ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#101 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:37 pm

00z Best Track stays at 40kts.

AL, 11, 2013100200, , BEST, 0, 281N, 437W, 40, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1014, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JERRY, M,
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#102 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:58 pm

Doesn't look overly good in my opinion, but it is better than the sheared cumulus clouds we saw this morning. I'd say about a 50-60% chance its peak intensity was 50 mph/1005 mbar.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#103 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 9:47 pm

Jerry now down to 40 mph. I wouldn't be surprised to wake up tomorrow and find a convectionless depression. :roll:
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#104 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:32 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rbtop-long.html

I had a feeling earlier that dry air may be a problem and it looks like it has ingested quite a bit of it now, mid-level circulation appears to be a half degree south so the shear is relatively low, and clouds are thickening with new convection forming near the center.
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#105 Postby stormkite » Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:24 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2013
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 44.0W^M
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112013

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2013 27.7N 44.0W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2013 28.3N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2013 29.1N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2013 30.2N 41.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2013 31.4N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH






Jerry's heading for a holiday in france.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#106 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:33 am

Looks very good right now, actually. There is distinct banding, cloudtops are have cooled since last night, and the center seems tucked right under the coolest convection.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#107 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:43 pm

Jerry down to TD.

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 42.0W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#108 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:33 pm

R.I.P

...JERRY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3
Location: 31.8°N 38.7°W
Moving: ENE at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
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