BOB : Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138789
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#201 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:29 pm

Oh boy. JTWC landfall around 140- 145kts.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22472
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#202 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 3:47 pm

Using the latest OSCAT pass, I measured the size of the 35kt wind field at about twice that on the latest JTWC advisory (180nm vs. 90nm).
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#203 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 4:57 pm

Image

Latest infrared
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#204 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 11, 2013 5:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:New IMD forecast is out. They estimate Dvorak of 6.0 and 105 kts. From what I've heard, they don't think the standard Dvorak estimates apply to the BoB. Looks closer to 7.5 to me (150 kts).

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/rsmc.pdf


Because a TC at 90 east behaves much differently then one at 120 east.
0 likes   

Airboy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 435
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 10:41 am

#205 Postby Airboy » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:03 pm

Ehm... is this not a bit... strange?

"The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted wind speeds of 210-220 km/hr at the time of landfall, but resisted upgrading tropical storm Phailin from a 'Very Severe Cyclone' to a 'Super Cyclone'."

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/phail ... e/1181386/
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#206 Postby RL3AO » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:09 pm

Surge to 3 meters? Thats worse than the low wind forecast IMO.
0 likes   

Airboy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 435
Joined: Wed Jul 27, 2011 10:41 am

Re:

#207 Postby Airboy » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:15 pm

RL3AO wrote:Surge to 3 meters? Thats worse than the low wind forecast IMO.


With the direction and the angle of the coast it will be bad.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#208 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:36 pm

another eyewall replacement is starting. But likely has started too late

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#209 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:10 pm

it's very rare to have a category 5 in the BOB so i am quite surprised...
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#210 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:19 pm

I'd be shocked if the storm surge is under 20 feet, with 25 feet or more not out of the question. Intensity looks to be about 150 kt, back there after weakening in the ERC.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#211 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:19 pm

11/2030 UTC 17.2N 86.8E T7.0/7.0 PHAILIN -- Bay of Bengal
0 likes   

User avatar
jaguarjace
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 975
Age: 29
Joined: Sat Jun 11, 2011 7:38 am
Location: Khon Kaen, Thailand

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#212 Postby jaguarjace » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:20 pm

WOW!
Image
0 likes   
Owner of the Tropical Archive YouTube channel
Web Developer at Force Thirteen
Twitter/X : @force13_support

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#213 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:21 pm

Hearing some surface observation or special plane on Twitter measured a pressure of 883mb. That would be the lowest ever in the Indian Ocean...
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#214 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:22 pm

just the 2nd category 5 this year ...

Super Typhoon Usagi...
Cyclone Phailin...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#215 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:22 pm

what tweet?
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#216 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:30 pm

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1310111800

Source of the measurement (actually 884mb).
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

#217 Postby Alyono » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:31 pm

satellite estimate. Not an observation
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#218 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:31 pm


The eye is warming and expanding, may get to WMG status yields a DT of 7.5 just before landfall
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33391
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#219 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:41 pm

It's been trending north too, which is bad since that is more heavily populated...
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: BOB : Very Severe Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN (02B)

#220 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 7:47 pm

This is truly a stunning tropical cyclone! Never thought I would even see a fully fledged Category 5 in the Bay of Bengal, this is almost the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane in November. As far as its 918 mbar pressure, that alone is rarely achieved even in the WPAC, so far less for how rare it is in one of the least active basins on Earth. Seems almost unrealistic.

:shocked!:
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests