ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection east of the center is starting to wane. Cloud tops are warming. Recon isn't finding any TS winds. Time to downgrade...

I don't know about you but I still see being convection with a new burst right under the CoC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

Also, recon just got into Karen. Give them time to look around.

[tolakram]

So we are at the point where the GFS loses the low, then regains it and shoots it east. I wonder if that's a result of an easterly LLC reformation?

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

[Aric Dunn]

So we are at the point where the GFS loses the low, then regains it and shoots it east. I wonder if that's a result of an easterly LLC reformation?

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

possible.. look at the latest 12z the ukmet doing the same as GFS... and most of the ensemble member too

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xweb%20weather/hurricane%20model%20plots

[Aric Dunn]

So we are at the point where the GFS loses the low, then regains it and shoots it east. I wonder if that's a result of an easterly LLC reformation?

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18

possible.. look at the latest 12z the ukmet doing the same as GFS... and most of the ensemble member too

http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots

very odd and even looks to be better defined than the other (other meaning the other vort not the actually center.).. I am now cant 2 vorts sse.. the farthest recon flying by can you can see the wind field...

if the llc collapses either of these could take over.. the circle not just an illusion recon data its quite noticeable..

you can clearly see it
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[CrazyC83]

Seems a new LLC may be developing at 26.5N 90.0W or so, there was a wind shift there and a pressure drop. Looks like the old LLC is dissipating.

[SeGaBob]

Seems a new LLC may be developing at 26.5N 90.0W or so, there was a wind shift there and a pressure drop. Looks like the old LLC is dissipating.

So if this is true will the NHC stop advisories or continue them in hopes of this possible new center?

[CrazyC83]

Seems a new LLC may be developing at 26.5N 90.0W or so, there was a wind shift there and a pressure drop. Looks like the old LLC is dissipating.

So if this is true will the NHC stop advisories or continue them in hopes of this possible new center?

Probably continue them at least for now. If it does develop, it would have a dramatic change on the track forecast.

[SouthernMet]

Karen finally trying to build convection around the Coc...

[ravyrn]

Per Aric and CrazyC:



If the center relocates, that's 111 miles SE of the current center.

[pgoss11]

Per Aric and CrazyC:

Is that a possible relocated COC?

[Aric Dunn]

hard to say ...

[Aric Dunn]

The euro now inline with gfs,ukmet.. moving due east...

[robbielyn]

wouldnt that be another antipolar center like yesterday which collapsed?

[pgoss11]

[quote="Aric Dunn"]The euro now inline with gfs,ukmet.. moving due east...[/quote
So that would keep Karen over water a litte longer? Not sure it matters with the conditions there.. just reaching for any possible hope..lol

[jlauderdal]

Seems a new LLC may be developing at 26.5N 90.0W or so, there was a wind shift there and a pressure drop. Looks like the old LLC is dissipating.

So if this is true will the NHC stop advisories or continue them in hopes of this possible new center?

omg if it goes due east it will hit sofla...

[Aric Dunn]

The euro now inline with gfs,ukmet.. moving due east...[/quote
So that would keep Karen over water a litte longer? Not sure it matters with the conditions there.. just reaching for any possible hope..lol

yeah but all keep it weak.. though hard to say what happens when it begins to move with the shear.

[jlauderdal]

Convection east of the center is starting to wane. Cloud tops are warming. Recon isn't finding any TS winds. Time to downgrade...

dusting off bones for tomorrow?

[Aric Dunn]

Oh and who wants to start the thread in talking tropics about the possible east coast development from the merging of remnants of karen and the system east of bahamas.. more models are on board with some sort of large mess..

[pgoss11]

Oh and who wants to start the thread in talking tropics about the possible east coast development from the merging of remnants of karen and the system east of bahamas.. more models are on board with some sort of large mess..

I saw that in some of the models.. not fair those Northerners getting more action than us the last few years.

[HurriGuy]

Recon found pressure of 1004....thats 5 mb lower