BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

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BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#1 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:47 pm

90WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-124N-1005E
Image
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this invest will likely move to the Indian ocean
my eyes are glued on the area of convection between Palau and Yap (future 91W?) it is a lot more interesting than this invest.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#2 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Oct 04, 2013 1:59 pm

mrbagyo wrote:this invest will likely move to the Indian ocean
my eyes are glued on the area of convection between Palau and Yap (future 91W?) it is a lot more interesting than this invest.


Hang on there. We could be looking at Future Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Phailin on October 7th.

Image
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:52 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.9N 102.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 051119Z
WINDSAT IMAGE HINTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BANDING FEATURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. SINCE THE LLCC APPEARS DISORGANIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

might get a bit interesting once it heads consolidates in the bay of bengal...
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#4 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 05, 2013 7:31 pm

my eyes are glued on the area of convection between Palau and Yap (future 91W?) it is a lot more interesting than this invest.


haha. I'm wrong...
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Oct 06, 2013 4:05 am

GFS
Image
ECMWF
Image
NAVGEM
Image

it's gaining a lot of support from different models.

let's see if it can pull a Gay-ish intensification once over the Indian Ocean
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:27 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N
102.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 102.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
060120Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUES TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED
BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE,
WHICH APPEARS TO BE TUCKED UP IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF OF
THAILAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A SMALL
AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, JUST
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG VWS GRADIENT, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
CYCLONE THAT MAY CROSS OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

TXPQ26 KNES 061539
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 06/1432Z

C. 11.8N

D. 100.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR AS MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE BAY OF BENGAL.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

06/1125Z 11.7N 100.4E SSMIS


...KIBLER
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Oct 06, 2013 4:59 pm

GFS is very aggressive showing a strong TC to develop in the IO side after only 3 days

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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:27 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9N
102.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 98.5E, APPROXIMATELY 363 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
070108Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY
LITTLE ORGANIZATION. A 061720Z 12KM OSCAT PASS INDICATES AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA WITH 10 TO
15 KNOT WIND BARBS AND STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DYNAMIC
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CYCLONE
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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#9 Postby Grifforzer » Mon Oct 07, 2013 4:53 pm

India Meteorological Department

A Low Pressure Area over Tenasserim coast & adjoining north Andaman sea, now lies over north Andaman sea and adjoining Tenasserim coast.

It would concentrate into depression during next 24 hours and move slowly in west northwesterly direction initially.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#10 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Oct 08, 2013 3:40 am

Saved loop.
Image

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 98.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 98.0E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS TRACKED OFF THE MALAY PENINSULA
AND OVER WATER IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 071439Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW, AND SHALLOW
BANDING ELSEWHERE WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC. A 071439Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWED 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A DEFINED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#11 Postby jaguarjace » Tue Oct 08, 2013 4:49 am

India Meteorological Department

Time of issue: 1345 hours IST
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/02
Sub: Depression over north Andaman Sea: Pre Cyclone watch for North Andhra Pradesh and Orissa Coasts.

The depression over North Andaman Sea moved westward with a speed of 18 Kmph during past 3 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 08th October 2013 over north Andaman Sea near latitude 12.00N and longitude 95.5.00E, about 300 km east-northeast of Port Blair, 1350 km east-southeast of Paradip, 1470 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam. The system would intensify into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm by tomorrow. It would move west-northwestwards towards north Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coast during next 72 hours. Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at few places would occur over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next 48 hrs. Isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25cm) would occur over Andaman Islands during the same period. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph would prevail over Andaman Nicobar Islands and adjoining sea areas during next 48 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Nicobar Islands during this period. Fishermen of Andaman Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into the sea during next 48 hrs.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf
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#12 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:43 am

TCFA issued

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Re:

#13 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:46 am

'CaneFreak wrote:TCFA issued



WTIO21 PGTW 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 96.0E TO 14.3N 89.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080532Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 95.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
98.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF YANGON, MYANMAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN IMPROVED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE LLCC CONTINUES TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS UNDER
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE FURTHER CONSOLIDATION
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO AN STEADILY IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z.//
NNNN
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#14 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 7:39 pm

I'm extremely worried about what may come of this.
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:04 pm

A depression according to IMD. Next name in the list is 'Phailin'

Everyone in northeastern India should pay very close attention to the future development of this system
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:35 pm

Image

appears to be making landfall in north Andaman Island .. Port Blair reporting SW 35 mph

Upgraded to 02B by the JTWC
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Re: WPAC : INVEST 90W

#17 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:43 pm

WTIO31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080952ZOCT2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 13.2N 93.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 93.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.6N 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.2N 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.8N 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.5N 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.2N 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.0N 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.7N 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 93.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 554 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 082337Z
SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A SYMMETRIC AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 02B IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48 AS AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
INDIA, THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RE-CURVE
INTO NORTHEASTERN INDIA, JUST NORTH OF VISAKHAPATNAM. TC 02B IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE
ANDAMAN ISLANDS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28 TO 29C) SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL (NEAR TAU 84). OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 081000Z OCT 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 081000).//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC : Tropical Cyclone 02B

#18 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:47 pm

Obviously this is not a WPAC storm.....
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Re: WPAC : Tropical Cyclone 02B

#19 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:49 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Obviously this is not a WPAC storm.....


The disturbance formed in the South China Sea and crossed into the Bay of Bengal
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Re: BOB : Tropical Cyclone 02B

#20 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:50 pm

Moved thread from WPAC forum to the BAY of Bengal forum as it moved to this basin.
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