ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1521 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:27 am

It does look like to me that the original LLC of Karen is pretty much open/dead. However, I am slightly curious about whether or not there could be a new circulation (maybe non-Karen) about due south of the MS/AL border. The thunderstorms seem to have persisted in a concentrated somewhat circular area for several hours as it moves ENE:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

With no vis, it is quite difficult to tell at night. This is probably a longshot, but I thought it to be well worth mentioning after hearing about that possible new LLC last evening.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1522 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 06, 2013 3:51 am

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1965/DEBBIE/track.gif

Interesting track comparison, looks like pretty much the same thing happened with this one.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1523 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:06 am

Karen is gone. There's no more LLC. I can see a weak trof axis just ahead of the cold front. Time for final advisory:

Image
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1524 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:37 am

In a year like 2013 you can almost expect this to happen with all storms. Strengthening would be forecast, but the storm would fail to do so, because wind shear suddenly gets more intense.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#1525 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:27 am

We can stamp a big fat 2013 on this one. A lot of speculation but in the end once again more bark than bite.

Btw wxman57, maybe this is for another thread in talkin tropics but I do notice a lot of westerlies (lots and lots of shear) in the gulf throughout the GFS (and subsequently other guidance as well) with this front/trough being the starting catalyst. Do you think it's about time bones considers a press conference for the GOM? Maybe not SFL but the meat of the gulf doesn't look friendly one bit.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1526 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:36 am

And the final epilog arrives.

...KAREN DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 89.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1527 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:40 am

So it just went died in the middle of the Gulf, what a shame for a tropical cyclone
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1528 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:57 am

supercane4867 wrote:So it just went died in the middle of the Gulf, what a shame for a tropical cyclone


It's a shame for 2013, what was forecasted in May to be a season with 3-5 major hurricanes. We can hardly even have a hurricane. Glad for those in Karen's path though.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1529 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:17 am

In my opinion, unless a MAJOR pattern change occurs, there is likely not going to be anything stronger than sheared and moisture-deprived tropical storms or marginal hurricanes traversing the basin. The pattern has been there since day one, and continues to persist. We've said the identical words since then: "The season is going to get a lot more active" "Wait another 2 weeks" "August will for sure feature more activity" "The next week should be very interesting". However, it's the same pattern of inactivity, there have been only two hurricanes which were both weak 85 mph storms. Obviously, the season likely will not be able to live up to its expectation or even come close to the 3-5 major hurricanes, unless as I said, some major change occurs. Dry air to the east, wind shear to the west, too warm at 10,000 feet, there aren't many disturbances available, and the list continues. Personally, despite the relatively early time, I'm just about ready to surrender on this year.

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#1530 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:33 am

So is the remaining moisture still supposed to get drawn into the SE US with the front?
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#1531 Postby robbielyn » Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:47 am

yes you can see the cold front right on the broad low remnants of karen's heels. it will overtake it and absorb it.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1532 Postby sunnyday » Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:44 am

This "season" is kind of scary, actually. Think about it. It's like something is major wrong with the weather. All over the country are extremes of weather, and then there is virtually no hurricane season. 8-) 8-)
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1533 Postby ronjon » Sun Oct 06, 2013 12:22 pm

Yes I see some of our posters moaning about an inactive season. Well I say it's great. We don't need anymore destructive major canes tearing up the US. But let's keep everything in perspective, it's an inactive year. Next year will be different as weather patterns are never static.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1534 Postby HouTXmetro » Sun Oct 06, 2013 12:33 pm

But what's up with all these decapitated storms? It seems like that is the new normal. Is there any evidence that warming atmosphere contributes to that type of wind shear?
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1535 Postby Hammy » Sun Oct 06, 2013 1:32 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:But what's up with all these decapitated storms? It seems like that is the new normal. Is there any evidence that warming atmosphere contributes to that type of wind shear?


Throwing my two cents in, though I could be wrong. I read somewhere that warmer than normal waters in the far north Atlantic may have contributed to the increased shear (which happened in 2007 as well), but 2007 was more charged from having come off of an El Nino the previous year.
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#1536 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Oct 06, 2013 3:24 pm

Plenty of rain here in the Pensacola area...I for one am really glad its only the rain we have to deal with and not the wind.
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#1537 Postby Ntxw » Sun Oct 06, 2013 3:47 pm

Not to derail this thread but since there isn't much going on, there's a beautiful, picturesque typhoon over in the WPAC. Should check it out!

As for Karen she's nothing more than a weak frontal low now.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1538 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:09 pm

We had blustery breezes, overcast and rain just like you would expect from a remnant passing over you.
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Re: ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

#1539 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:34 pm

The remnant circulation of Karen was kind of rejuvenated today, and it seems to be near Cross City/Cedar Key at the moment. We had consistent 25 MPH winds today in the Tampa Bay area, and numerous quick-moving squalls.

You can still see the circulation here:

Image
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#1540 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:37 pm

If the new storm off the east coast becomes (sub)tropical, is it Karen or Lorenzo?
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