ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

First recon mission on Tuesday afternoon. (If needed)


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 29 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-120

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 20N AND 81W FOR 01/1800Z, AND BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
02/1200Z IF SYSTEM IS A THREAT.

the squadron must have a whole bunch of budget available based on the inactivity

[chargurl]

This is a horrible scenario for SWFL, we are already at or near record floods here. Any more rain and alot of people gonne be seriously flooded out of their homes.

[Hurricaneman]

This is a horrible scenario for SWFL, we are already at or near record floods here. Any more rain and alot of people gonne be seriously flooded out of their homes.

thats probably going to be the big issue especially if its as slow moving as modeled

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Discussion by Dr Jeff Masters.

A low pressure system (Invest 97L) over the Central Caribbean is generating heavy rains from Haiti to Panama, and is moving northwest at about 7 mph. Satellite loops show 97L has a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms and a broad area of spin. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F), and wind shear is a high 20 knots.

Forecast for 97L

Marginally favorable conditions for development are expected for the next five days, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast, with moderate levels of wind shear (10 - 20 knots), but an atmosphere that will grow drier as 97L approaches the Northwest Caribbean and Southeast Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable computer forecast models develop 97L into a tropical depression over the next five days. These models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) predict a northwesterly track for 97L over the next three days, followed by a more northerly track over Western Cuba and just west of the Florida Keys late in the week. On this path, 97L will bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti on Sunday and Monday, to the Cayman Islands and Central and Eastern Cuba on Monday and Tuesday, to Western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday, and to South Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 20%, and 5-day odds of 40%.

[floridasun78]

Discussion by Dr Jeff Masters.

A low pressure system (Invest 97L) over the Central Caribbean is generating heavy rains from Haiti to Panama, and is moving northwest at about 7 mph. Satellite loops show 97L has a modest area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms and a broad area of spin. Dry air covers the Northwest Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. Ocean temperatures are a very warm 29°C (84°F), and wind shear is a high 20 knots.

Forecast for 97L

Marginally favorable conditions for development are expected for the next five days, according to the latest SHIPS model forecast, with moderate levels of wind shear (10 - 20 knots), but an atmosphere that will grow drier as 97L approaches the Northwest Caribbean and Southeast Gulf of Mexico. None of the reliable computer forecast models develop 97L into a tropical depression over the next five days. These models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET) predict a northwesterly track for 97L over the next three days, followed by a more northerly track over Western Cuba and just west of the Florida Keys late in the week. On this path, 97L will bring heavy rains of 2 - 4" to Jamaica and Southwest Haiti on Sunday and Monday, to the Cayman Islands and Central and Eastern Cuba on Monday and Tuesday, to Western Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday, and to South Florida on Wednesday and Thursday. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day odds of development of 20%, and 5-day odds of 40%.

master this goi ng be other invest that come and go

[blp]

what do lastest model run show?

All models have either dropped it or are much weaker. Looks like another 2013 dud. I thought we had something but I should have known better this year.

[WPBWeather]

what do lastest model run show?

All models have either dropped it or are much weaker. Looks like another 2013 dud. I thought we had something but I should have known better this year.

Not really. This is something to watch for the next few days.

[blp]

what do lastest model run show?

All models have either dropped it or are much weaker. Looks like another 2013 dud. I thought we had something but I should have known better this year.

Not really. This is something to watch for the next few days.

Based on what? The models have backed off from 24hrs ago and there is no question about that. You may be referring to the never say never attitude and that development may happen in spite of what the models show, but 2013 has proven to not be one of those type of years, so chances are slim.

[cycloneye]

Nothing new.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND HAITI TODAY AND MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY TUESDAY.

[floridasun78]

i see alot you think today nov 30 is not

[fci]

Not really. This is something to watch for the next few days.

Based on what? The models have backed off from 24hrs ago and there is no question about that. You may be referring to the never say never attitude and that development may happen in spite of what the models show, but 2013 has proven to not be one of those type of years, so chances are slim.[/quote]

I'm one of the last people to talk about watching and one who hypes.
I'm not hyping here however this time of year and where this is located catches my attention much more than most in the Tropical Atlantic. From now until about a month from now are our most vulnerable times in Florida.

[psyclone]

i see alot you think today nov 30 is not

It's not November 30 and it's too soon to write the obit on the season (despite some posts to the contrary) but there's also nothing wrong with a standoff-ish attitude at this point. the season has disappointed with remarkable consistency (from a development standpoint) thus far and this system is already showing signs of trending in that direction...can you blame anyone for adopting a "show us the money" attitude at this juncture? I certainly can't and I share those sentiments. best to bet against anything of consequence unless there is compelling evidence to the contrary and at this point there simply isn't.

[Ntxw]

I have to agree with the assessment that this won't have a good future down the road. If it wanted to develop (as with most systems this year) it has to do it quickly and be decent storm, then get picked up in the westerlies to be of a significant wind impact to the Florida peninsula. However like everything thing else it is taking too long to get organized and eventually it will get strung out and pulled northeast in a mess due to the typical gulf conditions and provide rain to areas likely not wanting it. 2013 has been harsh, if something can go wrong for a system...it will. It needs to consolidate faster and really crank to have a good chance.

[Dean4Storms]

Models seem to write off development with shear and dry air, still needs to be watched as they can and are sometimes wrong.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 97, 2013092918, , BEST, 0, 140N, 773W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

[WPBWeather]

I have to agree with the assessment that this won't have a good future down the road. If it wanted to develop (as with most systems this year) it has to do it quickly and be decent storm, then get picked up in the westerlies to be of a significant wind impact to the Florida peninsula. However like everything thing else it is taking too long to get organized and eventually it will get strung out and pulled northeast in a mess due to the typical gulf conditions and provide rain to areas likely not wanting it. 2013 has been harsh, if something can go wrong for a system...it will. It needs to consolidate faster and really crank to have a good chance.

[WPBWeather]

Models seem to write off development with shear and dry air, still needs to be watched as they can and are sometimes wrong.

I believe this is the best approach to take. Too many people here use one low resolution model run to make calls. Late November will tell the tale, 2013 notwithstanding.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Analysis on 97L: http://goo.gl/nRpJm3

Take A look.

Synopsis
97L a potential troublemaker for Cuba, Cayman Islands, Jamaica, South Florida this week.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

NWS MIAMI mentions 97L in Hazardous Weather Outlook


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS HAS A CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.

THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH A HIGHER RISK POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY INTO THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15
MPH.

[Sanibel]

The center hasn't worked its way out yet.