WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#101 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:56 am

It went right over the top of Yoron Island with the full center of the eye calm etc. Should be some stories from there.
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#102 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:25 am

down to 120 knots..

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL
SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 20-
NM EYE. HOWEVER, THE EIR DOES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEGUN TO SHALLOW, MOST LIKELY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS TY 23W
TRACKED NEAR OKINAWA, JAPAN AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOLING SSTS. ADDITIONALLY, RADIAL
VENTING HAS WANED THOUGH THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
THE WESTERLIES HAS MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND REFLECTS THE CURRENT SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO CREST THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT) VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON DANAS IS FORECAST TO CREST THE STR AXIS JUST PRIOR TO
TAU 12. TY 23W WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND TURN NORTHEAST WHILE
EXPERIENCING GRADUALLY INCREASING VWS, COINCIDENT WITH THE POLEWARD
RECURVE MOTION, AS WELL AS INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER
TAU 12, TY 23W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SASEBO, JAPAN,
AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE NOW STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON A EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY, CROSSING
THE SEA OF JAPAN AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU BEFORE EMERGING BACK
OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INCREASING VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE SYSTEMS DETERIORATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT
VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. ECMWF HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE THE
REST OF THE CONW MEMBERS HAVE MAINTAINED A TIGHT GROUPING. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW -
AND BIASED TOWARDS ECMWF - WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN
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#103 Postby Dave C » Mon Oct 07, 2013 11:59 am

I checked yoron island on google maps it's about 3 miles across and has an airport on the west end. Would be nice to see a pressure report 8-)
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#104 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:22 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:So I just checked a page related to Okinawa on Facebook and majority of the posters was saying like they've been waiting for this storm for so long and that they are ready for it. :lol: looks like this will be the first direct landfall of a typhoon in the island since the streak of typhoons that hit them last year.


I've never heard of this before. They've been waiting for it? Well I can assure them that if they wanted a strong typhoon, their request was granted, since this is a Category 4! :37:



I will say this being stationed there from 2009-2012..Those buildings are very sturdy and won't budge...We had wind gust up to 133 mph During Typhoon Songda and the damage was minimal compared to if it were to hit the states. I mean there was a lot of broken glass and damaged cars but as building structures go they did fine nothing to worry about. I talked to a friend there on the southern part of the Island they didn't even go into TCCOR-1E (Winds of 50 knots are greater) She said the winds weren't bad at all. I cant speak for the northern half but I could tell you that up there probably (by the bases) wasn't that bad because if one base feels it they all go in the typhoon condition so not one base had over 50 knot (58 mph) winds. If they did well they didn't up the typhoon readiness like they do. AND yes as sad as it is people were disappointed with this because the winds were not there it was just like a windy day. Like I said though I can't guarantee that the winds were under 50 knots I can tell you I believe they weren't because they never went to TCOOR 1E.
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#105 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 2:59 pm

From Stars and Stripes....

Danas rumbled 54 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at 3:45 p.m. Monday. Strongest sustained winds on Kadena were 43 mph and highest gusts were 49 mph. Further north, things were far worse; 55-mph sustained winds and 104-mph gusts felt from Nago up to Oku.
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#106 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:50 am

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 34.5N 129.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 129.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.3N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 40.0N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 42.5N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 130.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM NORTH OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TS 23W
HAS ACCELERATED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RADAR
IMAGERY FROM KYUSHU INDICATES THE PASSAGE OF THE LLCC OVER TSUSHIMA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED, UNFAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND DRY COOL AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE HAVE RAPIDLY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM. DECREASING SST
VALUES (22 TO 23 CELSIUS) AND VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40
PLUS KNOTS) WILL LEAD TO A COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
12. BASED ON THE RECENT ACCELERATION OF THE LLCC AND INCREASINGLY
HARSH ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 081200Z IS 40 FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#107 Postby iCyclone » Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:34 am

Hi, folks!

James Reynolds, Mark Thomas, and I (Josh Morgerman) chased Typhoon DANAS on the N tip of Okinawa Island yesterday.

Attached is my pressure trace from DANAS’s passage near our location. While the typhoon’s track stayed just offshore of the main island, the edge of the eye brushed it. We were in the small town of Uko, very close to the shoreline (26.841N 128.289E). Our lowest pressure, 950.6 mb, occurred at 4:14 pm JST, very near the time of a noticeable calming and a change in the wind direction as we clipped the edge of the eye (4:04 pm). This calming came after a short period of violent whiteout conditions, which we assume was the inner eyewall. The typhoon was severe (Cat 4), small, and fast-moving, so a big drop of ~40 mb happened in less than two and a half hours. I calibrated my barometer (a Kestrel 4500) using a reference altitude of 10 ft, which I estimated from viewing the nearby beach.

Here’s my pressure trace:

Image

As we were on the very edge of the eye, I assume the central pressure was quite a bit lower. Yoron-jima—a tiny island right in the center’s path—probably saw a spectacular show with that stadium eye.

And here’s a rough cut of James Reynolds’ video from the chase:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mst13yIy38[/youtube]

P.S. DANAS was actually our second chase in two days. On Saturday and Sunday, we were on Miyako-jima, chasing Typhoon FITOW, a large Cat 2. We also managed to just clip the eye of that one. It was pretty exciting to penetrate the inner cores of Cat-2 and Cat-4 typhoons within less than 48 hours!

Here’s James Reynolds' footage from that chase:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1VoevPFdfU[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#108 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:33 pm

iCyclone wrote:Hi, folks!

James Reynolds, Mark Thomas, and I (Josh Morgerman) chased Typhoon DANAS on the N tip of Okinawa Island yesterday.

Attached is my pressure trace from DANAS’s passage near our location. While the typhoon’s track stayed just offshore of the main island, the edge of the eye brushed it. We were in the small town of Uko, very close to the shoreline (26.841N 128.289E). Our lowest pressure, 950.6 mb, occurred at 4:14 pm JST, very near the time of a noticeable calming and a change in the wind direction as we clipped the edge of the eye (4:04 pm). This calming came after a short period of violent whiteout conditions, which we assume was the inner eyewall. The typhoon was severe (Cat 4), small, and fast-moving, so a big drop of ~40 mb happened in less than two and a half hours. I calibrated my barometer (a Kestrel 4500) using a reference altitude of 10 ft, which I estimated from viewing the nearby beach.

Here’s my pressure trace:

Image

As we were on the very edge of the eye, I assume the central pressure was quite a bit lower. Yoron-jima—a tiny island right in the center’s path—probably saw a spectacular show with that stadium eye.

And here’s a rough cut of James Reynolds’ video from the chase:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Mst13yIy38[/youtube]

P.S. DANAS was actually our second chase in two days. On Saturday and Sunday, we were on Miyako-jima, chasing Typhoon FITOW, a large Cat 2. We also managed to just clip the eye of that one. It was pretty exciting to penetrate the inner cores of Cat-2 and Cat-4 typhoons within less than 48 hours!

Here’s James Reynolds' footage from that chase:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K1VoevPFdfU[/youtube]


Welcome! I hope you enjoy your stay here. :)
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#109 Postby iCyclone » Wed Oct 09, 2013 12:21 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Welcome! I hope you enjoy your stay here. :)


Hey, thanks, hurricane! :)
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#110 Postby stormkite » Wed Oct 09, 2013 12:44 am

LOW
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 9 October 2013
ZCZC 331
WTPQ21 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPING LOW FORMER TS 1324 DANAS (1324)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 38N 135E
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST =
NNNN



<Analyses at 09/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
LOW
Center position N38°00'(38.0°)
E135°00'(135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 55km/h(30kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

#111 Postby mrbagyo » Wed Oct 09, 2013 6:00 am

any visible loop?
I missed monitoring Danas at its peak...
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

#112 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Oct 09, 2013 10:34 am

mrbagyo wrote:any visible loop?
I missed monitoring Danas at its peak...

Here's a satellite animation.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7hgfB-jhCc[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

#113 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 11, 2013 11:33 am

jaguarjace wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:any visible loop?
I missed monitoring Danas at its peak...

Here's a satellite animation.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7hgfB-jhCc[/youtube]

thanks.
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