ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 27, 2013 6:52 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962013.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309280014
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2013, DB, O, 2013092800, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962013
AL, 96, 2013092700, , BEST, 0, 137N, 438W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2013092706, , BEST, 0, 157N, 453W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2013092712, , BEST, 0, 177N, 469W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2013092718, , BEST, 0, 196N, 484W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2013092800, , BEST, 0, 214N, 500W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=115754&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
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#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:12 pm

Looks like either a sneak attack on bored people, or another false attempt to get things going. Which will it be?
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Re:

#3 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks like either a sneak attack on bored people, or another false attempt to get things going. Which will it be?


I'd go with the latter, I don't see any indication of any spin at the surface.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#4 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:35 pm

this one by bermuda?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 27, 2013 7:55 pm

This loop tells the story about what is going on with 96L and the interaction with that big ULL. Unless that goes away it wont let 96L develop. Saved loop.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:03 pm

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#7 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:12 pm

Thanks for posting this cyclone, but I don't see anyone having interest in this one, :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

#8 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 27, 2013 8:31 pm

I am not very interested in this either, unless it somehow manages to suddenly develop, I see only a large and disorganised system being disrupted by an ULL.

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#9 Postby ninel conde » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:08 pm

possible it might make it to a weak TS.
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Re:

#10 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:58 pm

NHC issued special outlook
UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE
THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS PRODUCING
WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW
DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.


ASCAT also shows the low that has formed over the last few hours.
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/cur_25km_TEST/zooms/WMBas99.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 40% / 50%

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:43 am

8 AM TWO:

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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#12 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:40 am

96L has a nice closed circulation apparent on vis sat loop this morning near 23.3N & 50.5W, though SW of most of the convection.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_F ... m8vis.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 40% / 50%

#13 Postby wxman57 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:17 am

I'm really pulling for it as I need another TS for our in-house September forecast contest. Really need it to be a hurricane for 1st place, but I'll take 2nd place points. It does look as impressive as some storms that the NHC didn't downgrade to depressions this year.

No, it's not the low near Bermuda (as someone asked). It's well east of Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 40% / 50%

#14 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:27 am

Looking at the organization of this currently, and I'm not sure how it isn't already a TD, probably at TS if it's continuing to produce gale-force winds.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 40% / 50%

#15 Postby curtadams » Sat Sep 28, 2013 12:39 pm

Agree with HurricaneBelle. This thing looked pretty hopeless to me from the start but it just popped up a very distinctive sheared CDO and there's no question it's a TC right now. The only question is whether it will stay one long enough for the NHC to tag it.
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#16 Postby lester » Sat Sep 28, 2013 1:01 pm

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 900 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE-
DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FROM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 60% / 70%

#17 Postby NDG » Sat Sep 28, 2013 1:20 pm

Image
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#18 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 2:25 pm

Needs deeper and more organized convection over the center.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 60% / 70%

#19 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 5:28 pm

Image
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 282000
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 24.4N 50.4W TO 30.0N 49.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281745Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.3N 50.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KNOTS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE PRESENCE OF A
CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE
DEFINED. THE FEATURE IS UNDER A SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 292000Z.//
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 60% / 70%

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:34 pm

70% / 80%

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
900 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
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