ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

NWS Melbourne

THU-SAT (PREVIOUS)...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WX COMING UP INTO THE SERN GOMEX FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN LATE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER...DETAILS W/R/T HOW
STRONG/CONSOLIDATED OF A SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE...WHERE IN THE
GOMEX (CTRL VS ERN) THE SYSTEM TRACKS...AND HOW FAST IT WILL EJECT
OUT AHEAD OF A LIKELY COOL FROPA NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT/WEAK RUN-TO-RUN
CONTINUITY...GOING INTO THE GORY DETAILS OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS
LIKELY AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...THE TREND
TOWARD INCREASING MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY THU-FRI...HAS
ALREADY BEEN LAID OUT IN PREVIOUS FCSTS. THE MODELS BY AND LARGE
SEEM TO AGREE WITH AT LEAST THIS MUCH...SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
STATUS QUO...WITH 40/50 POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHAVED A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF MAX TEMPS OWING TO ANTICIPATED INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE... DIDN`T MAKE ANY SIG CHANGES. WE`LL SEE WHAT
DOES OR DOESN`T COME TOGETHER IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%-30% at 8 PM TWO.


CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

[floridasun78]

i notice shear not drop as forecast alot sw shear

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013093000, , BEST, 0, 140N, 780W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[Dean4Storms]

00z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013093000, , BEST, 0, 140N, 780W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

I could end up being wrong, but I'm betting this consolidates much further SW from that location. More like 80W 11N

[ninel conde]

I have to agree with the assessment that this won't have a good future down the road. If it wanted to develop (as with most systems this year) it has to do it quickly and be decent storm, then get picked up in the westerlies to be of a significant wind impact to the Florida peninsula. However like everything thing else it is taking too long to get organized and eventually it will get strung out and pulled northeast in a mess due to the typical gulf conditions and provide rain to areas likely not wanting it. 2013 has been harsh, if something can go wrong for a system...it will. It needs to consolidate faster and really crank to have a good chance.

the problem is the west atlantic is dominated by a huge trof causing it to be stretched and strung out.

[LaBreeze]

It will run into a lot of dry air in the GOM.

[chaser1]

Okay, I can't even begin to describe how sick I am of all this dry air!!!!

The only thing that sucks more than the present hurricane season, will hopefully be a giant pair of Hoover and Dyson vacuums that with any luck, might "suck out" at least some of this unreal dry and polluted air that has permeated our planet for the last 6 months.

[boca]

People were surprised when I started that season cancel thread but it was really a joke I really thought the season had some hope.

[WPBWeather]

People were surprised when I started that season cancel thread but it was really a joke I really thought the season had some hope.

There is always "hope" --- until late November anyway.

[fci]

People were surprised when I started that season cancel thread but it was really a joke I really thought the season had some hope.

My hope is that is continues to be a dud and very boring from a Tropical Enthusiast standpoint.
I hope that my shutters remain dormant for another year!!!

[TampaFl]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
511 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2013

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE LONG RANGE DUE TO A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE
WEAKEST WITH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE/INVERTED TROUGH...WITH CANADIAN
AND GFS WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF. MODELS
HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WAITING ON
AN APPROACHING L/W TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE BEING EJECTED
EAST/NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CREATE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO ADVECT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WHICH WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TRENDED MAX
TEMPS A BIT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE AS CLOUDS/WEATHER SHOULD HOLD
AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA IS ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA ON
TUESDAY.

[Blown Away]

Some deeper convection this morning...

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013093012, , BEST, 0, 142N, 794W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 225, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[Sanibel]

Starting to grab a center IMO. Don't underestimate this.

[CourierPR]

Starting to grab a center IMO. Don't underestimate this.

It's starting to look suspicious to my untrained eyes.

[floridasun78]

Starting to grab a center IMO. Don't underestimate this.

??????

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html
Suspect area per 12z update...

[blp]

Still has a lot of work to do but it is starting the process of improving now based on vorticity, shear, and convergence maps.

Shear has let up some today and if you look at the vorticity it is starting to get less elongated. I think yesterday it was struggling with the influence of the trough which was stetching the system out. Still keeping an eye on it but I am not yet sold on development.

I think the models a few days ago mishandled the influence of the trough and shear that caused what was a decent low to mid level vorticity stack to become elongated.

Vorticity Maps
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

Convergence Maps
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=conv&zoom=&time=