ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#81 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:57 pm

By the way, Happy New Month to all! We're less than 1 hour into the new month of October 2013, according to UTC! And what do we have to herald the new month? The tenth named storm of the season on its strengthening streak. How wonderful!
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#82 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:00 pm

ozonepete wrote:You can clearly see the low level center and mid level center on this RGB satellite. The greyish areas are low level clouds and brighter whites the mid to higher levels. Clearly the low level center is now situated right in the middle of the mid level circulation. It may look a little ragged but it looks pretty stacked.

http://i189.photobucket.com/albums/z174/philnyc_2007/satrgb2013-10-010015_zps11216d76.jpg

That's an odd looking storm.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#83 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:02 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:That's an odd looking storm.


complimenting this very odd season we've had up to this point. And this one may not be done intensifying either as there is increasing convection again on the east, and the downward trend of the rest of it seems to have ended.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#84 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:14 pm

Hammy wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:That's an odd looking storm.


complimenting this very odd season we've had up to this point. And this one may not be done intensifying either as there is increasing convection again on the east, and the downward trend of the rest of it seems to have ended.


StormExpert you have made an understatement, lol.

Hammy, yes this looks to be on a notable upswing.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#85 Postby ozonepete » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:38 pm

CIMSS ADT is getting closer to finding the center. And CI (current intensity) number is going up again. Should go way up when the automated program correctly locates the center.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#86 Postby Macrocane » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:49 pm

Could Jerry become the 3rd hurricane of this strange season? I hope the NHC doesn't forecast hurricane strenght, if they do Jerry will probably dissipate soon given how hard has been this season to forecast :lol:
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#87 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:56 pm

Freaky looking

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#88 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:35 pm

This is one of those storms that would have been nice to form close to land (but small enough not to affect it much) as it would be rather interesting to see how it looks on radar as well as get some better idea of intensity.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#89 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:45 pm

...JERRY STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 43.8W
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#90 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:56 pm

This is really a 50/50 chance this becomes a hurricane.
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#91 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Sep 30, 2013 10:24 pm

I'm not quite sure how to describe this appearance. :P

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#92 Postby Macrocane » Mon Sep 30, 2013 10:32 pm

The northern half looks like a hurricane, and the southern half like a tropical depression...can we call those blobs halves?
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#93 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:17 am

Chances of this becoming a hurricane are practically 0% now as its been overtaken by shear. Would not surprise me if it turns out that it came close though, it looked a lot stronger than 45kt.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#94 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:26 am

Looks quite terrible and down to 45 mph. I just knew it was too good to be realistic that I would see this storm stronger when I woke up this morning, even if it was 5 mph more. Because it's 2013, something MUST spoil it. And the thing that spoils it is never expected, it just badges into the heart of the storm with little warning. I would just expect this to degenerate very soon, and looking at the statistics now, I don't at all think this will restrengthen the least bit, since 2013 has ULLs and TUTTs or whatever else that linger around and overstay their welcome. Really bad when you can't see more than one storm this year strengthen steadily, without being kept back and hindered CONSTANTLY by all of this, which would be almost nonexistent in a regular season. I will change this thought if the system restrengthens, but right now, I am just disappointed.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#95 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:54 am

This reminds me of a tropical storm in WPAC in 2011. It had a very large eye-like feature but never became a typhoon/hurricane-equivalent.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#96 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 01, 2013 1:40 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rgb-long.html

convection may be trying to wrap back around again.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#97 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:05 pm

dexterlabio wrote:This reminds me of a tropical storm in WPAC in 2011. It had a very large eye-like feature but never became a typhoon/hurricane-equivalent.


You probably mean STS Talas:

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#98 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:45 pm

Best Track shows no change, so I suppose they'll hold the intensity at 45 mph? At least convection has reformed over the center, but it likely won't last for long, as that wind shear machine dominates the story. :x

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#99 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:49 pm

5PM advisory remains at 40 knots. Even though the discussion keeps it a TC for 5 days, I personally think it could dissipate by as early as tomorrow. In my opinion, Jerry is just way too weak to survive these ridiculously intense levels of wind shear impinging on it, for longer than a day or two. And the shear is forecast to only increase as time passes, which has a 99.9% chance of being true, considering 2013's powerful and persistent wind shear in most locations.

EDIT: Fixed some of the wording.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#100 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:22 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:I personally think it could dissipate by as early as tomorrow. In my opinion, Jerry is just way too weak to survive these ridiculously intense levels of wind shear impinging on it.


Shear is actually relaxing, and to the north it has actually decreased significantly over the last 24 hours.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF
Dry air will probably remain a problem but the circulation is still quite vigorous, and unlike a fast-moving tropical wave, even if shear increases (which is still a few days away) it will take awhile to spin down so I don't think dissipation is imminent. If anything it looks like it may once again try to intensify, and if it can fight off the dry air it may be able to exceed the first peak, given that unlike yesterday there is no lawnmower of shear headed towards it.

edit: forgot links.
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