ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

Riptide · #61 Postby **Riptide** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 11:02 am

This system is really taking its time, good ideas in this thread about this coming together albeit slowly. Nothing unusual or threatening about this one in comparison to other storms this season. Looks like the displaced center theme is coming back.

#62 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 11:28 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html
Early afternoon... Convection building... Circle is approximate 12z position...

Early this morning...

blp · #63 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 12:11 pm

IMO, this needs to start getting going either today or tomorrow, if not it will head into Yucatan with the low level flow and the remnants will merge with the front. It's best shot is to shoot the gap and get into the Eastern Gulf as previous runs had shown.

jhpigott · #64 Postby **jhpigott** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 12:22 pm

It looks like the lower level cloud deck around the low pressure area is starting to thicken - perhaps we will see some convection start to fire soon in that area?

#65 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 12:38 pm

2 PM TWO remains at 10%-30%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA TODAY...AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY.

floridasun78 · #66 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:02 pm

it look better and on sunday

#67 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:22 pm

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013093018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

#68 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:33 pm

The same old theme for 2013 continues for this invest. I just don't see this ramping up and as others have pointed out in a few posts previously on this thread, the prognosis down the road is not looking good. Plenty of dry air awaits 97L as the system approaches the GOM late this week.

I may be wrong, but I am going with the trend of 2013 with this system. This will be a potential heavy raimmaker for Cuba and the Florida peninsula, but I foresee dry air and shear hindering 97L, especially by the weekend. May see a weak TS to form out of this at best. I'll eat crow later if this materializes into something more signifcant, but I am one who is not counting on 97L being a potent system.

floridasun78 · #69 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:35 pm

ok we go again season over post it not over let see what see from now to nov 30

#70 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:44 pm

floridasun78 wrote:ok we go again season over post it not over let see what see from now to nov 30

I never once stated in any of my posts that the season is over. I simply said that I am going with the overall trend of the 2013 tropical season with 97L. The trend is and continues to be that dry air and shear have seriously crippled or destroyed waves and tropical cyclones. Therefore, I don't see any thing right now to lead me to believe that this trend is going to abate with 97L.

tropicwatch · #71 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:53 pm

The area it is currently in, the upper level environment is not terribly hostile. We will have to see if a convection buildup occurs.

caneman · #72 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:56 pm

northjaxpro wrote:The same old theme for 2013 continues for this invest. I just don't see this ramping up and as others have pointed out in a few posts previously on this thread, the prognosis down the road is not looking good. Plenty of dry air awaits 97L as the system approaches the GOM late this week.

I may be wrong, but I am going with the trend of 2013 with this system. This will be a potential heavy raimmaker for Cuba and the Florida peninsula, but I foresee dry air and shear hindering 97L, especially by the weekend. May see a weak TS to form out of this at best. I'll eat crow later if this materializes into something more signifcant, but I am one who is not counting on 97L being a potent system.

Hate to disagree but looking much better on Satellite today. Also has a nice envelop of moisture with it. If it gets going soon, I think it has a shot. Prolly not much more than a 60 - 70 mph TS though.

floridasun78 · #73 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 1:56 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:ok we go again season over post it not over let see what see from now to nov 30

I never once stated in any of my posts that the season is over. I simply said that I am going with the overall trend of the 2013 tropical season with 97L. The trend is and continues to be that dry air and shear have seriously crippled or destroyed waves and tropical cyclones. Therefore, I don't see any thing right now to lead me to believe that this trend is going to abate with 97L.

i not say you i say i seen alot season over post i we need wait until nov 30

stormlover2013 · #74 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 2:07 pm

doesn't matter just going to be a rain maker

TJRE · #75 Postby **TJRE** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:04 pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/rmtc.asp#Sector%204

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

TAFB pulls it off the board at 72HRS

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

#76 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:08 pm

Development chances diminishing. TPW loop indicates the previously well-defined moisture circulation is elongating and dissipating.

#77 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:Development chances diminishing. TPW loop indicates the previously well-defined moisture circulation is elongating and dissipating.

miami nws certainly doesnt thinks this system is going to do much at least for our area

HurricaneTracker2031 · #78 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:35 pm

Convection is building but it has little time IMO

HURRICANELONNY · #79 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:36 pm

Yep. According to Miami. Not a drop a rain from this invest:

For the end of the week through the weekend, have cut probability of precipitation in half
as models are in good agreement with some tropical moisture
pulling well to the west of South Florida. There will still be a
chance of afternoon convection, but, we ME even see the early to
middle week pattern persist through Sunday.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... GLhrcfV.99

floridasun78 · #80 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Sep 30, 2013 3:52 pm

when will nhc drop invest?

ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 10% / 30%

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