WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 04, 2013 10:59 pm

786
WTPQ31 PGUM 050347
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANAS (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232013
200 PM CHST SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM DANAS CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.5N 141.7E

ABOUT 260 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 270 MILES WEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 280 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 355 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W-NW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANAS WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.7
EAST.

TROPICAL STORM DANAS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. DANAS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
THEN TURN NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM DANAS IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND COULD BECOME A TYPHOON ON SUNDAY MORNING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.

$$

CHAN
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:04 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE SYSTEM
HAS INTENSIFIED ABOUT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND, AS
DEPICTED IN A 042207Z SSMIS IMAGE, HAS DEVELOPED TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WHICH IS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER RANGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WHICH TOP OUT AT 55
KNOTS. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 50 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BROAD,
DEEPENING TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR.
FAVORABLE SST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT DIVERGES
NEAR THE RE-CURVE POINT (JUST SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA). ALL DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE A RE-CURVE SCENARIO BUT DIFFER ON THE THE TIMING OF
THE RE-CURVE. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. TS 23W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS NEAR OKINAWA; HOWEVER,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE
NORTHWARD AFTER PASSING OKINAWA AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED COMPLETE ETT AS IT ACCELERATES AND
TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA OF JAPAN. TS 23W SHOULD
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
INTERACTION WITH LAND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE RE-CURVE POINT,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#23 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:53 am

Fitow and Danas:
Image
This is not an official product of SSD. I created this RGB loop using imagery from South Korea's COMS Satellite.
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#24 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:25 am

Wow! We have Typhoon Danas per the 12z Best Track. That was fast.

23W DANAS 131005 1200 19.5N 139.5E WPAC 65 974
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#25 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Oct 05, 2013 9:58 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:Wow! We have Typhoon Danas per the 12z Best Track. That was fast.

23W DANAS 131005 1200 19.5N 139.5E WPAC 65 974


Yep, The JMA has upgraded Danas to A Severe Tropical Storm and The JTWC Has gone striaht to a Typhoon.

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 770 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE.
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND, AS
DEPICTED IN A 051101Z SSMIS IMAGE, HAS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH AN ESTABLISHED CDO
FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT
MOTION BASED ON THE IR LOOP AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE BROAD, DEEPENING TUTT TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, A
THIN OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF TY 22W CAN BE
SEEN BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF TY 23W. TY
23W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS A 10 KNOT INCREASE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO STAYED
CONSISTENT WITH THIS INCREASE AS THE FORECAST INTENSITIES FOR TAU
12, 24, AND 36 HAVE INCREASED BY 10 KNOTS.
B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR.
FAVORABLE SSTS AND OHC ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH IMPROVING UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER RAPID INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
36, BUT DIVERGES NEAR THE RE-CURVE POINT (TAU 48, JUST NORTHEAST OF
OKINAWA). ALL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A RE-CURVE SCENARIO, BUT
DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE RE-CURVE, THUS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 95
KNOTS JUST BEFORE OKINAWA; HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT INCREASED
INTERACTION OF THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS BETWEEN TY 22W AND TY 23W COULD
LEAD TO BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 23W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE NORTHWARD
AFTER PASSING OKINAWA AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AS IT ACCELERATES AND TRACKS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SEA OF JAPAN. TS 23W SHOULD WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS IN ADDITION TO INCREASED INTERACTION WITH
LAND. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE RE-CURVE POINT, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#26 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:42 am

twin typhoons :team:
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:45 am

675
WTPQ31 PGUM 051518
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON DANAS (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232013
200 AM CHST SUN OCT 6 2013

...TROPICAL STORM DANAS UPGRADED TO TYPHOON...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.8N 138.7E

ABOUT 460 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
ABOUT 480 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
ABOUT 495 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
ABOUT 565 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W-NW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON DANAS WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.7
EAST.

TYPHOON DANAS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH ACROSS THE
PHILIPPINE SEA. DANAS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED
WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON
DANAS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH MONDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM THIS MORNING.

$$

WILLIAMS
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 11:05 am

center smacked right in the middle of the circulation center...a sign of rapid intensification perhaps coming...

Image

impressive...

Image
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 2:47 pm

Advisory is now out and up to 70 knots (~80 mph).
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#30 Postby Extratropical94 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 3:34 pm

JMA followed suit and upgraded Danas to a typhoon.

WTPQ21 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1324 DANAS (1324) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 20.3N 138.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 23.6N 131.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 071800UTC 28.7N 127.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 16KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 081800UTC 34.6N 130.1E 250NM 70%
MOVE NNE 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 4:22 pm

A small eye is forming on infrared imagery. And just look at that amazing outflow to the south and east.

Image
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#32 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:10 pm

Best Track nearly a Category 2.

23W DANAS 131006 0000 21.2N 136.3E WPAC 80 963

From a minimal Category 1 typhoon (65 knots) to the upper edges of Category 1 status (80 knots) in only 12 hours. :double:
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#33 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 12:53 am

up to 80 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 564 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) ABOUT TO REVEAL AN
EYE FEATURE. THE CDO HAS DEEPENED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS AS EASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINED STEADY. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE ON A 052335Z TRMM PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGHER
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE DEVELOPING TREND. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP STR. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE
POLEWARD. CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IN ADDITION TO
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS
IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE COLD BAROCLINIC AIR MASS. THE SYSTEM WILL
BECOME A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY DANAS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS A STORM-FORCE BAROCLINIC LOW AND CROSS THE SEA OF
JAPAN AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO THE
PACIFIC OCEAN. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CAUSE ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH MINOR VARIATIONS ON THE RECURVE POINT. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST THAT IS LAID
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 24. //
NNNN
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#34 Postby stormkite » Sun Oct 06, 2013 1:30 am

Image




Impressive the Atlantic trackers be crying.
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#35 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Oct 06, 2013 4:35 am

CMA Radar, outer rain bands now moving on shore.

Image
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#36 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Oct 06, 2013 4:45 am

ooops wrong storm
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#37 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Sun Oct 06, 2013 6:47 am

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwmFg7Hs8wc[/youtube]
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#38 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:43 am

This is a very small but strong typhoon. It reminds me of the Category 3 and 4 ePac hurricanes like Emilia last year.
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#39 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:47 am

Best Track just 1 mph away from major typhoon status! :eek:

23W DANAS 131006 1200 22.7N 133.4E WPAC 95 952
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#40 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:09 am

Image

Image

WOW! talk about rapid intensification :eek:

2013OCT06 140100 6.2 936.7 119.8 6.2 6.3 6.4 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF 8.60 -69.65 EYE 25 IR 69.0 23.26 -132.77 COMBO MTSAT2 30.5

Current Intensity

Raw
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