ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

HurricaneTracker2031 · #81 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 4:24 pm

I see this as a 10/30 remain in next two

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#82 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 5:25 pm

floridasun78 wrote:when will nhc drop invest?

weds

#83 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:30 pm

Up to 20% but stays at 30% on 8 PM TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THESE RAINS WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

HurricaneTracker2031 · #84 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 6:50 pm

NHC raised the 48hrs outlook and kept the 5 day out at 30

wow..... I wonder what will be the 2am

CYCLONE MIKE · #85 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 7:40 pm

Going up from 10 to 20% is not a big deal in terms of chances of development. Don't see this doing much of anything but maybe bringing somebody along the gulf coast higher chances of rain, maybe. Even the remnants of the last gulf invest went right by us and we never got a drop of rain from it.

#86 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:01 pm

Guess the increase to 20% was in response to the 18z GFS closing it off in the southern Gulf.

TheStormExpert · #87 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:04 pm

Looks as if S. FL will be spared by all the rain from this, NWS office in Miami says in there discussion that the moisture stream will be farther west than previously expected most likely over the GoM. Rain chances here in WPB, FL are now maxing at 30% over the next 7 days according to the NWS.

#88 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:12 pm

00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100100, , BEST, 0, 150N, 808W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

blp · #89 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:29 pm

Vorticity is greatly improving. 850mb & 700mb are now more concentrated. The 500mb level is now showing up well just east of the low level vorticity. The potential is there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=

ronjon · #90 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 8:50 pm

What happened to 97L on the storm2k map?

#91 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:16 pm

ronjon wrote:What happened to 97L on the storm2k map?

Is a glitch as no renumber has occurred.

supercane4867 · #92 Postby **supercane4867** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 12:57 am

Code orange

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHEN
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK AND THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA TODAY. THESE RAINS WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

supercane4867 · #93 Postby **supercane4867** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 1:27 am

06Z up to 30kt

AL, 97, 2013100106, , BEST, 0, 158N, 819W, 30, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

caneman · #94 Postby **caneman** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:23 am

Looking much better to me this morning. Any models picking up on this?

caneman · #95 Postby **caneman** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:12 am

Where is everyone this morning? Clearly looks like we are in a ramp up phase.

CourierPR · #96 Postby **CourierPR** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:19 am

caneman wrote:Where is everyone this morning? Clearly looks like we are in a ramp up phase.

I agree. It appears to have more convection this morning. I think our crowd has become jaded over so many false alarms this season.

floridasun78 · #97 Postby **floridasun78** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:57 am

ABNT20 KNHC 011133
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 1 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK...AND THE SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

#98 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:29 am

Seems to be getting better organized...

#99 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:36 am

12z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013100112, , BEST, 0, 160N, 821W, 25, 1008, LO

#100 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:41 am

SHIPS show 700-500 MB RH values in the 40s in a couple of days, not favorable

ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 20% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 30% / 50%

Who is online