ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Models

#21 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:30 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962013_al112013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309290124
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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#22 Postby StormingB81 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:36 pm

Are the models showing anything to just up and out to sea?
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#23 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:38 pm

Invest 96L has taken advantage of diurnal maximum to push it over the threshold to tropical depression status. The good news for it is that models indicate the development of an anticyclone overhead throughout the day tomorrow; this should lower shear and give it a chance to intensify. After that, it appears that an upper-level trough should pass to its north. It may impart some modest shear -- not destructive -- atop the system. Depending on positioning though, it may also ventilate the storm. This was one of the difficulties of forecasting Kirk and Michael last year.
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Re:

#24 Postby ozonepete » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:48 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Invest 96L has taken advantage of diurnal maximum to push it over the threshold to tropical depression status. The good news for it is that models indicate the development of an anticyclone overhead throughout the day tomorrow; this should lower shear and give it a chance to intensify. After that, it appears that an upper-level trough should pass to its north. It may impart some modest shear -- not destructive -- atop the system. Depending on positioning though, it may also ventilate the storm. This was one of the difficulties of forecasting Kirk and Michael last year.


Good assessment. And a lot of us hope you are right because we need this for the storm2k pool, lol. :wink:
Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 70% / 80%

#25 Postby ozonepete » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:48 pm

cycloneye wrote:BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962013_al112013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309290124
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


So we have a TD, right Luis?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 70% / 80%

#26 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:54 pm

ozonepete wrote:
cycloneye wrote:[b][size=150]BEGIN
NHC_ATCF

So we have a TD, right Luis?


All indications are is going to be a TD.

AL, 11, 2013092900, , BEST, 0, 249N, 504W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M
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#27 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:55 pm

Could this be a surprise shocker like Michael, or just fade away gracefully?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 70% / 80%

#28 Postby ozonepete » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:58 pm

cycloneye wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
cycloneye wrote:[size=150]BEGIN
NHC_ATCF

So we have a TD, right Luis?


All indications are is going to be a TD.

AL, 11, 2013092900, , BEST, 0, 249N, 504W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, [b]ELEVEN
, M


And I should have added it sure likes like one. It's over really good SST with no mid-level dry air around and the high shear is all staying just enough to the west.
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Re:

#29 Postby ozonepete » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:59 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Could this be a surprise shocker like Michael, or just fade away gracefully?


You never know, right? Although none of the models I saw make it a hurricane so far. Let's see what the NHC says.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 28, 2013 9:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 50.2W
ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

Look at this loop.

Image
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#31 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 9:49 pm

Should peak as a 45 mph storm according to the first discussion. However, the thing is that Michael's forecast was very similar to this at first, but it managed to become a Category 3. We'll probably have a better insight to this tomorrow morning.

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#32 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 8:27 am

Any ASCAT or other passes lately?
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Re:

#33 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 8:31 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Any ASCAT or other passes lately?


I am not sure, but by the current satellite presentation, it doesn't look very good to me. Sheared apart and losing convection. Best Track still has it as a 30 knot tropical depression.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#34 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 9:52 am

Exactly what I posted above is in the discussion!

THE DEPRESSION HAS A POORLY ORGANIZED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING.


Yet another system is going through 'ULL bullets'. Will this be another one that weakens unexpectedly in the face of underestimated wind shear like Humberto in its second phase?
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#35 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 29, 2013 1:37 pm

Still as TD 11 per 18z Best Track.

AL, 11, 2013092918, , BEST, 0, 268N, 480W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M
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#36 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 2:56 pm

LLC seems to be moving under the convection as shear wanes ever so slowly. Probably will have Jerry at 11pm if trends persist.

12z GFS jumped off-board with intensification over the next 5 days, but both the LGEM and SHIPS jumped on; both show a strong TS in 120 hours.

Regardless, it's probably not a threat to land, though it might get close to the Azores.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#37 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 3:44 pm

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
POORLY-ORGANIZED AND IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO IMPART STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED
EARLIER TODAY.
MORE RECENTLY...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION
OBSCURED THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...
HOWEVER...THAT THE LATEST HWRF AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE
SYSTEM PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
...SO
THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.

In my opinion, nearly all indications point to a weak and disorganised storm being affected by persistent shear, at least for the next day or so. Even though the intensity is of low confidence, I still don't see this passing 50 or 60 mph at most, unless of course, conditions become a lot better suddenly, which, given the trends of this season, seems highly unlikely to me.

Please note that this is only my ameteur opinion.

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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#38 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Sep 29, 2013 5:13 pm

The 11L link has gone from the NRL TC page. Upgrade to Jerry in next advisory.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#39 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 6:54 pm

I'm not too convinced this is Jerry just yet, though. :lol:
Will have further insight when the 0z Best Track arrives.

Image

Elongated and quite sheared. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#40 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Sep 29, 2013 7:34 pm

Still a TD.

AL, 11, 2013093000, , BEST, 0, 269N, 473W, 30, 1010, TD
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