ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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HurriGuy
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1461 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:32 pm

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1462 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:33 pm

18z Best Track down to Tropical Depression.

AL, 12, 2013100518, , BEST, 0, 279N, 918W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M
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#1463 Postby robbielyn » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:36 pm

big rotation at 28N 88w area with small "eye" could be taking over
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1464 Postby psyclone » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:39 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track down to Tropical Depression.

AL, 12, 2013100518, , BEST, 0, 279N, 918W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M

way past time to yank the cord.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1465 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track down to Tropical Depression.

AL, 12, 2013100518, , BEST, 0, 279N, 918W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M


ATCF updated and is back to TS.

AL, 12, 2013100518, , BEST, 0, 279N, 918W, 35, 1007, TS
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1466 Postby 'CaneFreak » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:42 pm

...until ATCF comes back and says TS... :lol: :lol: :lol:

psyclone wrote:
cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track down to Tropical Depression.

AL, 12, 2013100518, , BEST, 0, 279N, 918W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 90, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, M

way past time to yank the cord.
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Re:

#1467 Postby Airboy » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:43 pm

HurriGuy wrote:Recon found pressure of 1004....thats 5 mb lower



Looks like it broke down and jumped a bit east near the convection
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1468 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:44 pm

I still think it is bones, we've had enough of it this year. It would all of a sudden look better on satellite, and people would say that it could be restrengthening or becoming better organised, only to find out that it only looks good on satellite, but in reality, the structure is a mess. I'm not saying this WILL be the case for Karen, but this has happened for many storms this season, so unless something really changes with this system, and not only looks to be changing, then I will believe it. Karen's weakening is beyond excellent news for the people in its path, and I am happy for them.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1469 Postby MGC » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:50 pm

This looks likes yesterday all over again, stall and some hanky-pankyoff to the SE.....Krazy Karen......MGC
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#1470 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:50 pm

Looks to me like the circulation is falling apart. It's do or die time regarding a CoC reformation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re:

#1471 Postby Airboy » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:54 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Looks to me like the circulation is falling apart. It's do or die time regarding a CoC reformation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif


I think the center relocated a bit too the east now have convection over it, the NW "tip" of the blob
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#1472 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:01 pm

Definitely another LL circulation down near 89W 26.5N Could not tell its motion as the higher cirrus drifted over it.
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#1473 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:02 pm

You need the NASA higher resolution to see it plainly.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1474 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:02 pm

Karen is giving us some nice tropical showers this afternoon. Quite an interesting visible loop with the cold front marching in from Texas. She's just waiting to get ejected to the East and I'm not complaining...low's in the mid 50's tomorrow night!
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1475 Postby ROCK » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:03 pm

I dont see squat in the blob to the ESE... :D .I see a semi naked swirl still very much alive and not moving very much...far cry from last night when it was completely naked. Obs barely support a TS and that is being generous. With the angle of the front moving thru TX this mostly likely landfall in LA then over towards AL....pretty much as the NHC has it....though all the weather (whats left of it) will be to the east of the center.....just about time to kiss Karen goodbye. She never really had a fair shake at a hurricane status. If only she had come in August.... :D
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#1476 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:08 pm

I think a new center is taking form down there, it sure looks suspicious in high resolution.
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Re: Re:

#1477 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
SeGaBob wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Seems a new LLC may be developing at 26.5N 90.0W or so, there was a wind shift there and a pressure drop. Looks like the old LLC is dissipating.


So if this is true will the NHC stop advisories or continue them in hopes of this possible new center?


Probably continue them at least for now. If it does develop, it would have a dramatic change on the track forecast.


Thanks. :)
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1478 Postby ravyrn » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:27 pm

Can someone post the latest VDM in the recon thread. I don't know where to get the text in the format you guys post it in. Also a link to that text data would be nice so I know where to pull it from in the future. The only spot I know to get vdm data atm is from the google earth plugin which is a diff format.

EDIT: Nevermind, I found it here.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1479 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:33 pm

ravyrn wrote:Can someone post the latest VDM in the recon thread. I don't know where to get the text in the format you guys post it in. Also a link to that text data would be nice so I know where to pull it from in the future. The only spot I know to get vdm data atm is from the google earth plugin which is a diff format.


From here

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml

Or from here

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
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#1480 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:35 pm

karen does not want to die.... convection covering the center again..
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