WPAC: DANAS - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#81 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:03 pm

dexterlabio wrote:So I just checked a page related to Okinawa on Facebook and majority of the posters was saying like they've been waiting for this storm for so long and that they are ready for it. :lol: looks like this will be the first direct landfall of a typhoon in the island since the streak of typhoons that hit them last year.


I've never heard of this before. They've been waiting for it? Well I can assure them that if they wanted a strong typhoon, their request was granted, since this is a Category 4! :37:
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#82 Postby stormkite » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:21 pm

Y 1324 (DANAS)
Issued at 01:50 UTC, 7 October 2013

<Analyses at 07/01 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N25°25'(25.4°)
E129°55'(129.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Estimate for 07/02 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N25°35'(25.6°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°55'(27.9°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 08/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N30°40'(30.7°)
E128°00'(128.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 09/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°10'(35.2°)
E131°30'(131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)
Storm warning area ALL460km(250NM)

<Forecast for 10/00 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N39°10'(39.2°)
E139°35'(139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)


Unit:
1KT(knot) = 1.852 km/h = 0.5144 m/s
1NM(nautical mile) = 1.852 km
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#83 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:26 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 25.3N 130.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 130.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.0N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 30.9N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.9N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 40.7N 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 129.5E.
TYPHOON 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 22W (FITOW) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#84 Postby hurricanes1234 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:10 pm

Still very impressive with that annular structure holding up.
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#85 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:11 pm

Now a category 4 typhoon with sustained winds of 115 knots.
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#86 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:12 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (DANAS) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER DEEPENED, MAINTAINED A HIGHLY
SYMMETRICAL SIGNATURE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE FEEDER
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED 25-NM EYE. TY 23W SUSTAINED A
MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT THAT IS PROVIDING A HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RADIAL VENTING MECHANISM. ADDITIONALLY, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT EVEN AS THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED, A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE WESTERLIES HAS OPENED UP IN THE LAST SIX
HOURS. THE ROBUST ALL-AROUND OUTFLOW HAS BEEN THE PRIMARY FACTOR TO
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF 23W OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF AND FAST APPROACHING THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON DANAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON ITS CURRENT TRACK
THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 12,
THE SYSTEM WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE POLEWARD.
THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN VWS, COINCIDENT WITH THE POLEWARD MOTION, AND
THE SYSTEM BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
WILL SLOWLY DEGRADE THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 24, TY 23W WILL ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SASEBO, JAPAN, AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU
48, THE NOW STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE BUT
ON A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY AND CROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN
AND THE NORTHERN TIP OF HONSHU BEFORE EXITING BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
ITS RAPID DETERIORATION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS AT THE RECURVE POINT. THE JTWC
FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONW -
AND BIASED TOWARDS ECMWF - WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. //
NNNN
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#87 Postby stormkite » Sun Oct 06, 2013 10:13 pm

(FNN) 54 minute delivery (Mon) 11:07 October
Typhoon No. 24 of power very strong, expected to be closest to the Amami Oshima and Okinawa's main island. Then, there is a possibility that while maintaining the storm zone, between late evening and night of the 8th, Landing or approach, in Kyushu. 70 m in the Okinawa and Amami, maximum instantaneous wind speed you can expect during the 8th, has become such as 60 m in northern Kyushu. In addition, expected in the Amami and Okinawa, waves of 10 meters is expected, it is ferocious storm. With the approach of the typhoon, blow up suddenly. High waves and storms, it is necessary to strict vigilance.


Humm 70 m =about 156mph


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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#88 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:37 pm

Saved loop
Image

CDO has warmed significantly in the past hours

Image
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#89 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:42 pm

Looks like peak intensity was 145 knots, a category 5, but still a very powerful.



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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#90 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:45 pm

Tiny Yoron Island should get a category 3 eyewall hit. This should be a guarantee on the present course but I'll put the disclaimer anyway.



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#91 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:17 am

Poster over at another website chasing DANAS..he's on the Northern most tip of that island..and posting periodically. https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone?hc_location=stream
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#92 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:45 am

TPPN13 PGTW 070327

A. TYPHOON 23W (DANAS)
B. 07/0232Z
C. 25.9N
D. 129.4E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5.
ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: 06/2151Z 24.8N 130.7E WIND 06/2322Z 25.1N 130.4E SSMS

BERMEA
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#93 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 12:51 am

Amazing

Image

Image

Image
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#94 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:17 am

Radar indicates very intense eyewall coming onshore

Image
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#95 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 1:52 am

Wow very intense! Good luck to everyone!

Great looking annular typhoon!
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#96 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:11 am

Eye passing over Yoronjima.
Image
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#97 Postby beoumont » Mon Oct 07, 2013 3:59 am

So far, through 5 pm Japan tme (4 am EST) the reporting station, OKU. on the northern tip of Okinawa, which is located 761 feet above sea level: has reported a maximum instantaneos wind gust of 104 mph (46.5 m/s).

A storm chaser nearby named James has reported 953 mb. within a mile of that station; and he states (and the radar confirms) he was on the SW and W. edge of the eye.

Image

These readings might represent the peak values for this storm on the North of Okinawa; as this is where the center of the 25 mile eye made its closest approach (13 mile); and is now putting distance distance between the eye and land as it moves NW. The satellite loop shows some warming of the convection as the eye approaced; the whites mostly disappearing. Still, probably a good cat #3 and maybe even a marginal cat 4, based on the satellite, only. Japan weather service latest advisory stated maximum winds at 100 knts; for what that's worth.

Without any further data, if there is none, the extent of the damage will tell the story. And, of course subsequent video of the action will help determine the most extreme affects on the island.


Image
Last edited by beoumont on Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:30 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#98 Postby stormkite » Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:37 am

looks like further Nth shear will start to impact.
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#99 Postby josefk » Mon Oct 07, 2013 5:51 am

cycloneye wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:
dexterlabio wrote:So I just checked a page related to Okinawa on Facebook and majority of the posters was saying like they've been waiting for this storm for so long and that they are ready for it. :lol: looks like this will be the first direct landfall of a typhoon in the island since the streak of typhoons that hit them last year.



Well they have been in TCCORs for like 4 days now with the other one skirting them the other day This one well probably will be a little stronger conditions there They haven't been allowed to drink since Thursday haha some are getting irritated


Do you know which side of Okinawa is this cam located?

Image


That's looking south west from the Busena Hotel in Onna Village (west coast)
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Re: WPAC: DANAS - Typhoon

#100 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:18 am

Category 4 125 knots :eek:
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