

IMO Fitow will turn more to a northwest track towards the botom tip of south korea.

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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:15 am

Ya, models are all over on this one. Makes me want to punch a Fitow in the face.

Some of the factors being weighed in on right now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:34 am

WDPN33 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS BROKEN CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS A TRUE EYE FEATURE IS
YET TO DEVELOP. A 020438Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A TIGHTLY
WRAPPED SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
THE LLCC ARE SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON
THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE AMSU IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KNOTS BASED UPON A WIDE RANGE
OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 45 TO 60 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE REMAINS OVER THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 22W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST
ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) THAT IS
LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND TRACK SPEEDS
ARE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND IN
THAT DIRECTION.
B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE EAST.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST OF JAPAN AND BECOME THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE. THIS BUILDING STR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THE SYSTEM
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48
AND DIVERGES THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN THIS
PERIOD AND VWS INCREASES. A MORE DRASTIC DROP IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TREKS IN THE YELLOW SEA AND LAND INTERACTION,
ALONG WITH FURTHER DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, BEGIN TO
DEGRADE THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE
AFTER TAU 72, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS TRENDING TO THE WEST WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS, ECMWF DETERMINISTIC, AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. GIVEN CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:42 am

WDPN33 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 463 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) CONTINUES TO DEPICT BROKEN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
021138Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED LLCC THAT HAS YET TO BECOME FULLY
CONSOLIDATED, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DISTINCT MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
LOWER FREQUENCIES OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED 37GHZ SSMIS PASS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60
KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THAT RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS AND THE BROKEN NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE OF
DIFFLUENCE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TS 22W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) THAT IS LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER WESTWARD THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN.
B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER TO THE EAST.
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS SOUTHERN JAPAN IN THE WAKE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST OF JAPAN. THIS
BUILDING STR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE AS
IT BEGINS TO PUSH THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND DIVERGES THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS
IN THIS PERIOD AND VWS INCREASES. FURTHER DECREASING ENVIRONMENTAL
FACTORS AND LAND INTERACTION WITH EVENTUAL LANDFALL INTO COASTAL
CHINA, SHOULD BEGIN TO DEGRADE THE SYSTEM AT A MORE ACCELERATED RATE
PAST TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU
72, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS,
CONTINUE TO TREND FURTHER TO THE WEST AS THEY SHOW A STRONGER STR
BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS TRENDING TO THE
WEST WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN
THE MODELS AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:55 pm

Is the storm having difficulties? I see the forecasted peak is being lowered every advisory.
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#38 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:17 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, A STEADY STREAM OF
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FEEDING FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
HAVE BECOME APPARENT. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A 021713Z MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS MOSTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ABOVE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TS 22W IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING LOW VWS,
ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) CURRENTLY ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND
EXTEND WESTWARD AND ASSUME STEERING OF THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL PUSH
THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AND
DIVERGES THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS FITOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT DISCUSSED IN
PARA 2 STRENGTHENS. FURTHERMORE, THE VWS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. AFTER TAU 96, TS 22W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI
AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 72. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#39 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:52 pm

Fitow is having structural problem which the large ragged eyewall really impedes intensification
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Re: WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:54 pm

WDPN33 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
CONTINUES TO REVEAL A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH BROKEN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 022129Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE AND RECENT POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS ON THE HIGH END OF
DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
RJTD, AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS. AFTER TAU 36, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF
JAPAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND EXTEND WESTWARD AND INFLUENCE THE
STEERING OF THE CYCLONE. THIS STR WILL PUSH THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING
LOW VWS, ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27 TO 28 DEGREES
CELSIUS) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 AND DIVERGES
THEREAFTER. BASED ON THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 36, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE AS COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT STRENGTHENS. FURTHERMORE, VWS IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. TS
FITOW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI BY TAU 72 AND
BEGIN DISSIPATION DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AFTER TAU 72. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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