ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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LarryWx
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Re:

#1481 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:karen does not want to die.... convection covering the center again..


The old center? Is there a new center taking over to the se? I'm honestly very confused. ;)
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#1482 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:42 pm

NHC does not note the possible developing LLC to the SE in the 5pm advisory... :(
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#1483 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:47 pm

SeGaBob wrote:NHC does not note the possible developing LLC to the SE in the 5pm advisory... :(


I agree with them not to note it. The entire storm will likely just dissipate soon anyway.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1484 Postby ravyrn » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:52 pm

Image
Where do you guys think a possible new circulation is forming? Seems like the burst of convection near the current llc might pull the llc into it?

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#1485 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:59 pm

We'll see what happens. I agree the old LLC is probably no longer a center, but with the hints of a new LLC it is definitely too early to pull the plug.

My best guess for a developing LLC is at 26.7N 90.5W.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1486 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:03 pm

Is there really a new llc competing to take over? Any actual evidence from nhc or elsewhere? Is this something to take seriously or not? I'm not sure what to believe.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1487 Postby tailgater » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:13 pm

I've been a S2K member a while but I sure feel dumb. Because if I were to look at this set up w/o the NHC telling me it's going east, I would be telling everyone, she's gonna race off to the NNE with a approaching front to the NW and a blocking ridge over the SE coast. :double:
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1488 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:15 pm

tailgater wrote:I've been a S2K member a while but I sure feel dumb. Because if I were to look at this set up w/o the NHC telling me it's going east, I would be telling everyone, she's gonna race off to the NNE with a approaching front to the NW and a blocking ridge over the SE coast. :double:


She will be hooking up with the front probably by this time tomorrow that is why the cone hooks so far to the NE along the coast. That front is hauling, so relocate or not she's going to become frontal soon either way.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1489 Postby MGC » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:29 pm

NHC has shifted the track south! North than south, east then west....Krazy Karen giving NHC fits. glad this is just a weak TS and not a cane....beautiful day here on the Coast......MGC
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#1490 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:40 pm

Wind shift found south of the previous positions with about 1007.5mb extrap pressure on latest pass.
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#1491 Postby ninel conde » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:46 pm

glad to see the east shift. no rain needed here. could reform late in the week off hatteras.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1492 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:53 pm

Center is opening up and winds are down 5-10 kts from this morning. Recon could only find a couple 35kt winds in heavy rain, where SFMR readings are highly suspect. This is no TS. NHC is being overly cautious in case it does develop TS winds before it moves near the coast. I guess that's their responsibility - to keep the public from relaxing and taking any storm lightly. It's not regenerating with the cold front rapidly approaching tonight.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1493 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:54 pm

tailgater wrote:I've been a S2K member a while but I sure feel dumb. Because if I were to look at this set up w/o the NHC telling me it's going east, I would be telling everyone, she's gonna race off to the NNE with a approaching front to the NW and a blocking ridge over the SE coast. :double:

models, nhc, s2k members all had big trouble this year with storms...anything could happen now through the end of november the way this has went
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1494 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:57 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
tailgater wrote:I've been a S2K member a while but I sure feel dumb. Because if I were to look at this set up w/o the NHC telling me it's going east, I would be telling everyone, she's gonna race off to the NNE with a approaching front to the NW and a blocking ridge over the SE coast. :double:

models, nhc, s2k members all had big trouble this year with storms...anything could happen now through the end of november the way this has went


as far as the forecasting goes, it seems a lot of the issues seem to relate to the "upgrades" that the models underwent, after which they just began forecasting phantom storms left and right and overdeveloping everything.

edit: center did indeed seem to reform to the south, and with slightly lower pressures, and (while I may be imagining things) the shear may be relaxing ever so slightly as I see a thin stream of high clouds going northwest around the northern convection (though if it does relax, it is yet to be seen if it is too little too late.)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/flash-wv-long.html
Last edited by Hammy on Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1495 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:01 pm

It may merge with the front tomorrow near the MS Delta and slip east merged with the front. Definitely not re-developing.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1496 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:05 pm

Here's a sat pic with surface obs. Lots of 10 and 20 kt winds. A few 25kts near the Delta but they're not blowing toward Karen, they're blowing in toward the approaching front.
Image
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#1497 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:15 pm

How possible is it that the approaching front is contributing to the slight drop in pressure on the last VDM?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1498 Postby ROCK » Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:30 pm

might have some time for the winds to pick up with the pressure fall but I got to think its due to the approaching front...JMO
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Re:

#1499 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:54 pm

Hammy wrote:How possible is it that the approaching front is contributing to the slight drop in pressure on the last VDM?


Probably why it is happening.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1500 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:16 pm

Hammy wrote:as far as the forecasting goes, it seems a lot of the issues seem to relate to the "upgrades" that the models underwent, after which they just began forecasting phantom storms left and right and overdeveloping everything.



Just a quick note to keep the amateurs here from getting misled. And I know you really know your stuff Hammy so this is just my opinion rather than a retort :)
By far not all of us see it that way. I think, and a lot of the NHC members think, that the models have done quite well considering the challenges of this season. Many times they indeed forecast a TC to start developing (phantom storm?) but quickly dropped it. That's not really a phantom storm, that's just the models seeing a possibility that most of us also saw. They often dropped it while a lot of us were still insisting it would hang on and develop. Also I didn't see them overdeveloping storms that much at all. Once again, on the (not often) occasions when they forecast a TD or TS to strengthen a lot but it didn't, they usually backed off way before we here or even the NHC consensus did. If I were to rate them compared to before the upgrades I'd say so far it's a notable improvement. The GFS has definitely stepped up to the level of the Euro on TC forecasting now. It beat the Euro on a few occasions this season but a lot of people don't want to admit that. Not sure why - sticking with the old winner? Just my 2 cents.
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