ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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#61 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 4:43 pm

It looks like a T3.5 to me - fully closed with a low-end eye for 4.0, drop 0.5 for weak convection.
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#62 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 30, 2013 4:50 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:It looks like a T3.5 to me - fully closed with a low-end eye for 4.0, drop 0.5 for weak convection.


Yeah, at least. Also now that we can see the center we can follow the motion and it looks like it is starting the clockwise loop.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#63 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 4:57 pm

Pulling a Michael 2012 anybody? :lol:

By the way, it looks to be making a run at annular or subtropical status.

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Re: Re:

#64 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:08 pm

ozonepete wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:It looks like a T3.5 to me - fully closed with a low-end eye for 4.0, drop 0.5 for weak convection.


Yeah, at least. Also now that we can see the center we can follow the motion and it looks like it is starting the clockwise loop.


Look what we have at microwave.

Image
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#65 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:15 pm

Yeah this calls for a Special Advisory.
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#66 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:24 pm

I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.
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Re:

#67 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:30 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.

Maybe. We have to remember that it's diurnal minimum in the East Atlantic though.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#68 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:36 pm

Given the appearance and the last OSCAT pass, I would personally say this is probably about 45kts right now at least. It looks too well organized to only be 35kt.
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#69 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:36 pm

I'd just use the MET of T3.0 (if you said normal deepening).
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#70 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:05 pm

This has to be more than 40 mph. The only way I see it not being stronger than 40 mph is if it is subtropical, which it is currently showing some characteristics of.

Image

EDIT: Off-topic, but I am now a Category 3! This is my 800th post! :jump: :jump: :jump:

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Re: Re:

#71 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:07 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.

Maybe. We have to remember that it's diurnal maximum in the East Atlantic though.


We know you meant diurnal minimum. :)
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Re:

#72 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:18 pm

HURAKAN wrote:I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.


Hey there Sandy. :) But here is the mid and hi water vapor and SAL. Does not look like dry air is a problem. I would agree with TX13 that it's more likely DMIN right now. There are some interesting dynamics going on in there for sure though.

Mid-level Water Vapor:
Image

High level Water Vapor:
Image

SAL:
Image
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#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:22 pm

All things considered, I would put it at 50 kt right now.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#74 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:25 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:This has to be more than 40 mph. The only way I see it not being stronger than 40 mph is if it is subtropical, which it is currently showing some characteristics of.

EDIT: Off-topic, but I am now a Category 3! This is my 800th post!

First of all, congrats on your 800th. :)

And although it might look a little subtropical to you, it is not at all. This is over very warm SSTs with completely tropical air surrounding it. It has no fronts attached and is moving SE further into the tropical air. It's interesting form is due to some pretty complex dynamics including the fact that it basically merged with or absorbed a mid to upper level low earlier today.
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Re: Re:

#75 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:28 pm

ozonepete wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.

Maybe. We have to remember that it's diurnal maximum in the East Atlantic though.


We know you meant diurnal minimum. :)

Yeah it was a typo...thanks. :)

The SHIPS and LGEM have been bullish with this system since yesterday, bringing it up to strong tropical storm status by 120 hours. Maybe they're on to something.
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Re: Re:

#76 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:35 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The SHIPS and LGEM have been bullish with this system since yesterday, bringing it up to strong tropical storm status by 120 hours. Maybe they're on to something.


Well they might be given the fact that it's dropping southward toward even warmer water and moving into a lower shear environment as well. In addition, what little dry air exists is only moderately dry and is way off to the southeast; it's forecast path doesn't imply that it will move into that area since it will be executing a clockwise loop.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#77 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:42 pm

ozonepete wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:This has to be more than 40 mph. The only way I see it not being stronger than 40 mph is if it is subtropical, which it is currently showing some characteristics of.

EDIT: Off-topic, but I am now a Category 3! This is my 800th post!

First of all, congrats on your 800th. :)

And although it might look a little subtropical to you, it is not at all. This is over very warm SSTs with completely tropical air surrounding it. It has no fronts attached and is moving SE further into the tropical air. It's interesting form is due to some pretty complex dynamics including the fact that it basically merged with or absorbed a mid to upper level low earlier today.


Thanks! :ggreen:
Still waiting for special advisory. :)
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#78 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:26 pm

Ah ha! Best Track up to 45 knots. :D

AL, 11, 2013100100, , BEST, 0, 275N, 440W, 45, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 40, 1016, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, ,
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#79 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:47 pm

You can clearly see the low level center and mid level center on this RGB satellite. The greyish areas are low level clouds and brighter whites the mid to higher levels. Clearly the low level center is now situated right in the middle of the mid level circulation. It may look a little ragged but it looks pretty stacked.

Image
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#80 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:54 pm

It just needs deeper convection...the structure looks very solid now.
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